Chiara Di Francescomarino

Ivan Donadello, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Fabrizio Maria Maggi et al.

Prescriptive Process Monitoring systems recommend, during the execution of a business process, interventions that, if followed, prevent a negative outcome of the process. Such interventions have to be reliable, that is, they have to guarantee the achievement of the desired outcome or performance, and they have to be flexible, that is, they have to avoid overturning the normal process execution or forcing the execution of a given activity. Most of the existing Prescriptive Process Monitoring solutions, however, while performing well in terms of recommendation reliability, provide the users with very specific (sequences of) activities that have to be executed without caring about the feasibility of these recommendations. In order to face this issue, we propose a new Outcome-Oriented Prescriptive Process Monitoring system recommending temporal relations between activities that have to be guaranteed during the process execution in order to achieve a desired outcome. This softens the mandatory execution of an activity at a given point in time, thus leaving more freedom to the user in deciding the interventions to put in place. Our approach defines these temporal relations with Linear Temporal Logic over finite traces patterns that are used as features to describe the historical process data recorded in an event log by the information systems supporting the execution of the process. Such encoded log is used to train a Machine Learning classifier to learn a mapping between the temporal patterns and the outcome of a process execution. The classifier is then queried at runtime to return as recommendations the most salient temporal patterns to be satisfied to maximize the likelihood of a certain outcome for an input ongoing process execution. The proposed system is assessed using a pool of 22 real-life event logs that have already been used as a benchmark in the Process Mining community.

Marco Roveri, Claudio Di Ciccio, Chiara Di Francescomarino et al.

Linear-time temporal logic on finite traces (LTLf) is rapidly becoming a de-facto standard to produce specifications in many application domains (e.g., planning, business process management, run-time monitoring, reactive synthesis). Several studies approached the respective satisfiability problem. In this paper, we investigate the problem of extracting the unsatisfiable core in LTLf specifications. We provide four algorithms for extracting an unsatisfiable core leveraging the adaptation of state-of-the-art approaches to LTLf satisfiability checking. We implement the different approaches within the respective tools and carry out an experimental evaluation on a set of reference benchmarks, restricting to the unsatisfiable ones. The results show the feasibility, effectiveness, and complementarities of the different algorithms and tools.

Stefano Branchi, Andrei Buliga, Chiara Di Francescomarino et al.

Prescriptive Process Monitoring is a prominent problem in Process Mining, which consists in identifying a set of actions to be recommended with the goal of optimising a target measure of interest or Key Performance Indicator (KPI). One challenge that makes this problem difficult is the need to provide Prescriptive Process Monitoring techniques only based on temporally annotated (process) execution data, stored in, so-called execution logs, due to the lack of well crafted and human validated explicit models. In this paper we aim at proposing an AI based approach that learns, by means of Reinforcement Learning (RL), an optimal policy (almost) only from the observation of past executions and recommends the best activities to carry on for optimizing a KPI of interest. This is achieved first by learning a Markov Decision Process for the specific KPIs from data, and then by using RL training to learn the optimal policy. The approach is validated on real and synthetic datasets and compared with off-policy Deep RL approaches. The ability of our approach to compare with, and often overcome, Deep RL approaches provides a contribution towards the exploitation of white box RL techniques in scenarios where only temporal execution data are available.

Stefano Branchi, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

The rise of process data availability has recently led to the development of data-driven learning approaches. However, most of these approaches restrict the use of the learned model to predict the future of ongoing process executions. The goal of this paper is moving a step forward and leveraging available data to learning to act, by supporting users with recommendations derived from an optimal strategy (measure of performance). We take the optimization perspective of one process actor and we recommend the best activities to execute next, in response to what happens in a complex external environment, where there is no control on exogenous factors. To this aim, we investigate an approach that learns, by means of Reinforcement Learning, the optimal policy from the observation of past executions and recommends the best activities to carry on for optimizing a Key Performance Indicator of interest. The validity of the approach is demonstrated on two scenarios taken from real-life data.

