Shantanu Gupta

Shantanu Gupta, David Childers, Zachary C. Lipton

Even when the causal graph underlying our data is unknown, we can use observational data to narrow down the possible values that an average treatment effect (ATE) can take by (1) identifying the graph up to a Markov equivalence class; and (2) estimating that ATE for each graph in the class. While the PC algorithm can identify this class under strong faithfulness assumptions, it can be computationally prohibitive. Fortunately, only the local graph structure around the treatment is required to identify the set of possible ATE values, a fact exploited by local discovery algorithms to improve computational efficiency. In this paper, we introduce Local Discovery using Eager Collider Checks (LDECC), a new local causal discovery algorithm that leverages unshielded colliders to orient the treatment's parents differently from existing methods. We show that there exist graphs where LDECC exponentially outperforms existing local discovery algorithms and vice versa. Moreover, we show that LDECC and existing algorithms rely on different faithfulness assumptions, leveraging this insight to weaken the assumptions for identifying the set of possible ATE values.

Tom Yan, Shantanu Gupta, Zachary Lipton

Faced with data-driven policies, individuals will manipulate their features to obtain favorable decisions. While earlier works cast these manipulations as undesirable gaming, recent works have adopted a more nuanced causal framing in which manipulations can improve outcomes of interest, and setting coherent mechanisms requires accounting for both predictive accuracy and improvement of the outcome. Typically, these works focus on known causal graphs, consisting only of an outcome and its parents. In this paper, we introduce a general framework in which an outcome and n observed features are related by an arbitrary unknown graph and manipulations are restricted by a fixed budget and cost structure. We develop algorithms that leverage strategic responses to discover the causal graph in a finite number of steps. Given this graph structure, we can then derive mechanisms that trade off between accuracy and improvement. Altogether, our work deepens links between causal discovery and incentive design and provides a more nuanced view of learning under causal strategic prediction.

Jacqueline Maasch, Weishen Pan, Shantanu Gupta et al.

Causal discovery is crucial for causal inference in observational studies, as it can enable the identification of valid adjustment sets (VAS) for unbiased effect estimation. However, global causal discovery is notoriously hard in the nonparametric setting, with exponential time and sample complexity in the worst case. To address this, we propose local discovery by partitioning (LDP): a local causal discovery method that is tailored for downstream inference tasks without requiring parametric and pretreatment assumptions. LDP is a constraint-based procedure that returns a VAS for an exposure-outcome pair under latent confounding, given sufficient conditions. The total number of independence tests performed is worst-case quadratic with respect to the cardinality of the variable set. Asymptotic theoretical guarantees are numerically validated on synthetic graphs. Adjustment sets from LDP yield less biased and more precise average treatment effect estimates than baseline discovery algorithms, with LDP outperforming on confounder recall, runtime, and test count for VAS discovery. Notably, LDP ran at least 1300x faster than baselines on a benchmark.

Shantanu Gupta, Cheng Zhang, Agrin Hilmkil

For a given causal question, it is important to efficiently decide which causal inference method to use for a given dataset. This is challenging because causal methods typically rely on complex and difficult-to-verify assumptions, and cross-validation is not applicable since ground truth causal quantities are unobserved. In this work, we propose CAusal Method Predictor (CAMP), a framework for predicting the best method for a given dataset. To this end, we generate datasets from a diverse set of synthetic causal models, score the candidate methods, and train a model to directly predict the highest-scoring method for that dataset. Next, by formulating a self-supervised pre-training objective centered on dataset assumptions relevant for causal inference, we significantly reduce the need for costly labeled data and enhance training efficiency. Our strategy learns to map implicit dataset properties to the best method in a data-driven manner. In our experiments, we focus on method prediction for causal discovery. CAMP outperforms selecting any individual candidate method and demonstrates promising generalization to unseen semi-synthetic and real-world benchmarks.

Vibhhu Sharma, Shantanu Gupta, Nil-Jana Akpinar et al.

As recommender systems become widely deployed in different domains, they increasingly influence their users' beliefs and preferences. Auditing recommender systems is crucial as it not only ensures the continuous improvement of recommendation algorithms but also safeguards against potential issues like biases and ethical concerns. In this paper, we view recommender system auditing from a causal lens and provide a general recipe for defining auditing metrics. Under this general causal auditing framework, we categorize existing auditing metrics and identify gaps in them -- notably, the lack of metrics for auditing user agency while accounting for the multi-step dynamics of the recommendation process. We leverage our framework and propose two classes of such metrics:future- and past-reacheability and stability, that measure the ability of a user to influence their own and other users' recommendations, respectively. We provide both a gradient-based and a black-box approach for computing these metrics, allowing the auditor to compute them under different levels of access to the recommender system. In our experiments, we demonstrate the efficacy of methods for computing the proposed metrics and inspect the design of recommender systems through these proposed metrics.

