Stefano Marano

Paolo Braca, Leonardo M. Millefiori, Augusto Aubry et al.

We study the performance -- and specifically the rate at which the error probability converges to zero -- of Machine Learning (ML) classification techniques. Leveraging the theory of large deviations, we provide the mathematical conditions for a ML classifier to exhibit error probabilities that vanish exponentially, say $\sim \exp\left(-n\,I + o(n) \right)$, where $n$ is the number of informative observations available for testing (or another relevant parameter, such as the size of the target in an image) and $I$ is the error rate. Such conditions depend on the Fenchel-Legendre transform of the cumulant-generating function of the Data-Driven Decision Function (D3F, i.e., what is thresholded before the final binary decision is made) learned in the training phase. As such, the D3F and, consequently, the related error rate $I$, depend on the given training set, which is assumed of finite size. Interestingly, these conditions can be verified and tested numerically exploiting the available dataset, or a synthetic dataset, generated according to the available information on the underlying statistical model. In other words, the classification error probability convergence to zero and its rate can be computed on a portion of the dataset available for training. Coherently with the large deviations theory, we can also establish the convergence, for $n$ large enough, of the normalized D3F statistic to a Gaussian distribution. This property is exploited to set a desired asymptotic false alarm probability, which empirically turns out to be accurate even for quite realistic values of $n$. Furthermore, approximate error probability curves $\sim ζ_n \exp\left(-n\,I \right)$ are provided, thanks to the refined asymptotic derivation (often referred to as exact asymptotics), where $ζ_n$ represents the most representative sub-exponential terms of the error probabilities.

Stefano Marano, Ali H. Sayed

This work focuses on the development of a new family of decision-making algorithms for adaptation and learning, which are specifically tailored to decision problems and are constructed by building up on first principles from decision theory. A key observation is that estimation and decision problems are structurally different and, therefore, algorithms that have proven successful for the former need not perform well when adjusted for decision problems. We propose a new scheme, referred to as BLLR (barrier log-likelihood ratio algorithm) and demonstrate its applicability to real-data from the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. The results illustrate the ability of the design tool to track the different phases of the outbreak.

Anshuka Rangi, Massimo Franceschetti, Stefano Marano

We study "active" decision making over sensor networks where the sensors' sequential probing actions are actively chosen by continuously learning from past observations. We consider two network settings: with and without central coordination. In the first case, the network nodes interact with each other through a central entity, which plays the role of a fusion center. In the second case, the network nodes interact in a fully distributed fashion. In both of these scenarios, we propose sequential and adaptive hypothesis tests extending the classic Chernoff test. We compare the performance of the proposed tests to the optimal sequential test. In the presence of a fusion center, our test achieves the same asymptotic optimality of the Chernoff test, minimizing the risk, expressed by the expected cost required to reach a decision plus the expected cost of making a wrong decision, when the observation cost per unit time tends to zero. The test is also asymptotically optimal in the higher moments of the time required to reach a decision. Additionally, the test is parsimonious in terms of communications, and the expected number of channel uses per network node tends to a small constant. In the distributed setup, our test achieves the same asymptotic optimality of Chernoff's test, up to a multiplicative constant in terms of both risk and the higher moments of the decision time. Additionally, the test is parsimonious in terms of communications in comparison to state-of-the-art schemes proposed in the literature. The analysis of these tests is also extended to account for message quantization and communication over channels with random erasures.