Jayanta Kshirsagar

Janani Venugopalan, Gaurav Deshkar, Rishabh Gaur et al.

Purpose The WHO's COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., lockdowns, vaccinations) effectively curb transmission but impose heavy economic strains. Existing research often neglects individual behaviors and falsely assumes perfect infection tracking and flawless policy execution, failing to account for real-world uncertainties and errors. Methods We propose an integrative approach incorporating uncertainties in both epidemic measurement (infections/hospitalizations) and policy implementation. We built a simulation model of 1,000 individuals making real-time choices regarding mask-wearing, vaccination, and shopping. Concurrently, policymakers deploy interventions (lockdowns, mandates) based on health and economic observations. This framework is driven by hierarchical reinforcement learning agents, utilizing deep Q-networks alongside uncertainty-aware policy gradient variants (DDPG and TD3). Results The simulations effectively managed the epidemic's progression. Masking and vaccinations proved highly effective, significantly reducing both the outbreak's peak height and duration. By integrating individual behaviors, policy uncertainties, and multifaceted interventions, our dynamic control approach successfully mitigated the epidemic's impact. Conclusions Our model overcomes previous research limitations by embedding uncertainty and human behavior into public health policy frameworks. The simulation demonstrates that accounting for individual choices and imperfect data is crucial for designing effective interventions during complex pandemics, with masks and vaccines serving as pivotal tools.

Gaurav Deshkar, Jayanta Kshirsagar, Harshal Hayatnagarkar et al.

To mitigate the impact of the pandemic, several measures include lockdowns, rapid vaccination programs, school closures, and economic stimulus. These interventions can have positive or unintended negative consequences. Current research to model and determine an optimal intervention automatically through round-tripping is limited by the simulation objectives, scale (a few thousand individuals), model types that are not suited for intervention studies, and the number of intervention strategies they can explore (discrete vs continuous). We address these challenges using a Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) based policy optimization framework on a large-scale (100,000 individual) epidemiological agent-based simulation where we perform multi-objective optimization. We determine the optimal policy for lockdown and vaccination in a minimalist age-stratified multi-vaccine scenario with a basic simulation for economic activity. With no lockdown and vaccination (mid-age and elderly), results show optimal economy (individuals below the poverty line) with balanced health objectives (infection, and hospitalization). An in-depth simulation is needed to further validate our results and open-source our framework.

Rishabh Gaur, Gaurav Deshkar, Jayanta Kshirsagar et al.

For the development and optimization of agent-based models (ABMs) and rational agent-based models (RABMs), optimization algorithms such as reinforcement learning are extensively used. However, assessing the performance of RL-based ABMs and RABMS models is challenging due to the complexity and stochasticity of the modeled systems, and the lack of well-standardized metrics for comparing RL algorithms. In this study, we are developing domain-driven metrics for RL, while building on state-of-the-art metrics. We demonstrate our ``Domain-driven-RL-metrics'' using policy optimization on a rational ABM disease modeling case study to model masking behavior, vaccination, and lockdown in a pandemic. Our results show the use of domain-driven rewards in conjunction with traditional and state-of-the-art metrics for a few different simulation scenarios such as the differential availability of masks.