Soham Phade

Tianyu Zhang, Andrew Williams, Soham Phade et al.

Comprehensive global cooperation is essential to limit global temperature increases while continuing economic development, e.g., reducing severe inequality or achieving long-term economic growth. Achieving long-term cooperation on climate change mitigation with n strategic agents poses a complex game-theoretic problem. For example, agents may negotiate and reach climate agreements, but there is no central authority to enforce adherence to those agreements. Hence, it is critical to design negotiation and agreement frameworks that foster cooperation, allow all agents to meet their individual policy objectives, and incentivize long-term adherence. This is an interdisciplinary challenge that calls for collaboration between researchers in machine learning, economics, climate science, law, policy, ethics, and other fields. In particular, we argue that machine learning is a critical tool to address the complexity of this domain. To facilitate this research, here we introduce RICE-N, a multi-region integrated assessment model that simulates the global climate and economy, and which can be used to design and evaluate the strategic outcomes for different negotiation and agreement frameworks. We also describe how to use multi-agent reinforcement learning to train rational agents using RICE-N. This framework underpinsAI for Global Climate Cooperation, a working group collaboration and competition on climate negotiation and agreement design. Here, we invite the scientific community to design and evaluate their solutions using RICE-N, machine learning, economic intuition, and other domain knowledge. More information can be found on www.ai4climatecoop.org.

Arundhati Banerjee, Soham Phade, Stefano Ermon et al.

We study how a principal can efficiently and effectively intervene on the rewards of a previously unseen learning agent in order to induce desirable outcomes. This is relevant to many real-world settings like auctions or taxation, where the principal may not know the learning behavior nor the rewards of real people. Moreover, the principal should be few-shot adaptable and minimize the number of interventions, because interventions are often costly. We introduce MERMAIDE, a model-based meta-learning framework to train a principal that can quickly adapt to out-of-distribution agents with different learning strategies and reward functions. We validate this approach step-by-step. First, in a Stackelberg setting with a best-response agent, we show that meta-learning enables quick convergence to the theoretically known Stackelberg equilibrium at test time, although noisy observations severely increase the sample complexity. We then show that our model-based meta-learning approach is cost-effective in intervening on bandit agents with unseen explore-exploit strategies. Finally, we outperform baselines that use either meta-learning or agent behavior modeling, in both $0$-shot and $K=1$-shot settings with partial agent information.

Yigit Efe Erginbas, Soham Phade, Kannan Ramchandran

Large-scale online recommendation systems must facilitate the allocation of a limited number of items among competing users while learning their preferences from user feedback. As a principled way of incorporating market constraints and user incentives in the design, we consider our objectives to be two-fold: maximal social welfare with minimal instability. To maximize social welfare, our proposed framework enhances the quality of recommendations by exploring allocations that optimistically maximize the rewards. To minimize instability, a measure of users' incentives to deviate from recommended allocations, the algorithm prices the items based on a scheme derived from the Walrasian equilibria. Though it is known that these equilibria yield stable prices for markets with known user preferences, our approach accounts for the inherent uncertainty in the preferences and further ensures that the users accept their recommendations under offered prices. To the best of our knowledge, our approach is the first to integrate techniques from combinatorial bandits, optimal resource allocation, and collaborative filtering to obtain an algorithm that achieves sub-linear social welfare regret as well as sub-linear instability. Empirical studies on synthetic and real-world data also demonstrate the efficacy of our strategy compared to approaches that do not fully incorporate all these aspects.

Yigit Efe Erginbas, Soham Phade, Kannan Ramchandran

Recommendation systems when employed in markets play a dual role: they assist users in selecting their most desired items from a large pool and they help in allocating a limited number of items to the users who desire them the most. Despite the prevalence of capacity constraints on allocations in many real-world recommendation settings, a principled way of incorporating them in the design of these systems has been lacking. Motivated by this, we propose an interactive framework where the system provider can enhance the quality of recommendations to the users by opportunistically exploring allocations that maximize user rewards and respect the capacity constraints using appropriate pricing mechanisms. We model the problem as an instance of a low-rank combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem with selection constraints on the arms. We employ an integrated approach using techniques from collaborative filtering, combinatorial bandits, and optimal resource allocation to provide an algorithm that provably achieves sub-linear regret, namely $\tilde{\mathcal{O}} ( \sqrt{N M (N+M) RT} )$ in $T$ rounds for a problem with $N$ users, $M$ items and rank $R$ mean reward matrix. Empirical studies on synthetic and real-world data also demonstrate the effectiveness and performance of our approach.

