Dieterich Lawson

Dieterich Lawson, Allan Raventós, Andrew Warrington et al.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is an inference algorithm for state space models that approximates the posterior by sampling from a sequence of target distributions. The target distributions are often chosen to be the filtering distributions, but these ignore information from future observations, leading to practical and theoretical limitations in inference and model learning. We introduce SIXO, a method that instead learns targets that approximate the smoothing distributions, incorporating information from all observations. The key idea is to use density ratio estimation to fit functions that warp the filtering distributions into the smoothing distributions. We then use SMC with these learned targets to define a variational objective for model and proposal learning. SIXO yields provably tighter log marginal lower bounds and offers significantly more accurate posterior inferences and parameter estimates in a variety of domains.

Dieterich Lawson, Michael Li, Scott Linderman

Sequential latent variable models (SLVMs) are essential tools in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from healthcare to neuroscience. As their flexibility increases, analytic inference and model learning can become challenging, necessitating approximate methods. Here we introduce neural adaptive smoothing via twisting (NAS-X), a method that extends reweighted wake-sleep (RWS) to the sequential setting by using smoothing sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to estimate intractable posterior expectations. Combining RWS and smoothing SMC allows NAS-X to provide low-bias and low-variance gradient estimates, and fit both discrete and continuous latent variable models. We illustrate the theoretical advantages of NAS-X over previous methods and explore these advantages empirically in a variety of tasks, including a challenging application to mechanistic models of neuronal dynamics. These experiments show that NAS-X substantially outperforms previous VI- and RWS-based methods in inference and model learning, achieving lower parameter error and tighter likelihood bounds.

Ian Osband, Zheng Wen, Seyed Mohammad Asghari et al.

Predictive distributions quantify uncertainties ignored by point estimates. This paper introduces The Neural Testbed: an open-source benchmark for controlled and principled evaluation of agents that generate such predictions. Crucially, the testbed assesses agents not only on the quality of their marginal predictions per input, but also on their joint predictions across many inputs. We evaluate a range of agents using a simple neural network data generating process. Our results indicate that some popular Bayesian deep learning agents do not fare well with joint predictions, even when they can produce accurate marginal predictions. We also show that the quality of joint predictions drives performance in downstream decision tasks. We find these results are robust across choice a wide range of generative models, and highlight the practical importance of joint predictions to the community.

Dieterich Lawson, George Tucker, Bo Dai et al.

Energy-based models (EBMs) are powerful probabilistic models, but suffer from intractable sampling and density evaluation due to the partition function. As a result, inference in EBMs relies on approximate sampling algorithms, leading to a mismatch between the model and inference. Motivated by this, we consider the sampler-induced distribution as the model of interest and maximize the likelihood of this model. This yields a class of energy-inspired models (EIMs) that incorporate learned energy functions while still providing exact samples and tractable log-likelihood lower bounds. We describe and evaluate three instantiations of such models based on truncated rejection sampling, self-normalized importance sampling, and Hamiltonian importance sampling. These models outperform or perform comparably to the recently proposed Learned Accept/Reject Sampling algorithm and provide new insights on ranking Noise Contrastive Estimation and Contrastive Predictive Coding. Moreover, EIMs allow us to generalize a recent connection between multi-sample variational lower bounds and auxiliary variable variational inference. We show how recent variational bounds can be unified with EIMs as the variational family.

George Tucker, Dieterich Lawson, Shixiang Gu et al.

Deep latent variable models have become a popular model choice due to the scalable learning algorithms introduced by (Kingma & Welling, 2013; Rezende et al., 2014). These approaches maximize a variational lower bound on the intractable log likelihood of the observed data. Burda et al. (2015) introduced a multi-sample variational bound, IWAE, that is at least as tight as the standard variational lower bound and becomes increasingly tight as the number of samples increases. Counterintuitively, the typical inference network gradient estimator for the IWAE bound performs poorly as the number of samples increases (Rainforth et al., 2018; Le et al., 2018). Roeder et al. (2017) propose an improved gradient estimator, however, are unable to show it is unbiased. We show that it is in fact biased and that the bias can be estimated efficiently with a second application of the reparameterization trick. The doubly reparameterized gradient (DReG) estimator does not suffer as the number of samples increases, resolving the previously raised issues. The same idea can be used to improve many recently introduced training techniques for latent variable models. In particular, we show that this estimator reduces the variance of the IWAE gradient, the reweighted wake-sleep update (RWS) (Bornschein & Bengio, 2014), and the jackknife variational inference (JVI) gradient (Nowozin, 2018). Finally, we show that this computationally efficient, unbiased drop-in gradient estimator translates to improved performance for all three objectives on several modeling tasks.

