Youzhou Zhou

Di Zhang, Qiang Niu, Youzhou Zhou

Volatility clustering is a common phenomenon in financial time series. Typically, linear models can be used to describe the temporal autocorrelation of the (logarithmic) variance of returns. Considering the difficulty in estimating this model, we construct a Dynamic Bayesian Network, which utilizes the conjugate prior relation of normal-gamma and gamma-gamma, so that its posterior form locally remains unchanged at each node. This makes it possible to find approximate solutions using variational methods quickly. Furthermore, we ensure that the volatility expressed by the model is an independent incremental process after inserting dummy gamma nodes between adjacent time steps. We have found that this model has two advantages: 1) It can be proved that it can express heavier tails than Gaussians, i.e., have positive excess kurtosis, compared to popular linear models. 2) If the variational inference(VI) is used for state estimation, it runs much faster than Monte Carlo(MC) methods since the calculation of the posterior uses only basic arithmetic operations. And its convergence process is deterministic. We tested the model, named Gam-Chain, using recent Crypto, Nasdaq, and Forex records of varying resolutions. The results show that: 1) In the same case of using MC, this model can achieve comparable state estimation results with the regular lognormal chain. 2) In the case of only using VI, this model can obtain accuracy that are slightly worse than MC, but still acceptable in practice; 3) Only using VI, the running time of Gam-Chain, in general case, can be reduced to below 5% of that based on the lognormal chain via MC.

Di Zhang, Youzhou Zhou

The goal of cryptocurrencies is decentralization. In principle, all currencies have equal status. Unlike traditional stock markets, there is no default currency of denomination (fiat), thus the trading pairs can be set freely. However, it is impractical to set up a trading market between every two currencies. In order to control management costs and ensure sufficient liquidity, we must give priority to covering those large-volume trading pairs and ensure that all coins are reachable. We note that this is an optimization problem. Its particularity lies in: 1) the trading volume between most (>99.5%) possible trading pairs cannot be directly observed. 2) It satisfies the connectivity constraint, that is, all currencies are guaranteed to be tradable. To solve this problem, we use a two-stage process: 1) Fill in missing values based on a regularized, truncated eigenvalue decomposition, where the regularization term is used to control what extent missing values should be limited to zero. 2) Search for the optimal trading pairs, based on a branch and bound process, with heuristic search and pruning strategies. The experimental results show that: 1) If the number of denominated coins is not limited, we will get a more decentralized trading pair settings, which advocates the establishment of trading pairs directly between large currency pairs. 2) There is a certain room for optimization in all exchanges. The setting of inappropriate trading pairs is mainly caused by subjectively setting small coins to quote, or failing to track emerging big coins in time. 3) Too few trading pairs will lead to low coverage; too many trading pairs will need to be adjusted with markets frequently. Exchanges should consider striking an appropriate balance between them.

Yuling Jiao, Lican Kang, Yanyan Liu et al.

Schrödinger-Föllmer sampler (SFS) is a novel and efficient approach for sampling from possibly unnormalized distributions without ergodicity. SFS is based on the Euler-Maruyama discretization of Schrödinger-Föllmer diffusion process $$\mathrm{d} X_{t}=-\nabla U\left(X_t, t\right) \mathrm{d} t+\mathrm{d} B_{t}, \quad t \in[0,1],\quad X_0=0$$ on the unit interval, which transports the degenerate distribution at time zero to the target distribution at time one. In \cite{sfs21}, the consistency of SFS is established under a restricted assumption that %the drift term $b(x,t)$ the potential $U(x,t)$ is uniformly (on $t$) strongly %concave convex (on $x$). In this paper we provide a nonasymptotic error bound of SFS in Wasserstein distance under some smooth and bounded conditions on the density ratio of the target distribution over the standard normal distribution, but without requiring the strongly convexity of the potential.