Williams Rizzi, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Predictive Process Monitoring is a field of Process Mining that aims at predicting how an ongoing execution of a business process will develop in the future using past process executions recorded in event logs. The recent stream of publications in this field shows the need for tools able to support researchers and users in analyzing, comparing and selecting the techniques that are the most suitable for them. Nirdizati is a dedicated tool for supporting users in building, comparing, analyzing, and explaining predictive models that can then be used to perform predictions on the future of an ongoing case. By providing a rich set of different state-of-the-art approaches, Nirdizati offers BPM researchers and practitioners a useful and flexible instrument for investigating and comparing Predictive Process Monitoring techniques. In this paper, we present the current version of Nirdizati, together with its architecture which has been developed to improve its modularity and scalability. The features of Nirdizati enrich its capability to support researchers and practitioners within the entire pipeline for constructing reliable Predictive Process Monitoring models.

Williams Rizzi, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Recent papers have introduced a novel approach to explain why a Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) model for outcome-oriented predictions provides wrong predictions. Moreover, they have shown how to exploit the explanations, obtained using state-of-the art post-hoc explainers, to identify the most common features that induce a predictor to make mistakes in a semi-automated way, and, in turn, to reduce the impact of those features and increase the accuracy of the predictive model. This work starts from the assumption that frequent control flow patterns in event logs may represent important features that characterize, and therefore explain, a certain prediction. Therefore, in this paper, we (i) employ a novel encoding able to leverage DECLARE constraints in Predictive Process Monitoring and compare the effectiveness of this encoding with Predictive Process Monitoring state-of-the art encodings, in particular for the task of outcome-oriented predictions; (ii) introduce a completely automated pipeline for the identification of the most common features inducing a predictor to make mistakes; and (iii) show the effectiveness of the proposed pipeline in increasing the accuracy of the predictive model by validating it on different real-life datasets.

Andrei Buliga, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Counterfactual explanations are one of the prominent eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, and suggest changes to input data that could alter predictions, leading to more favourable outcomes. Existing counterfactual methods do not readily apply to temporal domains, such as that of process mining, where data take the form of traces of activities that must obey to temporal background knowledge expressing which dynamics are possible and which not. Specifically, counterfactuals generated off-the-shelf may violate the background knowledge, leading to inconsistent explanations. This work tackles this challenge by introducing a novel approach for generating temporally constrained counterfactuals, guaranteed to comply by design with background knowledge expressed in Linear Temporal Logic on process traces (LTLp). We do so by infusing automata-theoretic techniques for LTLp inside a genetic algorithm for counterfactual generation. The empirical evaluation shows that the generated counterfactuals are temporally meaningful and more interpretable for applications involving temporal dependencies.

Andrei Buliga, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Counterfactual explanations suggest what should be different in the input instance to change the outcome of an AI system. When dealing with counterfactual explanations in the field of Predictive Process Monitoring, however, control flow relationships among events have to be carefully considered. A counterfactual, indeed, should not violate control flow relationships among activities (temporal background knowledege). Within the field of Explainability in Predictive Process Monitoring, there have been a series of works regarding counterfactual explanations for outcome-based predictions. However, none of them consider the inclusion of temporal background knowledge when generating these counterfactuals. In this work, we adapt state-of-the-art techniques for counterfactual generation in the domain of XAI that are based on genetic algorithms to consider a series of temporal constraints at runtime. We assume that this temporal background knowledge is given, and we adapt the fitness function, as well as the crossover and mutation operators, to maintain the satisfaction of the constraints. The proposed methods are evaluated with respect to state-of-the-art genetic algorithms for counterfactual generation and the results are presented. We showcase that the inclusion of temporal background knowledge allows the generation of counterfactuals more conformant to the temporal background knowledge, without however losing in terms of the counterfactual traditional quality metrics.

Riccardo Graziosi, Massimiliano Ronzani, Andrei Buliga et al.