Yoshua Bengio, Prateek Gupta, Lu Li et al.

The international community must collaborate to mitigate climate change and sustain economic growth. However, collaboration is hard to achieve, partly because no global authority can ensure compliance with international climate agreements. Combining AI with climate-economic simulations offers a promising solution to design international frameworks, including negotiation protocols and climate agreements, that promote and incentivize collaboration. In addition, these frameworks should also have policy goals fulfillment, and sustained commitment, taking into account climate-economic dynamics and strategic behaviors. These challenges require an interdisciplinary approach across machine learning, economics, climate science, law, policy, ethics, and other fields. Towards this objective, we organized AI for Global Climate Cooperation, a Mila competition in which teams submitted proposals and analyses of international frameworks, based on (modifications of) RICE-N, an AI-driven integrated assessment model (IAM). In particular, RICE-N supports modeling regional decision-making using AI agents. Furthermore, the IAM then models the climate-economic impact of those decisions into the future. Whereas the first track focused only on performance metrics, the proposals submitted to the second track were evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively. The quantitative evaluation focused on a combination of (i) the degree of mitigation of global temperature rise and (ii) the increase in economic productivity. On the other hand, an interdisciplinary panel of human experts in law, policy, sociology, economics and environmental science, evaluated the solutions qualitatively. In particular, the panel considered the effectiveness, simplicity, feasibility, ethics, and notions of climate justice of the protocols. In the third track, the participants were asked to critique and improve RICE-N.

Michael Curry, Alexander Trott, Soham Phade et al.

Real economies can be modeled as a sequential imperfect-information game with many heterogeneous agents, such as consumers, firms, and governments. Dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) models are often used for macroeconomic analysis in this setting. However, finding general equilibria is challenging using existing theoretical or computational methods, especially when using microfoundations to model individual agents. Here, we show how to use deep multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to find $ε$-meta-equilibria over agent types in microfounded DGE models. Whereas standard MARL fails to learn non-trivial solutions, our structured learning curricula enable stable convergence to meaningful solutions. Conceptually, our approach is more flexible and does not need unrealistic assumptions, e.g., continuous market clearing, that are commonly used for analytical tractability. Furthermore, our end-to-end GPU implementation enables fast real-time convergence with a large number of RL economic agents. We showcase our approach in open and closed real-business-cycle (RBC) models with 100 worker-consumers, 10 firms, and a social planner who taxes and redistributes. We validate the learned solutions are $ε$-meta-equilibria through best-response analyses, show that they align with economic intuitions, and show our approach can learn a spectrum of qualitatively distinct $ε$-meta-equilibria in open RBC models. As such, we show that hardware-accelerated MARL is a promising framework for modeling the complexity of economies based on microfoundations.

Vidya Muthukumar, Soham Phade, Anant Sahai

We study the limiting behavior of the mixed strategies that result from optimal no-regret learning strategies in a repeated game setting where the stage game is any 2 by 2 competitive game. We consider optimal no-regret algorithms that are mean-based and monotonic in their argument. We show that for any such algorithm, the limiting mixed strategies of the players cannot converge almost surely to any Nash equilibrium. This negative result is also shown to hold under a broad relaxation of these assumptions, including popular variants of Online-Mirror-Descent with optimism and/or adaptive step-sizes. Finally, we conjecture that the monotonicity assumption can be removed, and provide partial evidence for this conjecture. Our results identify the inherent stochasticity in players' realizations as a critical factor underlying this divergence in outcomes between using the opponent's mixtures and realizations to make updates.