Stuart Pomerantz

Charles Lu, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stuart Pomerantz · berkeley

The regulatory approval and broad clinical deployment of medical AI have been hampered by the perception that deep learning models fail in unpredictable and possibly catastrophic ways. A lack of statistically rigorous uncertainty quantification is a significant factor undermining trust in AI results. Recent developments in distribution-free uncertainty quantification present practical solutions for these issues by providing reliability guarantees for black-box models on arbitrary data distributions as formally valid finite-sample prediction intervals. Our work applies these new uncertainty quantification methods -- specifically conformal prediction -- to a deep-learning model for grading the severity of spinal stenosis in lumbar spine MRI. We demonstrate a technique for forming ordinal prediction sets that are guaranteed to contain the correct stenosis severity within a user-defined probability (confidence interval). On a dataset of 409 MRI exams processed by the deep-learning model, the conformal method provides tight coverage with small prediction set sizes. Furthermore, we explore the potential clinical applicability of flagging cases with high uncertainty predictions (large prediction sets) by quantifying an increase in the prevalence of significant imaging abnormalities (e.g. motion artifacts, metallic artifacts, and tumors) that could degrade confidence in predictive performance when compared to a random sample of cases.

Charles Lu, Ken Chang, Praveer Singh et al.

Despite the intense attention and considerable investment into clinical machine learning research, relatively few applications have been deployed at a large-scale in a real-world clinical environment. While research is important in advancing the state-of-the-art, translation is equally important in bringing these techniques and technologies into a position to ultimately impact healthcare. We believe a lack of appreciation for several considerations are a major cause for this discrepancy between expectation and reality. To better characterize a holistic perspective among researchers and practitioners, we survey several practitioners with commercial experience in developing CML for clinical deployment. Using these insights, we identify several main categories of challenges in order to better design and develop clinical machine learning applications.