In recent years, trace generation has emerged as a significant challenge within the Process Mining community. Deep Learning (DL) models have demonstrated accuracy in reproducing the features of the selected processes. However, current DL generative models are limited in their ability to adapt the learned distributions to generate data samples based on specific conditions or attributes. This limitation is particularly significant because the ability to control the type of generated data can be beneficial in various contexts, enabling a focus on specific behaviours, exploration of infrequent patterns, or simulation of alternative 'what-if' scenarios. In this work, we address this challenge by introducing a conditional model for process data generation based on a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). Conditional models offer control over the generation process by tuning input conditional variables, enabling more targeted and controlled data generation. Unlike other domains, CVAE for process mining faces specific challenges due to the multiperspective nature of the data and the need to adhere to control-flow rules while ensuring data variability. Specifically, we focus on generating process executions conditioned on control flow and temporal features of the trace, allowing us to produce traces for specific, identified sub-processes. The generated traces are then evaluated using common metrics for generative model assessment, along with additional metrics to evaluate the quality of the conditional generation

Sebastiano Dissegna, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Massimiliano Ronzani

The quality of event logs in Process Mining is crucial when applying any form of analysis to them. In real-world event logs, the acquisition of data can be non-trivial (e.g., due to the execution of manual activities and related manual recording or to issues in collecting, for each event, all its attributes), and often may end up with events recorded with some missing information. Standard approaches to the problem of trace (or log) reconstruction either require the availability of a process model that is used to fill missing values by leveraging different reasoning techniques or employ a Machine Learning/Deep Learning model to restore the missing values by learning from similar cases. In recent years, a new type of Deep Learning model that is capable of handling input data encoded as graphs has emerged, namely Graph Neural Networks. Graph Neural Network models, and even more so Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks, offer the advantage of working with a more natural representation of complex multi-modal sequences like the execution traces in Process Mining, allowing for more expressive and semantically rich encodings. In this work, we focus on the development of a Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network model that, given a trace containing some incomplete events, will return the full set of attributes missing from those events. We evaluate our work against a state-of-the-art approach leveraging autoencoders on two synthetic logs and four real event logs, on different types of missing values. Different from state-of-the-art model-free approaches, which mainly focus on repairing a subset of event attributes, the proposed approach shows very good performance in reconstructing all different event attributes.

Williams Rizzi, Marco Comuzzi, Chiara Di Francescomarino et al.

Explainability is motivated by the lack of transparency of black-box Machine Learning approaches, which do not foster trust and acceptance of Machine Learning algorithms. This also happens in the Predictive Process Monitoring field, where predictions, obtained by applying Machine Learning techniques, need to be explained to users, so as to gain their trust and acceptance. In this work, we carry on a user evaluation on explanation approaches for Predictive Process Monitoring aiming at investigating whether and how the explanations provided (i) are understandable; (ii) are useful in decision making tasks;(iii) can be further improved for process analysts, with different Machine Learning expertise levels. The results of the user evaluation show that, although explanation plots are overall understandable and useful for decision making tasks for Business Process Management users -- with and without experience in Machine Learning -- differences exist in the comprehension and usage of different plots, as well as in the way users with different Machine Learning expertise understand and use them.

Giacomo Bergami, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Business process deviance refers to the phenomenon whereby a subset of the executions of a business process deviate, in a negative or positive way, with respect to {their} expected or desirable outcomes. Deviant executions of a business process include those that violate compliance rules, or executions that undershoot or exceed performance targets. Deviance mining is concerned with uncovering the reasons for deviant executions by analyzing event logs stored by the systems supporting the execution of a business process. In this paper, the problem of explaining deviations in business processes is first investigated by using features based on sequential and declarative patterns, and a combination of them. Then, the explanations are further improved by leveraging the data attributes of events and traces in event logs through features based on pure data attribute values and data-aware declarative rules. The explanations characterizing the deviances are then extracted by direct and indirect methods for rule induction. Using real-life logs from multiple domains, a range of feature types and different forms of decision rules are evaluated in terms of their ability to accurately discriminate between non-deviant and deviant executions of a process as well as in terms of understandability of the final outcome returned to the users.

Federico Chesani, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

As the need to understand and formalise business processes into a model has grown over the last years, the process discovery research field has gained more and more importance, developing two different classes of approaches to model representation: procedural and declarative. Orthogonally to this classification, the vast majority of works envisage the discovery task as a one-class supervised learning process guided by the traces that are recorded into an input log. In this work instead, we focus on declarative processes and embrace the less-popular view of process discovery as a binary supervised learning task, where the input log reports both examples of the normal system execution, and traces representing "stranger" behaviours according to the domain semantics. We therefore deepen how the valuable information brought by both these two sets can be extracted and formalised into a model that is "optimal" according to user-defined goals. Our approach, namely NegDis, is evaluated w.r.t. other relevant works in this field, and shows promising results as regards both the performance and the quality of the obtained solution.

