Arlindo Oliveira

Dominika Agnieszka Długosz, Arlindo Oliveira, Natalia Díaz Rodríguez

The GSM-Symbolic benchmark (Mirzadeh et al., 2025) reported consistent performance drops across 25 Large Language Models (LLMs) when tested on template-generated variants of GSM8K problems, concluding that the models lack genuine reasoning capabilities. We argue that this conclusion rests on shaky statistical ground. Re-evaluating 20 open-weight models using Generalised Linear Mixed Models with per-question random effects, we find that only half exhibit statistically significant performance changes under the original prompt format. Moreover, we identify a previously unacknowledged factor: the main GSM-Symbolic dataset contains a systematically shifted distribution of larger integers in problem texts relative to GSM-Base (K-S statistic = 0.12, p < 0.001), contradicting the original authors' claims. Controlling for this large number effect accounts for significance in roughly half the remaining cases. Among models with statistically significant performance deltas, we identify distinct, model-specific failure profiles - including fragility of variable binding, arithmetic limitations, and dual-task interference - underscoring that blanket claims about LLM reasoning are both statistically premature and mechanistically misleading.

Manuel Graca, L. Miguel Silveira, Arlindo Oliveira et al.

In this paper, we present CT-AGD (Curvature-Tuned Accelerated Gradient Descent), an optimization method for non-convex optimization problems in deep learning training tasks. CT-AGD is a general boosting procedure that accelerates first-order methods by explicitly capturing the local curvature using finite-difference quotients, and the development of heuristics aimed at mitigating noise and bias introduced by stochastic mini-batch training. CT-AGD has a comparable storage and computational overhead as adaptive gradient methods such as Adam. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that CT-AGD achieves the same level of accuracy as the baseline first-order methods, yet reduces the required training epochs by 33% on average.

Jonas S Almeida, Daniel E Russ, Susana Vinga et al.

Motivation: With the advent of Language Models using Transformers, popularized by ChatGPT, there is a renewed interest in exploring encoding procedures that numerically represent symbolic sequences at multiple scales and embedding dimensions. The challenge that encoding addresses is the need for mechanisms that uniquely retain contextual information about the succession of individual symbols, which can then be modeled by nonlinear formulations such as neural networks. Context: Universal Sequence Maps(USM) are iterated functions that bijectively encode symbolic sequences onto embedded numerical spaces. USM is composed of two Chaos Game Representations (CGR), iterated forwardly and backwardly, that can be projected into the frequency domain (FCGR). The corresponding USM coordinates can be used to compute a Chebyshev distance metric as well as k-mer frequencies, without having to recompute the embedded numeric coordinates, and, paradoxically, allowing for non-integers values of k. Results: This report advances the bijective fractal encoding by Universal Sequence Maps (USM) by resolving seeding biases affecting the iterated process. The resolution had two results, the first expected, the second an intriguing outcome: 1) full reconciliation of numeric positioning with sequence identity; and 2) uncovering the nature of USM as an efficient numeric process converging towards a steady state sequence embedding solution. We illustrate these results for genomic sequences because of the convenience of a planar representation defined by an alphabet with only 4 tokens (the 4 nucleotides). Nevertheless, the application to alphabet of arbitrary cardinality was found to be straightforward.

João Rico, José Barateiro, Arlindo Oliveira

The significant increase in world population and urbanisation has brought several important challenges, in particular regarding the sustainability, maintenance and planning of urban mobility. At the same time, the exponential increase of computing capability and of available sensor and location data have offered the potential for innovative solutions to these challenges. In this work, we focus on the challenge of traffic forecasting and review the recent development and application of graph neural networks (GNN) to this problem. GNNs are a class of deep learning methods that directly process the input as graph data. This leverages more directly the spatial dependencies of traffic data and makes use of the advantages of deep learning producing state-of-the-art results. We introduce and review the emerging topic of GNNs, including their most common variants, with a focus on its application to traffic forecasting. We address the different ways of modelling traffic forecasting as a (temporal) graph, the different approaches developed so far to combine the graph and temporal learning components, as well as current limitations and research opportunities.

Alexandre Borges, Arlindo Oliveira

The combination of deep learning and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has shown to be effective in various domains, such as board and video games. AlphaGo represented a significant step forward in our ability to learn complex board games, and it was rapidly followed by significant advances, such as AlphaGo Zero and AlphaZero. Recently, MuZero demonstrated that it is possible to master both Atari games and board games by directly learning a model of the environment, which is then used with MCTS to decide what move to play in each position. During tree search, the algorithm simulates games by exploring several possible moves and then picks the action that corresponds to the most promising trajectory. When training, limited use is made of these simulated games since none of their trajectories are directly used as training examples. Even if we consider that not all trajectories from simulated games are useful, there are thousands of potentially useful trajectories that are discarded. Using information from these trajectories would provide more training data, more quickly, leading to faster convergence and higher sample efficiency. Recent work introduced an off-policy value target for AlphaZero that uses data from simulated games. In this work, we propose a way to obtain off-policy targets using data from simulated games in MuZero. We combine these off-policy targets with the on-policy targets already used in MuZero in several ways, and study the impact of these targets and their combinations in three environments with distinct characteristics. When used in the right combinations, our results show that these targets can speed up the training process and lead to faster convergence and higher rewards than the ones obtained by MuZero.

Spyridon Bakas, Mauricio Reyes, Andras Jakab et al.

Gliomas are the most common primary brain malignancies, with different degrees of aggressiveness, variable prognosis and various heterogeneous histologic sub-regions, i.e., peritumoral edematous/invaded tissue, necrotic core, active and non-enhancing core. This intrinsic heterogeneity is also portrayed in their radio-phenotype, as their sub-regions are depicted by varying intensity profiles disseminated across multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) scans, reflecting varying biological properties. Their heterogeneous shape, extent, and location are some of the factors that make these tumors difficult to resect, and in some cases inoperable. The amount of resected tumor is a factor also considered in longitudinal scans, when evaluating the apparent tumor for potential diagnosis of progression. Furthermore, there is mounting evidence that accurate segmentation of the various tumor sub-regions can offer the basis for quantitative image analysis towards prediction of patient overall survival. This study assesses the state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) methods used for brain tumor image analysis in mpMRI scans, during the last seven instances of the International Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) challenge, i.e., 2012-2018. Specifically, we focus on i) evaluating segmentations of the various glioma sub-regions in pre-operative mpMRI scans, ii) assessing potential tumor progression by virtue of longitudinal growth of tumor sub-regions, beyond use of the RECIST/RANO criteria, and iii) predicting the overall survival from pre-operative mpMRI scans of patients that underwent gross total resection. Finally, we investigate the challenge of identifying the best ML algorithms for each of these tasks, considering that apart from being diverse on each instance of the challenge, the multi-institutional mpMRI BraTS dataset has also been a continuously evolving/growing dataset.