Hamed Nilforoshan

Hamed Nilforoshan, Michael Moor, Yusuf Roohani et al.

Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, its recipients, and its nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, \method's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

Hamed Nilforoshan, Johann Gaebler, Ravi Shroff et al.

Recent work highlights the role of causality in designing equitable decision-making algorithms. It is not immediately clear, however, how existing causal conceptions of fairness relate to one another, or what the consequences are of using these definitions as design principles. Here, we first assemble and categorize popular causal definitions of algorithmic fairness into two broad families: (1) those that constrain the effects of decisions on counterfactual disparities; and (2) those that constrain the effects of legally protected characteristics, like race and gender, on decisions. We then show, analytically and empirically, that both families of definitions \emph{almost always} -- in a measure theoretic sense -- result in strongly Pareto dominated decision policies, meaning there is an alternative, unconstrained policy favored by every stakeholder with preferences drawn from a large, natural class. For example, in the case of college admissions decisions, policies constrained to satisfy causal fairness definitions would be disfavored by every stakeholder with neutral or positive preferences for both academic preparedness and diversity. Indeed, under a prominent definition of causal fairness, we prove the resulting policies require admitting all students with the same probability, regardless of academic qualifications or group membership. Our results highlight formal limitations and potential adverse consequences of common mathematical notions of causal fairness.

Rishi Bommasani, Drew A. Hudson, Ehsan Adeli et al.

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.

Hamed Nilforoshan, Neil Shah

Given the reach of web platforms, bad actors have considerable incentives to manipulate and defraud users at the expense of platform integrity. This has spurred research in numerous suspicious behavior detection tasks, including detection of sybil accounts, false information, and payment scams/fraud. In this paper, we draw the insight that many such initiatives can be tackled in a common framework by posing a detection task which seeks to find groups of entities which share too many properties with one another across multiple attributes (sybil accounts created at the same time and location, propaganda spreaders broadcasting articles with the same rhetoric and with similar reshares, etc.) Our work makes four core contributions: Firstly, we posit a novel formulation of this task as a multi-view graph mining problem, in which distinct views reflect distinct attribute similarities across entities, and contextual similarity and attribute importance are respected. Secondly, we propose a novel suspiciousness metric for scoring entity groups given the abnormality of their synchronicity across multiple views, which obeys intuitive desiderata that existing metrics do not. Finally, we propose the SliceNDice algorithm which enables efficient extraction of highly suspicious entity groups, and demonstrate its practicality in production, in terms of strong detection performance and discoveries on Snapchat's large advertiser ecosystem (89% precision and numerous discoveries of real fraud rings), marked outperformance of baselines (over 97% precision/recall in simulated settings) and linear scalability.

Hamed Nilforoshan, Jiannan Wang, Eugene Wu

Quality control in crowdsourcing systems is crucial. It is typically done after data collection, often using additional crowdsourced tasks to assess and improve the quality. These post-hoc methods can easily add cost and latency to the acquisition process--particularly if collecting high-quality data is important. In this paper, we argue for pre-hoc interface optimizations based on feedback that helps workers improve data quality before it is submitted and is well suited to complement post-hoc techniques. We propose the Precog system that explicitly supports such interface optimizations for common integrity constraints as well as more ambiguous text acquisition tasks where quality is ill-defined. We then develop the Segment-Predict-Explain pattern for detecting low-quality text segments and generating prescriptive explanations to help the worker improve their text input. Our unique combination of segmentation and prescriptive explanation are necessary for Precog to collect 2x more high-quality text data than non-Precog approaches on two real domains.

Hamed Nilforoshan, Eugene Wu

User-generated, multi-paragraph writing is pervasive and important in many social media platforms (i.e. Amazon reviews, AirBnB host profiles, etc). Ensuring high-quality content is important. Unfortunately, content submitted by users is often not of high quality. Moreover, the characteristics that constitute high quality may even vary between domains in ways that users are unaware of. Automated writing feedback has the potential to immediately point out and suggest improvements during the writing process. Most approaches, however, focus on syntax/phrasing, which is only one characteristic of high-quality content. Existing research develops accurate quality prediction models. We propose combining these models with model explanation techniques to identify writing features that, if changed, will most improve the text quality. To this end, we develop a perturbation-based explanation method for a popular class of models called tree-ensembles. Furthermore, we use a weak-supervision technique to adapt this method to generate feedback for specific text segments in addition to feedback for the entire document. Our user study finds that the perturbation-based approach, when combined with segment-specific feedback, can help improve writing quality on Amazon (review helpfulness) and Airbnb (host profile trustworthiness) by > 14% (3X improvement over recent automated feedback techniques).