Qinglin Jia

Chuhan Wu, Jingjie Li, Qinglin Jia et al. · tencent-ai

Accurate customer lifetime value (LTV) prediction can help service providers optimize their marketing policies in customer-centric applications. However, the heavy sparsity of consumption events and the interference of data variance and noise obstruct LTV estimation. Many existing LTV prediction methods directly train a single-view LTV predictor on consumption samples, which may yield inaccurate and even biased knowledge extraction. In this paper, we propose a contrastive multi-view framework for LTV prediction, which is a plug-and-play solution compatible with various backbone models. It synthesizes multiple heterogeneous LTV regressors with complementary knowledge to improve model robustness and captures sample relatedness via contrastive learning to mitigate the dependency on data abundance. Concretely, we use a decomposed scheme that converts the LTV prediction problem into a combination of estimating consumption probability and payment amount. To alleviate the impact of noisy data on model learning, we propose a multi-view framework that jointly optimizes multiple types of regressors with diverse characteristics and advantages to encode and fuse comprehensive knowledge. To fully exploit the potential of limited training samples, we propose a hybrid contrastive learning method to help capture the relatedness between samples in both classification and regression tasks. We conduct extensive experiments on a real-world game LTV prediction dataset and the results validate the effectiveness of our method. We have deployed our solution online in Huawei's mobile game center and achieved 32.26% of total payment amount gains.

Qinglin Jia, Zhaocheng Du, Chuhan Wu et al.

In most real-world online advertising systems, advertisers typically have diverse customer acquisition goals. A common solution is to use multi-task learning (MTL) to train a unified model on post-click data to estimate the conversion rate (CVR) for these diverse targets. In practice, CVR prediction often encounters missing conversion data as many advertisers submit only a subset of user conversion actions due to privacy or other constraints, making the labels of multi-task data incomplete. If the model is trained on all available samples where advertisers submit user conversion actions, it may struggle when deployed to serve a subset of advertisers targeting specific conversion actions, as the training and deployment data distributions are mismatched. While considerable MTL efforts have been made, a long-standing challenge is how to effectively train a unified model with the incomplete and skewed multi-label data. In this paper, we propose a fine-grained Knowledge transfer framework for Asymmetric Multi-Label data (KAML). We introduce an attribution-driven masking strategy (ADM) to better utilize data with asymmetric multi-label data in training. However, the more relaxed masking in ADM is a double-edged sword: it provides additional training signals but also introduces noise due to skewed data. To address this, we propose a hierarchical knowledge extraction mechanism (HKE) to model the sample discrepancy within the target task tower. Finally, to maximize the utility of unlabeled samples, we incorporate ranking loss strategy to further enhance our model. The effectiveness of KAML has been demonstrated through comprehensive evaluations on offline industry datasets and online A/B tests, which show significant performance improvements over existing MTL baselines.

Jiyuan Ren, Zhaocheng Du, Zhihao Wen et al.

As large language models (LLMs) advance, their ability to perform in-context learning and few-shot language generation has improved significantly. This has spurred using LLMs to produce high-quality synthetic data to enhance the performance of smaller models like online retrievers or weak LLMs. However, LLM-generated synthetic data often differs from the real data in key language attributes (e.g., styles, tones, content proportions, etc.). As a result, mixing these synthetic data directly with real data may distort the original data distribution, potentially hindering performance improvements. To solve this, we introduce SynAlign: a synthetic data generation and filtering framework based on key attribute distribution matching. Before generation, SynAlign employs an uncertainty tracker surrogated by the Gaussian Process model to iteratively select data clusters distinct from selected ones as demonstrations for new data synthesis, facilitating the efficient exploration diversity of the real data. Then, a latent attribute reasoning method is employed: the LLM summarizes linguistic attributes of demonstrations and then synthesizes new data based on them. This approach facilitates synthesizing diverse data with linguistic attributes that appear in real data.After generation, the Maximum Mean Discrepancy is used as the objective function to learn the sampling weight of each synthetic data, ensuring distribution matching with the real data. Our experiments on multiple text prediction tasks show significant performance improvements. We also conducted an online A/B test on an online retriever to demonstrate SynAlign's effectiveness.

Yuang Zhao, Chuhan Wu, Qinglin Jia et al.

Accurately predicting the probabilities of user feedback, such as clicks and conversions, is critical for advertisement ranking and bidding. However, there often exist unwanted mismatches between predicted probabilities and true likelihoods due to the rapid shift of data distributions and intrinsic model biases. Calibration aims to address this issue by post-processing model predictions, and field-aware calibration can adjust model output on different feature field values to satisfy fine-grained advertising demands. Unfortunately, the observed samples corresponding to certain field values can be seriously limited to make confident calibrations, which may yield bias amplification and online disturbance. In this paper, we propose a confidence-aware multi-field calibration method, which adaptively adjusts the calibration intensity based on confidence levels derived from sample statistics. It also utilizes multiple fields for joint model calibration according to their importance to mitigate the impact of data sparsity on a single field. Extensive offline and online experiments show the superiority of our method in boosting advertising performance and reducing prediction deviations.

Xianquan Wang, Zhaocheng Du, Jieming Zhu et al.

Feature interaction modeling is crucial for deep recommendation models. A common and effective approach is to construct explicit feature combinations to enhance model performance. However, in practice, only a small fraction of these combinations are truly informative. Thus it is essential to select useful feature combinations to reduce noise and manage memory consumption. While feature selection methods have been extensively studied, they are typically limited to selecting individual features. Extending these methods for high-order feature combination selection presents a significant challenge due to the exponential growth in time complexity when evaluating feature combinations one by one. In this paper, we propose $\textbf{TayFCS}$, a lightweight feature combination selection method that significantly improves model performance. Specifically, we propose the Taylor Expansion Scorer (TayScorer) module for field-wise Taylor expansion on the base model. Instead of evaluating all potential feature combinations' importance by repeatedly running experiments with feature adding and removal, this scorer only needs to approximate the importance based on their sub-components' gradients. This can be simply computed with one backward pass based on a trained recommendation model. To further reduce information redundancy among feature combinations and their sub-components, we introduce Logistic Regression Elimination (LRE), which estimates the corresponding information gain based on the model prediction performance. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets validate both the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach. Furthermore, online A/B test results demonstrate its practical applicability and commercial value.