Chung-Cheng Chiu, Dieterich Lawson, Yuping Luo et al.

Generative models have long been the dominant approach for speech recognition. The success of these models however relies on the use of sophisticated recipes and complicated machinery that is not easily accessible to non-practitioners. Recent innovations in Deep Learning have given rise to an alternative - discriminative models called Sequence-to-Sequence models, that can almost match the accuracy of state of the art generative models. While these models are easy to train as they can be trained end-to-end in a single step, they have a practical limitation that they can only be used for offline recognition. This is because the models require that the entirety of the input sequence be available at the beginning of inference, an assumption that is not valid for instantaneous speech recognition. To address this problem, online sequence-to-sequence models were recently introduced. These models are able to start producing outputs as data arrives, and the model feels confident enough to output partial transcripts. These models, like sequence-to-sequence are causal - the output produced by the model until any time, $t$, affects the features that are computed subsequently. This makes the model inherently more powerful than generative models that are unable to change features that are computed from the data. This paper highlights two main contributions - an improvement to online sequence-to-sequence model training, and its application to noisy settings with mixed speech from two speakers.

Chris J. Maddison, Dieterich Lawson, George Tucker et al.

When used as a surrogate objective for maximum likelihood estimation in latent variable models, the evidence lower bound (ELBO) produces state-of-the-art results. Inspired by this, we consider the extension of the ELBO to a family of lower bounds defined by a particle filter's estimator of the marginal likelihood, the filtering variational objectives (FIVOs). FIVOs take the same arguments as the ELBO, but can exploit a model's sequential structure to form tighter bounds. We present results that relate the tightness of FIVO's bound to the variance of the particle filter's estimator by considering the generic case of bounds defined as log-transformed likelihood estimators. Experimentally, we show that training with FIVO results in substantial improvements over training the same model architecture with the ELBO on sequential data.

Dieterich Lawson, Chung-Cheng Chiu, George Tucker et al.

There has recently been significant interest in hard attention models for tasks such as object recognition, visual captioning and speech recognition. Hard attention can offer benefits over soft attention such as decreased computational cost, but training hard attention models can be difficult because of the discrete latent variables they introduce. Previous work used REINFORCE and Q-learning to approach these issues, but those methods can provide high-variance gradient estimates and be slow to train. In this paper, we tackle the problem of learning hard attention for a sequential task using variational inference methods, specifically the recently introduced VIMCO and NVIL. Furthermore, we propose a novel baseline that adapts VIMCO to this setting. We demonstrate our method on a phoneme recognition task in clean and noisy environments and show that our method outperforms REINFORCE, with the difference being greater for a more complicated task.

George Tucker, Andriy Mnih, Chris J. Maddison et al.

Learning in models with discrete latent variables is challenging due to high variance gradient estimators. Generally, approaches have relied on control variates to reduce the variance of the REINFORCE estimator. Recent work (Jang et al. 2016, Maddison et al. 2016) has taken a different approach, introducing a continuous relaxation of discrete variables to produce low-variance, but biased, gradient estimates. In this work, we combine the two approaches through a novel control variate that produces low-variance, \emph{unbiased} gradient estimates. Then, we introduce a modification to the continuous relaxation and show that the tightness of the relaxation can be adapted online, removing it as a hyperparameter. We show state-of-the-art variance reduction on several benchmark generative modeling tasks, generally leading to faster convergence to a better final log-likelihood.

Chris J. Maddison, Dieterich Lawson, George Tucker et al.

The policy gradients of the expected return objective can react slowly to rare rewards. Yet, in some cases agents may wish to emphasize the low or high returns regardless of their probability. Borrowing from the economics and control literature, we review the risk-sensitive value function that arises from an exponential utility and illustrate its effects on an example. This risk-sensitive value function is not always applicable to reinforcement learning problems, so we introduce the particle value function defined by a particle filter over the distributions of an agent's experience, which bounds the risk-sensitive one. We illustrate the benefit of the policy gradients of this objective in Cliffworld.

Augustus Odena, Dieterich Lawson, Christopher Olah

Machine learning models are often used at test-time subject to constraints and trade-offs not present at training-time. For example, a computer vision model operating on an embedded device may need to perform real-time inference, or a translation model operating on a cell phone may wish to bound its average compute time in order to be power-efficient. In this work we describe a mixture-of-experts model and show how to change its test-time resource-usage on a per-input basis using reinforcement learning. We test our method on a small MNIST-based example.

Colin Raffel, Dieterich Lawson

We describe a mechanism for subsampling sequences and show how to compute its expected output so that it can be trained with standard backpropagation. We test this approach on a simple toy problem and discuss its shortcomings.