Berent Ånund Strømnes Lunde

Morten Blørstad, Berent Å. S. Lunde, Nello Blaser

Updating machine learning models with new information usually improves their predictive performance, yet, in many applications, it is also desirable to avoid changing the model predictions too much. This property is called stability. In most cases when stability matters, so does explainability. We therefore focus on the stability of an inherently explainable machine learning method, namely regression trees. We aim to use the notion of empirical stability and design algorithms for updating regression trees that provide a way to balance between predictability and empirical stability. To achieve this, we propose a regularization method, where data points are weighted based on the uncertainty in the initial model. The balance between predictability and empirical stability can be adjusted through hyperparameters. This regularization method is evaluated in terms of loss and stability and assessed on a broad range of data characteristics. The results show that the proposed update method improves stability while achieving similar or better predictive performance. This shows that it is possible to achieve both predictive and stable results when updating regression trees.

Berent Ånund Strømnes Lunde, Tore Selland Kleppe

agtboost is an R package implementing fast gradient tree boosting computations in a manner similar to other established frameworks such as xgboost and LightGBM, but with significant decreases in computation time and required mathematical and technical knowledge. The package automatically takes care of split/no-split decisions and selects the number of trees in the gradient tree boosting ensemble, i.e., agtboost adapts the complexity of the ensemble automatically to the information in the data. All of this is done during a single training run, which is made possible by utilizing developments in information theory for tree algorithms {\tt arXiv:2008.05926v1 [stat.ME]}. agtboost also comes with a feature importance function that eliminates the common practice of inserting noise features. Further, a useful model validation function performs the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the learned distribution.

Berent Ånund Strømnes Lunde, Tore Selland Kleppe, Hans Julius Skaug

An information theoretic approach to learning the complexity of classification and regression trees and the number of trees in gradient tree boosting is proposed. The optimism (test loss minus training loss) of the greedy leaf splitting procedure is shown to be the maximum of a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process, from which a generalization-error based information criterion is formed. The proposed procedure allows fast local model selection without cross validation based hyper parameter tuning, and hence efficient and automatic comparison among the large number of models performed during each boosting iteration. Relative to xgboost, speedups on numerical experiments ranges from around 10 to about 1400, at similar predictive-power measured in terms of test-loss.