9.0CYJun 1
The Dynamic and Endogenous Behavior of Re-Offense Risk: An Agent-Based Simulation Study of Treatment Allocation in Incarceration Diversion ProgramsChuwen Zhang, Pengyi Shi, Amy Ward
Incarceration-diversion treatment programs aim to improve societal reintegration and reduce recidivism, but limited capacity forces policymakers to make prioritization decisions that often rely on risk assessment tools. While predictive, these tools typically treat risk as a static, individual attribute, which overlooks how risk evolves over time and how treatment decisions shape outcomes through social interactions. In this paper, we develop a new framework that models reoffending risk as a human-system interaction, linking individual behavior with system-level dynamics and endogenous community feedback. Using an agent-based simulation calibrated to U.S. probation data, we evaluate treatment allocation policies under different capacity constraints and incarceration settings. Our results show that no single prioritization policy dominates. Instead, policy effectiveness depends on temporal windows and system parameters: prioritizing low-risk individuals performs better when long-term trajectories matter, while prioritizing high-risk individuals becomes more effective in the short term or when incarceration leads to shorter monitoring periods. These findings highlight the need to evaluate risk-based decision systems as sociotechnical systems with long-term accountability, rather than as isolated predictive tools.
OCAug 21, 2023
A Homogenization Approach for Gradient-Dominated Stochastic OptimizationJiyuan Tan, Chenyu Xue, Chuwen Zhang et al.
Gradient dominance property is a condition weaker than strong convexity, yet sufficiently ensures global convergence even in non-convex optimization. This property finds wide applications in machine learning, reinforcement learning (RL), and operations management. In this paper, we propose the stochastic homogeneous second-order descent method (SHSODM) for stochastic functions enjoying gradient dominance property based on a recently proposed homogenization approach. Theoretically, we provide its sample complexity analysis, and further present an enhanced result by incorporating variance reduction techniques. Our findings show that SHSODM matches the best-known sample complexity achieved by other second-order methods for gradient-dominated stochastic optimization but without cubic regularization. Empirically, since the homogenization approach only relies on solving extremal eigenvector problem at each iteration instead of Newton-type system, our methods gain the advantage of cheaper computational cost and robustness in ill-conditioned problems. Numerical experiments on several RL tasks demonstrate the better performance of SHSODM compared to other off-the-shelf methods.
OCJul 30, 2022
DRSOM: A Dimension Reduced Second-Order MethodChuwen Zhang, Dongdong Ge, Chang He et al.
In this paper, we propose a Dimension-Reduced Second-Order Method (DRSOM) for convex and nonconvex (unconstrained) optimization. Under a trust-region-like framework, our method preserves the convergence of the second-order method while using only curvature information in a few directions. Consequently, the computational overhead of our method remains comparable to the first-order such as the gradient descent method. Theoretically, we show that the method has a local quadratic convergence and a global convergence rate of $O(ε^{-3/2})$ to satisfy the first-order and second-order conditions if the subspace satisfies a commonly adopted approximated Hessian assumption. We further show that this assumption can be removed if we perform a corrector step using a Krylov-like method periodically at the end stage of the algorithm. The applicability and performance of DRSOM are exhibited by various computational experiments, including $L_2 - L_p$ minimization, CUTEst problems, and sensor network localization.