Kåre Mølbak

Niels Dalum Hansen, Kåre Mølbak, Ingemar Cox et al.

Consumption of antimicrobial drugs, such as antibiotics, is linked with antimicrobial resistance. Surveillance of antimicrobial drug consumption is therefore an important element in dealing with antimicrobial resistance. Many countries lack sufficient surveillance systems. Usage of web mined data therefore has the potential to improve current surveillance methods. To this end, we study how well antimicrobial drug consumption can be predicted based on web search queries, compared to historical purchase data of antimicrobial drugs. We present two prediction models (linear Elastic Net, and non-linear Gaussian Processes), which we train and evaluate on almost 6 years of weekly antimicrobial drug consumption data from Denmark and web search data from Google Health Trends. We present a novel method of selecting web search queries by considering diseases and drugs linked to antimicrobials, as well as professional and layman descriptions of antimicrobial drugs, all of which we mine from the open web. We find that predictions based on web search data are marginally more erroneous but overall on a par with predictions based on purchases of antimicrobial drugs. This marginal difference corresponds to $<1$\% point mean absolute error in weekly usage. Best predictions are reported when combining both web search and purchase data. This study contributes a novel alternative solution to the real-life problem of predicting (and hence monitoring) antimicrobial drug consumption, which is particularly valuable in countries/states lacking centralised and timely surveillance systems.

Niels Dalum Hansen, Kåre Mølbak, Ingemar J. Cox et al.

Influenza-like illness (ILI) estimation from web search data is an important web analytics task. The basic idea is to use the frequencies of queries in web search logs that are correlated with past ILI activity as features when estimating current ILI activity. It has been noted that since influenza is seasonal, this approach can lead to spurious correlations with features/queries that also exhibit seasonality, but have no relationship with ILI. Spurious correlations can, in turn, degrade performance. To address this issue, we propose modeling the seasonal variation in ILI activity and selecting queries that are correlated with the residual of the seasonal model and the observed ILI signal. Experimental results show that re-ranking queries obtained by Google Correlate based on their correlation with the residual strongly favours ILI-related queries.

Niels Dalum Hansen, Christina Lioma, Kåre Mølbak

We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake effectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields comparative performance. To our knowledge, this is the first study to predict vaccination uptake using web data (with and without clinical data).