K. P. Subbalakshmi

Yangyang Yu, Zhiyuan Yao, Haohang Li et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated notable potential in conducting complex tasks and are increasingly utilized in various financial applications. However, high-quality sequential financial investment decision-making remains challenging. These tasks require multiple interactions with a volatile environment for every decision, demanding sufficient intelligence to maximize returns and manage risks. Although LLMs have been used to develop agent systems that surpass human teams and yield impressive investment returns, opportunities to enhance multi-sourced information synthesis and optimize decision-making outcomes through timely experience refinement remain unexplored. Here, we introduce the FinCon, an LLM-based multi-agent framework with CONceptual verbal reinforcement tailored for diverse FINancial tasks. Inspired by effective real-world investment firm organizational structures, FinCon utilizes a manager-analyst communication hierarchy. This structure allows for synchronized cross-functional agent collaboration towards unified goals through natural language interactions and equips each agent with greater memory capacity than humans. Additionally, a risk-control component in FinCon enhances decision quality by episodically initiating a self-critiquing mechanism to update systematic investment beliefs. The conceptualized beliefs serve as verbal reinforcement for the future agent's behavior and can be selectively propagated to the appropriate node that requires knowledge updates. This feature significantly improves performance while reducing unnecessary peer-to-peer communication costs. Moreover, FinCon demonstrates strong generalization capabilities in various financial tasks, including single stock trading and portfolio management.

Haohang Li, Yupeng Cao, Yangyang Yu et al. · utoronto

Recent advancements have underscored the potential of large language model (LLM)-based agents in financial decision-making. Despite this progress, the field currently encounters two main challenges: (1) the lack of a comprehensive LLM agent framework adaptable to a variety of financial tasks, and (2) the absence of standardized benchmarks and consistent datasets for assessing agent performance. To tackle these issues, we introduce \textsc{InvestorBench}, the first benchmark specifically designed for evaluating LLM-based agents in diverse financial decision-making contexts. InvestorBench enhances the versatility of LLM-enabled agents by providing a comprehensive suite of tasks applicable to different financial products, including single equities like stocks, cryptocurrencies and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Additionally, we assess the reasoning and decision-making capabilities of our agent framework using thirteen different LLMs as backbone models, across various market environments and tasks. Furthermore, we have curated a diverse collection of open-source, multi-modal datasets and developed a comprehensive suite of environments for financial decision-making. This establishes a highly accessible platform for evaluating financial agents' performance across various scenarios.

Yupeng Cao, Zhi Chen, Qingyun Pei et al.

In the realm of financial analytics, leveraging unstructured data, such as earnings conference calls (ECCs), to forecast stock volatility is a critical challenge that has attracted both academics and investors. While previous studies have used multimodal deep learning-based models to obtain a general view of ECCs for volatility predicting, they often fail to capture detailed, complex information. Our research introduces a novel framework: \textbf{ECC Analyzer}, which utilizes large language models (LLMs) to extract richer, more predictive content from ECCs to aid the model's prediction performance. We use the pre-trained large models to extract textual and audio features from ECCs and implement a hierarchical information extraction strategy to extract more fine-grained information. This strategy first extracts paragraph-level general information by summarizing the text and then extracts fine-grained focus sentences using Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). These features are then fused through multimodal feature fusion to perform volatility prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional analytical benchmarks, confirming the effectiveness of advanced LLM techniques in financial analysis.

Yupeng Cao, Aishwarya Muralidharan Nair, Elyon Eyimife et al.

Scientific facts are often spun in the popular press with the intent to influence public opinion and action, as was evidenced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Automatic detection of misinformation in the scientific domain is challenging because of the distinct styles of writing in these two media types and is still in its nascence. Most research on the validity of scientific reporting treats this problem as a claim verification challenge. In doing so, significant expert human effort is required to generate appropriate claims. Our solution bypasses this step and addresses a more real-world scenario where such explicit, labeled claims may not be available. The central research question of this paper is whether it is possible to use large language models (LLMs) to detect misinformation in scientific reporting. To this end, we first present a new labeled dataset SciNews, containing 2.4k scientific news stories drawn from trusted and untrustworthy sources, paired with related abstracts from the CORD-19 database. Our dataset includes both human-written and LLM-generated news articles, making it more comprehensive in terms of capturing the growing trend of using LLMs to generate popular press articles. Then, we identify dimensions of scientific validity in science news articles and explore how this can be integrated into the automated detection of scientific misinformation. We propose several baseline architectures using LLMs to automatically detect false representations of scientific findings in the popular press. For each of these architectures, we use several prompt engineering strategies including zero-shot, few-shot, and chain-of-thought prompting. We also test these architectures and prompting strategies on GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Llama2-7B, Llama2-13B.

Koduvayur Subbalakshmi, Sabbir Hossain Ujjal, Venkata Krishna Teja Mangichetty et al.

Pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generating fluent yet factually incorrect text-a phenomenon known as hallucinations, undermining their reliability and utility in downstream tasks. We hypothesize that a generated text span's factuality is correlated with its representational instability across the model's internal layers. Based on this, we propose the CoCoA (Confusion and Consistency Aware) decoder, a novel, training-free decoding algorithm that mitigates hallucinations at inference time by listening to these signals in the middle layers. We propose two metrics to quantify this instability in the middle layers, and use it to penalize outputs that exhibit high internal confusion, thereby steering the model towards more internally consistent and factually grounded outputs. We further propose a self-information gated variant, CoCoA-SIG, that dynamically modulates this penalty to selectively target high-surprise, unstable generations. Extensive experiments on diverse tasks, including question-answering, summarization and code generation demonstrate that CoCoA significantly improves factual correctness across multiple model families (e.g., Llama-3, Qwen-2.5, Mistral). By leveraging model-intrinsic signals, CoCoA offers an effective and broadly applicable method for enhancing the trustworthiness of LLMs at inference time, without requiring any model retraining.

Yupeng Cao, Haohang Li, Yangyang Yu et al.

Audio Large Language Models (AudioLLMs) have received widespread attention and have significantly improved performance on audio tasks such as conversation, audio understanding, and automatic speech recognition (ASR). Despite these advancements, there is an absence of a benchmark for assessing AudioLLMs in financial scenarios, where audio data, such as earnings conference calls and CEO speeches, are crucial resources for financial analysis and investment decisions. In this paper, we introduce \textsc{FinAudio}, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the capacity of AudioLLMs in the financial domain. We first define three tasks based on the unique characteristics of the financial domain: 1) ASR for short financial audio, 2) ASR for long financial audio, and 3) summarization of long financial audio. Then, we curate two short and two long audio datasets, respectively, and develop a novel dataset for financial audio summarization, comprising the \textsc{FinAudio} benchmark. Then, we evaluate seven prevalent AudioLLMs on \textsc{FinAudio}. Our evaluation reveals the limitations of existing AudioLLMs in the financial domain and offers insights for improving AudioLLMs. All datasets and codes will be released.

Yupeng Cao, Zhi Chen, Prashant Kumar et al.

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, particularly large language models (LLMs), in finance has garnered increasing academic attention. Despite progress, existing studies predominantly focus on tasks like financial text summarization, question-answering, and stock movement prediction (binary classification), the application of LLMs to financial risk prediction remains underexplored. Addressing this gap, in this paper, we introduce RiskLabs, a novel framework that leverages LLMs to analyze and predict financial risks. RiskLabs uniquely integrates multimodal financial data, including textual and vocal information from Earnings Conference Calls (ECCs), market-related time series data, and contextual news data to improve financial risk prediction. Empirical results demonstrate RiskLabs' effectiveness in forecasting both market volatility and variance. Through comparative experiments, we examine the contributions of different data sources to financial risk assessment and highlight the crucial role of LLMs in this process. We also discuss the challenges associated with using LLMs for financial risk prediction and explore the potential of combining them with multimodal data for this purpose.

Mingxuan Chen, Xinqiao Chu, K. P. Subbalakshmi

The outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in an "infodemic" that has encouraged the propagation of misinformation about COVID-19 and cure methods which, in turn, could negatively affect the adoption of recommended public health measures in the larger population. In this paper, we provide a new multimodal (consisting of images, text and temporal information) labeled dataset containing news articles and tweets on the COVID-19 vaccine. We collected 2,593 news articles from 80 publishers for one year between Feb 16th 2020 to May 8th 2021 and 24184 Twitter posts (collected between April 17th 2021 to May 8th 2021). We combine ratings from two news media ranking sites: Medias Bias Chart and Media Bias/Fact Check (MBFC) to classify the news dataset into two levels of credibility: reliable and unreliable. The combination of two filters allows for higher precision of labeling. We also propose a stance detection mechanism to annotate tweets into three levels of credibility: reliable, unreliable and inconclusive. We provide several statistics as well as other analytics like, publisher distribution, publication date distribution, topic analysis, etc. We also provide a novel architecture that classifies the news data into misinformation or truth to provide a baseline performance for this dataset. We find that the proposed architecture has an F-Score of 0.919 and accuracy of 0.882 for fake news detection. Furthermore, we provide benchmark performance for misinformation detection on tweet dataset. This new multimodal dataset can be used in research on COVID-19 vaccine, including misinformation detection, influence of fake COVID-19 vaccine information, etc.