Shantanu Gupta, Hao Wang, Zachary C. Lipton et al.

Link prediction methods are frequently applied in recommender systems, e.g., to suggest citations for academic papers or friends in social networks. However, exposure bias can arise when users are systematically underexposed to certain relevant items. For example, in citation networks, authors might be more likely to encounter papers from their own field and thus cite them preferentially. This bias can propagate through naively trained link predictors, leading to both biased evaluation and high generalization error (as assessed by true relevance). Moreover, this bias can be exacerbated by feedback loops. We propose estimators that leverage known exposure probabilities to mitigate this bias and consequent feedback loops. Next, we provide a loss function for learning the exposure probabilities from data. Finally, experiments on semi-synthetic data based on real-world citation networks, show that our methods reliably identify (truly) relevant citations. Additionally, our methods lead to greater diversity in the recommended papers' fields of study. The code is available at https://github.com/shantanu95/exposure-bias-link-rec.

Lucas J. Koerner, Shantanu Gupta, Atul Ingle et al.

Single-photon cameras (SPCs) are emerging as sensors of choice for various challenging imaging applications. One class of SPCs based on the single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) detects individual photons using an avalanche process; the raw photon data can then be processed to extract scene information under extremely low light, high dynamic range, and rapid motion. Yet, single-photon sensitivity in SPADs comes at a cost -- each photon detection consumes more energy than that of a CMOS camera. This avalanche power significantly limits sensor resolution and could restrict widespread adoption of SPAD-based SPCs. We propose a computational-imaging approach called \emph{photon inhibition} to address this challenge. Photon inhibition strategically allocates detections in space and time based on downstream inference task goals and resource constraints. We develop lightweight, on-sensor computational inhibition policies that use past photon data to disable SPAD pixels in real-time, to select the most informative future photons. As case studies, we design policies tailored for image reconstruction and edge detection, and demonstrate, both via simulations and real SPC captured data, considerable reduction in photon detections (over 90\% of photons) while maintaining task performance metrics. Our work raises the question of ``which photons should be detected?'', and paves the way for future energy-efficient single-photon imaging.

Khurram Yamin, Shantanu Gupta, Gaurav R. Ghosal et al.

The ability to robustly identify causal relationships is essential for autonomous decision-making and adaptation to novel scenarios. However, accurately inferring causal structure requires integrating both world knowledge and abstract logical reasoning. In this work, we investigate the interaction between these two capabilities through the representative task of causal reasoning over narratives. Through controlled synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world experiments, we find that state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) often rely on superficial heuristics -- for example, inferring causality from event order or recalling memorized world knowledge without attending to context. Furthermore, we show that simple reformulations of the task can elicit more robust reasoning behavior. Our evaluation spans a range of causal structures, from linear chains to complex graphs involving colliders and forks. These findings uncover systematic patterns in how LLMs perform causal reasoning and lay the groundwork for developing methods that better align LLM behavior with principled causal inference.

Yewon Byun, Shantanu Gupta, Zachary C. Lipton et al.

Predictions and generations from large language models are increasingly being explored as an aid in limited data regimes, such as in computational social science and human subjects research. While prior technical work has mainly explored the potential to use model-predicted labels for unlabeled data in a principled manner, there is increasing interest in using large language models to generate entirely new synthetic samples (e.g., synthetic simulations), such as in responses to surveys. However, it remains unclear by what means practitioners can combine such data with real data and yet produce statistically valid conclusions upon them. In this paper, we introduce a new estimator based on generalized method of moments, providing a hyperparameter-free solution with strong theoretical guarantees to address this challenge. Intriguingly, we find that interactions between the moment residuals of synthetic data and those of real data (i.e., when they are predictive of each other) can greatly improve estimates of the target parameter. We validate the finite-sample performance of our estimator across different tasks in computational social science applications, demonstrating large empirical gains.

Shantanu Gupta, Zachary C. Lipton, David Childers

While many works have studied statistical data fusion, they typically assume that the various datasets are given in advance. However, in practice, estimation requires difficult data collection decisions like determining the available data sources, their costs, and how many samples to collect from each source. Moreover, this process is often sequential because the data collected at a given time can improve collection decisions in the future. In our setup, given access to multiple data sources and budget constraints, the agent must sequentially decide which data source to query to efficiently estimate a target parameter. We formalize this task using Online Moment Selection, a semiparametric framework that applies to any parameter identified by a set of moment conditions. Interestingly, the optimal budget allocation depends on the (unknown) true parameters. We present two online data collection policies, Explore-then-Commit and Explore-then-Greedy, that use the parameter estimates at a given time to optimally allocate the remaining budget in the future steps. We prove that both policies achieve zero regret (assessed by asymptotic MSE) relative to an oracle policy. We empirically validate our methods on both synthetic and real-world causal effect estimation tasks, demonstrating that the online data collection policies outperform their fixed counterparts.