Williams Rizzi, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Existing well investigated Predictive Process Monitoring techniques typically construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it with new cases when they complete their execution. This can make Predictive Process Monitoring too rigid to deal with the variability of processes working in real environments that continuously evolve and/or exhibit new variant behaviours over time. As a solution to this problem, we evaluate the use of three different strategies that allow the periodic rediscovery or incremental construction of the predictive model so as to exploit new available data. The evaluation focuses on the performance of the new learned predictive models, in terms of accuracy and time, against the original one, and uses a number of real and synthetic datasets with and without explicit Concept Drift. The results provide an evidence of the potential of incremental learning algorithms for predicting process monitoring in real environments.

Greta Adamo, Chiara Ghidini, Chiara Di Francescomarino

Business process modelling languages typically enable the representation of business process models by employing (graphical) symbols. These symbols can vary depending upon the verbosity of the language, the modelling paradigm, the focus of the language, and so on. To make explicit the different constructs and rules employed by a specific language, as well as bridge the gap across different languages, meta-models have been proposed in literature. These meta-models are a crucial source of knowledge on what state-of-the-art literature considers relevant to describe business processes. The goal of this work is to provide an extensive systematic literature review (SLR) of business process meta-models. This SLR aims at answering research questions concerning: (i) the kind of meta-models proposed in literature; (ii) the recurring constructs they contain; (iii) their purposes; and (iv) their evaluations.

Riccardo De Masellis, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Recent advances in the field of Business Process Management have brought about several suites able to model complex data objects along with the traditional control flow perspective. Nonetheless, when it comes to formal verification there is still the lack of effective verification tools on imperative data-aware process models and executions: the data perspective is often abstracted away and verification tools are often missing. In this paper we provide a concrete framework for formal verification of reachability properties on imperative data-aware business processes. We start with an expressive, yet empirically tractable class of data-aware process models, an extension of Workflow Nets, and we provide a rigorous mapping between the semantics of such models and that of three important paradigms for reasoning about dynamic systems: Action Languages, Classical Planning, and Model Checking. Then we perform a comprehensive assessment of the performance of three popular tools supporting the above paradigms in solving reachability problems for imperative data-aware business processes, which paves the way for a theoretically well founded and practically viable exploitation of formal verification techniques on data-aware business processes.

Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini, Fabrizio Maria Maggi et al.

A characteristic of existing predictive process monitoring techniques is to first construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it with new cases when they complete their execution. This can make predictive process monitoring too rigid to deal with the variability of processes working in real environments that continuously evolve and/or exhibit new variant behaviors over time. As a solution to this problem, we propose the use of algorithms that allow the incremental construction of the predictive model. These incremental learning algorithms update the model whenever new cases become available so that the predictive model evolves over time to fit the current circumstances. The algorithms have been implemented using different case encoding strategies and evaluated on a number of real and synthetic datasets. The results provide a first evidence of the potential of incremental learning strategies for predicting process monitoring in real environments, and of the impact of different case encoding strategies in this setting.

Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini, Fabrizio Maria Maggi et al.

Predictive process monitoring has recently gained traction in academia and is maturing also in companies. However, with the growing body of research, it might be daunting for companies to navigate in this domain in order to find, provided certain data, what can be predicted and what methods to use. The main objective of this paper is developing a value-driven framework for classifying existing work on predictive process monitoring. This objective is achieved by systematically identifying, categorizing, and analyzing existing approaches for predictive process monitoring. The review is then used to develop a value-driven framework that can support organizations to navigate in the predictive process monitoring field and help them to find value and exploit the opportunities enabled by these analysis techniques.