Ning Wang, Fan Luo, Yuvraj Shivtare et al.

We propose a deep learning architecture and test three other machine learning models to automatically detect individuals that will attempt suicide within (1) 30 days and (2) six months, using their social media post data provided in the CLPsych 2021 shared task. Additionally, we create and extract three sets of handcrafted features for suicide risk detection based on the three-stage theory of suicide and prior work on emotions and the use of pronouns among persons exhibiting suicidal ideations. Extensive experimentations show that some of the traditional machine learning methods outperform the baseline with an F1 score of 0.741 and F2 score of 0.833 on subtask 1 (prediction of a suicide attempt 30 days prior). However, the proposed deep learning method outperforms the baseline with F1 score of 0.737 and F2 score of 0.843 on subtask 2 (prediction of suicide 6 months prior).

Bingyang Wen, Luis Oliveros Colon, K. P. Subbalakshmi et al.

Synthetic data generation becomes prevalent as a solution to privacy leakage and data shortage. Generative models are designed to generate a realistic synthetic dataset, which can precisely express the data distribution for the real dataset. The generative adversarial networks (GAN), which gain great success in the computer vision fields, are doubtlessly used for synthetic data generation. Though there are prior works that have demonstrated great progress, most of them learn the correlations in the data distributions rather than the true processes in which the datasets are naturally generated. Correlation is not reliable for it is a statistical technique that only tells linear dependencies and is easily affected by the dataset's bias. Causality, which encodes all underlying factors of how the real data be naturally generated, is more reliable than correlation. In this work, we propose a causal model named Causal Tabular Generative Neural Network (Causal-TGAN) to generate synthetic tabular data using the tabular data's causal information. Extensive experiments on both simulated datasets and real datasets demonstrate the better performance of our method when given the true causal graph and a comparable performance when using the estimated causal graph.

Mingxuan Chen, Ning Wang, K. P. Subbalakshmi

With social media becoming ubiquitous, information consumption from this media has also increased. However, one of the serious problems that have emerged with this increase, is the propagation of rumors. Therefore, rumor identification is a very critical task with significant implications to economy, democracy as well as public health and safety. We tackle the problem of automated detection of rumors in social media in this paper by designing a modular explainable architecture that uses both latent and handcrafted features and can be expanded to as many new classes of features as desired. This approach will allow the end user to not only determine whether the piece of information on the social media is real of a rumor, but also give explanations on why the algorithm arrived at its conclusion. Using attention mechanisms, we are able to interpret the relative importance of each of these features as well as the relative importance of the feature classes themselves. The advantage of this approach is that the architecture is expandable to more handcrafted features as they become available and also to conduct extensive testing to determine the relative influences of these features in the final decision. Extensive experimentation on popular datasets and benchmarking against eleven contemporary algorithms, show that our approach performs significantly better in terms of F-score and accuracy while also being interpretable.

Ning Wang, Fan Luo, Vishal Peddagangireddy et al.

Alzheimer`s disease (AD)-related global healthcare cost is estimated to be $1 trillion by 2050. Currently, there is no cure for this disease; however, clinical studies show that early diagnosis and intervention helps to extend the quality of life and inform technologies for personalized mental healthcare. Clinical research indicates that the onset and progression of Alzheimer`s disease lead to dementia and other mental health issues. As a result, the language capabilities of patient start to decline. In this paper, we show that machine learning-based unsupervised clustering of and anomaly detection with linguistic biomarkers are promising approaches for intuitive visualization and personalized early stage detection of Alzheimer`s disease. We demonstrate this approach on 10 year`s (1980 to 1989) of President Ronald Reagan`s speech data set. Key linguistic biomarkers that indicate early-stage AD are identified. Experimental results show that Reagan had early onset of Alzheimer`s sometime between 1983 and 1987. This finding is corroborated by prior work that analyzed his interviews using a statistical technique. The proposed technique also identifies the exact speeches that reflect linguistic biomarkers for early stage AD.