Alfredo Vaccaro

Fabrizio De Caro, Adam J. Collin, Alfredo Vaccaro

This paper explores the effectiveness of data-driven models to predict voltage excursion events in power systems using simple categorical labels. By treating the prediction as a categorical classification task, the workflow is characterized by a low computational and data burden. A proof-of-concept case study on a real portion of the Italian 150 kV sub-transmission network, which hosts a significant amount of wind power generation, demonstrates the general validity of the proposal and offers insight into the strengths and weaknesses of several widely utilized prediction models for this application.

Alejandro Morales-Hernández, Fabrizio De Caroa, Gian Marco Paldino et al.

Decision support systems are essential for maintaining grid stability in low-carbon power systems, such as wind power plants, by providing real-time alerts to control room operators regarding potential events, including Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs). These early warnings enable the timely initiation of more detailed system stability assessments and preventive actions. However, forecasting these events is challenging due to the inherent class imbalance in WPRE datasets, where ramp events are less frequent (typically less than 15\% of observed events) compared to normal conditions. Ignoring this characteristic undermines the performance of conventional machine learning models, which often favor the majority class. This paper introduces a novel methodology for WPRE forecasting as a multivariate time series classification task and proposes a data preprocessing strategy that extracts features from recent power observations and masks unavailable ramp information, making it integrable with traditional real-time ramp identification tools. Particularly, the proposed methodology combines majority-class undersampling and ensemble learning to enhance wind ramp event forecasting under class imbalance. Numerical simulations conducted on a real-world dataset demonstrate the superiority of our approach, achieving over 85% accuracy and 88% weighted F1 score, outperforming benchmark classifiers.