Shantanu Gupta, Zachary C. Lipton, David Childers

Researchers often face data fusion problems, where multiple data sources are available, each capturing a distinct subset of variables. While problem formulations typically take the data as given, in practice, data acquisition can be an ongoing process. In this paper, we aim to estimate any functional of a probabilistic model (e.g., a causal effect) as efficiently as possible, by deciding, at each time, which data source to query. We propose online moment selection (OMS), a framework in which structural assumptions are encoded as moment conditions. The optimal action at each step depends, in part, on the very moments that identify the functional of interest. Our algorithms balance exploration with choosing the best action as suggested by current estimates of the moments. We propose two selection strategies: (1) explore-then-commit (OMS-ETC) and (2) explore-then-greedy (OMS-ETG), proving that both achieve zero asymptotic regret as assessed by MSE. We instantiate our setup for average treatment effect estimation, where structural assumptions are given by a causal graph and data sources may include subsets of mediators, confounders, and instrumental variables.

Atul Ingle, Trevor Seets, Mauro Buttafava et al.

Digital camera pixels measure image intensities by converting incident light energy into an analog electrical current, and then digitizing it into a fixed-width binary representation. This direct measurement method, while conceptually simple, suffers from limited dynamic range and poor performance under extreme illumination -- electronic noise dominates under low illumination, and pixel full-well capacity results in saturation under bright illumination. We propose a novel intensity cue based on measuring inter-photon timing, defined as the time delay between detection of successive photons. Based on the statistics of inter-photon times measured by a time-resolved single-photon sensor, we develop theory and algorithms for a scene brightness estimator which works over extreme dynamic range; we experimentally demonstrate imaging scenes with a dynamic range of over ten million to one. The proposed techniques, aided by the emergence of single-photon sensors such as single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs) with picosecond timing resolution, will have implications for a wide range of imaging applications: robotics, consumer photography, astronomy, microscopy and biomedical imaging.

Sizhuo Ma, Shantanu Gupta, Arin C. Ulku et al.

Single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs) are an emerging sensor technology capable of detecting individual incident photons, and capturing their time-of-arrival with high timing precision. While these sensors were limited to single-pixel or low-resolution devices in the past, recently, large (up to 1 MPixel) SPAD arrays have been developed. These single-photon cameras (SPCs) are capable of capturing high-speed sequences of binary single-photon images with no read noise. We present quanta burst photography, a computational photography technique that leverages SPCs as passive imaging devices for photography in challenging conditions, including ultra low-light and fast motion. Inspired by recent success of conventional burst photography, we design algorithms that align and merge binary sequences captured by SPCs into intensity images with minimal motion blur and artifacts, high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and high dynamic range. We theoretically analyze the SNR and dynamic range of quanta burst photography, and identify the imaging regimes where it provides significant benefits. We demonstrate, via a recently developed SPAD array, that the proposed method is able to generate high-quality images for scenes with challenging lighting, complex geometries, high dynamic range and moving objects. With the ongoing development of SPAD arrays, we envision quanta burst photography finding applications in both consumer and scientific photography.

Shantanu Gupta, Zachary C. Lipton, David Childers

Given a causal graph, the do-calculus can express treatment effects as functionals of the observational joint distribution that can be estimated empirically. Sometimes the do-calculus identifies multiple valid formulae, prompting us to compare the statistical properties of the corresponding estimators. For example, the backdoor formula applies when all confounders are observed and the frontdoor formula applies when an observed mediator transmits the causal effect. In this paper, we investigate the over-identified scenario where both confounders and mediators are observed, rendering both estimators valid. Addressing the linear Gaussian causal model, we demonstrate that either estimator can dominate the other by an unbounded constant factor. Next, we derive an optimal estimator, which leverages all observed variables, and bound its finite-sample variance. We show that it strictly outperforms the backdoor and frontdoor estimators and that this improvement can be unbounded. We also present a procedure for combining two datasets, one with observed confounders and another with observed mediators. Finally, we evaluate our methods on both simulated data and the IHDP and JTPA datasets.

Abhinav Kumar, Shantanu Gupta, Vladimir Kozitsky et al.

The problem of vehicle licence plate re-identification is generally considered as a one-shot image retrieval problem. The objective of this task is to learn a feature representation (called a "signature") for licence plates. Incoming licence plate images are converted to signatures and matched to a previously collected template database through a distance measure. Then, the input image is recognized as the template whose signature is "nearest" to the input signature. The template database is restricted to contain only a single signature per unique licence plate for our problem. We measure the performance of deep convolutional net-based features adapted from face recognition on this task. In addition, we also test a hybrid approach combining the Fisher vector with a neural network-based embedding called "f2nn" trained with the Triplet loss function. We find that the hybrid approach performs comparably while providing computational benefits. The signature generated by the hybrid approach also shows higher generalizability to datasets more dissimilar to the training corpus.