Alexander J. Bisberg

Alexander J. Bisberg, Emilio Ferrara

Win prediction is crucial to understanding skill modeling, teamwork and matchmaking in esports. In this paper we propose GCN-WP, a semi-supervised win prediction model for esports based on graph convolutional networks. This model learns the structure of an esports league over the course of a season (1 year) and makes predictions on another similar league. This model integrates over 30 features about the match and players and employs graph convolution to classify games based on their neighborhood. Our model achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy when compared to machine learning or skill rating models for LoL. The framework is generalizable so it can easily be extended to other multiplayer online games.

Emily Chen, Alexander J. Bisberg, Dmitri Williams et al.

This paper examines how player flexibility -- a player's willingness to engage in a breadth of options or specialize -- manifests across two gaming environments: League of Legends (League) and Teamfight Tactics (TFT). We analyze the gameplay decisions of 4,830 players who have played at least 50 competitive games in both titles and explore cross-game dynamics of behavior retention and consistency. Our work introduces a novel cross-game analysis that tracks the same players' behavior across two different environments, reducing self-selection bias. Our findings reveal that while games incentivize different behaviors (specialization in League versus flexibility in TFT) for performance-based success, players exhibit consistent behavior across platforms. This study contributes to long-standing debate about agency versus structure, showing individual agency may be more predictive of cross-platform behavior than game-imposed structure in competitive settings. These insights offer implications for game developers, designers and researchers interested in building systems to promote behavior change.