B. G. Palm

B. G. Palm, F. M. Bayer, R. J. Cintra

The Rayleigh regression model was recently proposed for modeling amplitude values of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image pixels. However, inferences from such model are based on the maximum likelihood estimators, which can be biased for small signal lengths. The Rayleigh regression model for SAR images often takes into account small pixel windows, which may lead to inaccurate results. In this letter, we introduce bias-adjusted estimators tailored for the Rayleigh regression model based on: (i) the Cox and Snell's method; (ii) the Firth's scheme; and (iii) the parametric bootstrap method. We present numerical experiments considering synthetic and actual SAR data sets. The bias-adjusted estimators yield nearly unbiased estimates and accurate modeling results.

B. G. Palm, D. I. Alves, V. T. Vu et al.

Change detection is an important synthetic aperture radar (SAR) application, usually used to detect changes on the ground scene measurements in different moments in time. Traditionally, change detection algorithm (CDA) is mainly designed for two synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images retrieved at different instants. However, more images can be used to improve the algorithms performance, witch emerges as a research topic on SAR change detection. Image stack information can be treated as a data series over time and can be modeled by autoregressive (AR) models. Thus, we present some initial findings on SAR change detection based on image stack considering AR models. Applying AR model for each pixel position in the image stack, we obtained an estimated image of the ground scene which can be used as a reference image for CDA. The experimental results reveal that ground scene estimates by the AR models is accurate and can be used for change detection applications.

B. G. Palm, F. M. Bayer, R. Machado et al.

The presence of outliers (anomalous values) in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and the misspecification in statistical image models may result in inaccurate inferences. To avoid such issues, the Rayleigh regression model based on a robust estimation process is proposed as a more realistic approach to model this type of data. This paper aims at obtaining Rayleigh regression model parameter estimators robust to the presence of outliers. The proposed approach considered the weighted maximum likelihood method and was submitted to numerical experiments using simulated and measured SAR images. Monte Carlo simulations were employed for the numerical assessment of the proposed robust estimator performance in finite signal lengths, their sensitivity to outliers, and the breakdown point. For instance, the non-robust estimators show a relative bias value $65$-fold larger than the results provided by the robust approach in corrupted signals. In terms of sensitivity analysis and break down point, the robust scheme resulted in a reduction of about $96\%$ and $10\%$, respectively, in the mean absolute value of both measures, in compassion to the non-robust estimators. Moreover, two SAR data sets were used to compare the ground type and anomaly detection results of the proposed robust scheme with competing methods in the literature.

B. G. Palm, F. M. Bayer, R. J. Cintra

In this paper, we propose five prediction intervals for the beta autoregressive moving average model. This model is suitable for modeling and forecasting variables that assume values in the interval $(0,1)$. Two of the proposed prediction intervals are based on approximations considering the normal distribution and the quantile function of the beta distribution. We also consider bootstrap-based prediction intervals, namely: (i) bootstrap prediction errors (BPE) interval; (ii) bias-corrected and acceleration (BCa) prediction interval; and (iii) percentile prediction interval based on the quantiles of the bootstrap-predicted values for two different bootstrapping schemes. The proposed prediction intervals were evaluated according to Monte Carlo simulations. The BCa prediction interval offered the best performance among the evaluated intervals, showing lower coverage rate distortion and small average length. We applied our methodology for predicting the water level of the Cantareira water supply system in São Paulo, Brazil.