Rolf Kaiser

Nicholas I-Hsien Kuo, Federico Garcia, Anders Sönnerborg et al.

Clinical data usually cannot be freely distributed due to their highly confidential nature and this hampers the development of machine learning in the healthcare domain. One way to mitigate this problem is by generating realistic synthetic datasets using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are known to suffer from mode collapse thus creating outputs of low diversity. This lowers the quality of the synthetic healthcare data, and may cause it to omit patients of minority demographics or neglect less common clinical practices. In this paper, we extend the classic GAN setup with an additional variational autoencoder (VAE) and include an external memory to replay latent features observed from the real samples to the GAN generator. Using antiretroviral therapy for human immunodeficiency virus (ART for HIV) as a case study, we show that our extended setup overcomes mode collapse and generates a synthetic dataset that accurately describes severely imbalanced class distributions commonly found in real-world clinical variables. In addition, we demonstrate that our synthetic dataset is associated with a very low patient disclosure risk, and that it retains a high level of utility from the ground truth dataset to support the development of downstream machine learning algorithms.

Giulia Di Teodoro, Martin Pirkl, Francesca Incardona et al.

Motivation: In predicting HIV therapy outcomes, a critical clinical question is whether using historical information can enhance predictive capabilities compared with current or latest available data analysis. This study analyses whether historical knowledge, which includes viral mutations detected in all genotypic tests before therapy, their temporal occurrence, and concomitant viral load measurements, can bring improvements. We introduce a method to weigh mutations, considering the previously enumerated factors and the reference mutation-drug Stanford resistance tables. We compare a model encompassing history (H) with one not using it (NH). Results: The H-model demonstrates superior discriminative ability, with a higher ROC-AUC score (76.34%) than the NH-model (74.98%). Significant Wilcoxon test results confirm that incorporating historical information improves consistently predictive accuracy for treatment outcomes. The better performance of the H-model might be attributed to its consideration of latent HIV reservoirs, probably obtained when leveraging historical information. The findings emphasize the importance of temporal dynamics in mutations, offering insights into HIV infection complexities. However, our result also shows that prediction accuracy remains relatively high even when no historical information is available. Supplementary information: Supplementary material is available.