Riccardo De Masellis, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

The growing adoption of IT-systems for modeling and executing (business) processes or services has thrust the scientific investigation towards techniques and tools which support more complex forms of process analysis. Many of them, such as conformance checking, process alignment, mining and enhancement, rely on complete observation of past (tracked and logged) executions. In many real cases, however, the lack of human or IT-support on all the steps of process execution, as well as information hiding and abstraction of model and data, result in incomplete log information of both data and activities. This paper tackles the issue of automatically repairing traces with missing information by notably considering not only activities but also data manipulated by them. Our technique recasts such a problem in a reachability problem and provides an encoding in an action language which allows to virtually use any state-of-the-art planning to return solutions.

Wil M. P. van der Aalst, Riccardo De Masellis, Chiara Di Francescomarino et al.

Process discovery techniques return process models that are either formal (precisely describing the possible behaviors) or informal (merely a "picture" not allowing for any form of formal reasoning). Formal models are able to classify traces (i.e., sequences of events) as fitting or non-fitting. Most process mining approaches described in the literature produce such models. This is in stark contrast with the over 25 available commercial process mining tools that only discover informal process models that remain deliberately vague on the precise set of possible traces. There are two main reasons why vendors resort to such models: scalability and simplicity. In this paper, we propose to combine the best of both worlds: discovering hybrid process models that have formal and informal elements. As a proof of concept we present a discovery technique based on hybrid Petri nets. These models allow for formal reasoning, but also reveal information that cannot be captured in mainstream formal models. A novel discovery algorithm returning hybrid Petri nets has been implemented in ProM and has been applied to several real-life event logs. The results clearly demonstrate the advantages of remaining "vague" when there is not enough "evidence" in the data or standard modeling constructs do not "fit". Moreover, the approach is scalable enough to be incorporated in industrial-strength process mining tools.

Federico Chesani, Riccardo De Masellis, Chiara Di Francescomarino et al.

The capability to store data about business processes execution in so-called Event Logs has brought to the diffusion of tools for the analysis of process executions and for the assessment of the goodness of a process model. Nonetheless, these tools are often very rigid in dealing with with Event Logs that include incomplete information about the process execution. Thus, while the ability of handling incomplete event data is one of the challenges mentioned in the process mining manifesto, the evaluation of compliance of an execution trace still requires an end-to-end complete trace to be performed. This paper exploits the power of abduction to provide a flexible, yet computationally effective, framework to deal with different forms of incompleteness in an Event Log. Moreover it proposes a refinement of the classical notion of compliance into strong and conditional compliance to take into account incomplete logs. Finally, performances evaluation in an experimental setting shows the feasibility of the presented approach.

Chiara Di Francescomarino, Marlon Dumas, Fabrizio Maria Maggi et al.

Business process enactment is generally supported by information systems that record data about process executions, which can be extracted as event logs. Predictive process monitoring is concerned with exploiting such event logs to predict how running (uncompleted) cases will unfold up to their completion. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring framework for estimating the probability that a given predicate will be fulfilled upon completion of a running case. The predicate can be, for example, a temporal logic constraint or a time constraint, or any predicate that can be evaluated over a completed trace. The framework takes into account both the sequence of events observed in the current trace, as well as data attributes associated to these events. The prediction problem is approached in two phases. First, prefixes of previous traces are clustered according to control flow information. Secondly, a classifier is built for each cluster using event data to discriminate between fulfillments and violations. At runtime, a prediction is made on a running case by mapping it to a cluster and applying the corresponding classifier. The framework has been implemented in the ProM toolset and validated on a log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital.

Fabrizio Maria Maggi, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Marlon Dumas et al.

Modern information systems that support complex business processes generally maintain significant amounts of process execution data, particularly records of events corresponding to the execution of activities (event logs). In this paper, we present an approach to analyze such event logs in order to predictively monitor business goals during business process execution. At any point during an execution of a process, the user can define business goals in the form of linear temporal logic rules. When an activity is being executed, the framework identifies input data values that are more (or less) likely to lead to the achievement of each business goal. Unlike reactive compliance monitoring approaches that detect violations only after they have occurred, our predictive monitoring approach provides early advice so that users can steer ongoing process executions towards the achievement of business goals. In other words, violations are predicted (and potentially prevented) rather than merely detected. The approach has been implemented in the ProM process mining toolset and validated on a real-life log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital.