Tetsuya Sato

Yusuke Kawamoto, Tetsuya Sato, Kohei Suenaga

We propose a new approach to formally describing the requirement for statistical inference and checking whether a program uses the statistical method appropriately. Specifically, we define belief Hoare logic (BHL) for formalizing and reasoning about the statistical beliefs acquired via hypothesis testing. This program logic is sound and relatively complete with respect to a Kripke model for hypothesis tests. We demonstrate by examples that BHL is useful for reasoning about practical issues in hypothesis testing. In our framework, we clarify the importance of prior beliefs in acquiring statistical beliefs through hypothesis testing, and discuss the whole picture of the justification of statistical inference inside and outside the program logic.

Yusuke Kawamoto, Tetsuya Sato, Kohei Suenaga

We propose a formal language for describing and explaining statistical causality. Concretely, we define Statistical Causality Language (StaCL) for expressing causal effects and specifying the requirements for causal inference. StaCL incorporates modal operators for interventions to express causal properties between probability distributions in different possible worlds in a Kripke model. We formalize axioms for probability distributions, interventions, and causal predicates using StaCL formulas. These axioms are expressive enough to derive the rules of Pearl's do-calculus. Finally, we demonstrate by examples that StaCL can be used to specify and explain the correctness of statistical causal inference.

Borja Balle, Gilles Barthe, Marco Gaboardi et al.

Differential privacy is a de facto standard in data privacy, with applications in the public and private sectors. A way to explain differential privacy, which is particularly appealing to statistician and social scientists is by means of its statistical hypothesis testing interpretation. Informally, one cannot effectively test whether a specific individual has contributed her data by observing the output of a private mechanism---any test cannot have both high significance and high power. In this paper, we identify some conditions under which a privacy definition given in terms of a statistical divergence satisfies a similar interpretation. These conditions are useful to analyze the distinguishability power of divergences and we use them to study the hypothesis testing interpretation of some relaxations of differential privacy based on Renyi divergence. This analysis also results in an improved conversion rule between these definitions and differential privacy.