Jianeng Xu

Nick Polson, Vadim Sokolov, Jianeng Xu

Quantum Bayesian Computation (QBC) is an emerging field that levers the computational gains available from quantum computers to provide an exponential speed-up in Bayesian computation. Our paper adds to the literature in two ways. First, we show how von Neumann quantum measurement can be used to simulate machine learning algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Deep Learning (DL) that are fundamental to Bayesian learning. Second, we describe data encoding methods needed to implement quantum machine learning including the counterparts to traditional feature extraction and kernel embeddings methods. Our goal then is to show how to apply quantum algorithms directly to statistical machine learning problems. On the theoretical side, we provide quantum versions of high dimensional regression, Gaussian processes (Q-GP) and stochastic gradient descent (Q-SGD). On the empirical side, we apply a Quantum FFT model to Chicago housing data. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.

Anindya Bhadra, Jyotishka Datta, Nick Polson et al.

Merging the two cultures of deep and statistical learning provides insights into structured high-dimensional data. Traditional statistical modeling is still a dominant strategy for structured tabular data. Deep learning can be viewed through the lens of generalized linear models (GLMs) with composite link functions. Sufficient dimensionality reduction (SDR) and sparsity performs nonlinear feature engineering. We show that prediction, interpolation and uncertainty quantification can be achieved using probabilistic methods at the output layer of the model. Thus a general framework for machine learning arises that first generates nonlinear features (a.k.a factors) via sparse regularization and stochastic gradient optimisation and second uses a stochastic output layer for predictive uncertainty. Rather than using shallow additive architectures as in many statistical models, deep learning uses layers of semi affine input transformations to provide a predictive rule. Applying these layers of transformations leads to a set of attributes (a.k.a features) to which predictive statistical methods can be applied. Thus we achieve the best of both worlds: scalability and fast predictive rule construction together with uncertainty quantification. Sparse regularisation with un-supervised or supervised learning finds the features. We clarify the duality between shallow and wide models such as PCA, PPR, RRR and deep but skinny architectures such as autoencoders, MLPs, CNN, and LSTM. The connection with data transformations is of practical importance for finding good network architectures. By incorporating probabilistic components at the output level we allow for predictive uncertainty. For interpolation we use deep Gaussian process and ReLU trees for classification. We provide applications to regression, classification and interpolation. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.

Jingyu He, Nicholas Polson, Jianeng Xu

We use the theory of normal variance-mean mixtures to derive a data augmentation scheme for models that include gamma functions. Our methodology applies to many situations in statistics and machine learning, including Multinomial-Dirichlet distributions, Negative binomial regression, Poisson-Gamma hierarchical models, Extreme value models, to name but a few. All of those models include a gamma function which does not admit a natural conjugate prior distribution providing a significant challenge to inference and prediction. To provide a data augmentation strategy, we construct and develop the theory of the class of Exponential Reciprocal Gamma distributions. This allows scalable EM and MCMC algorithms to be developed. We illustrate our methodology on a number of examples, including gamma shape inference, negative binomial regression and Dirichlet allocation. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.

Jingyu He, Nicholas G. Polson, Jianeng Xu

We use the theory of normal variance-mean mixtures to derive a data augmentation scheme for models that include gamma functions. Our methodology applies to many situations in statistics and machine learning, including Multinomial-Dirichlet distributions, Negative binomial regression, Poisson-Gamma hierarchical models, Extreme value models, to name but a few. All of those models include a gamma function which does not admit a natural conjugate prior distribution providing a significant challenge to inference and prediction. To provide a data augmentation strategy, we construct and develop the theory of the class of Pólya Inverse Gamma distributions. This allows scalable EM and MCMC algorithms to be developed. We illustrate our methodology on a number of examples, including gamma shape inference, negative binomial regression and Dirichlet allocation. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.

Guanhao Feng, Nicholas Polson, Yuexi Wang et al.

Sparse alpha-norm regularization has many data-rich applications in Marketing and Economics. Alpha-norm, in contrast to lasso and ridge regularization, jumps to a sparse solution. This feature is attractive for ultra high-dimensional problems that occur in demand estimation and forecasting. The alpha-norm objective is nonconvex and requires coordinate descent and proximal operators to find the sparse solution. We study a typical marketing demand forecasting problem, grocery store sales for salty snacks, that has many dummy variables as controls. The key predictors of demand include price, equivalized volume, promotion, flavor, scent, and brand effects. By comparing with many commonly used machine learning methods, alpha-norm regularization achieves its goal of providing accurate out-of-sample estimates for the promotion lift effects. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.