Ömer Deniz Akyildiz

Arnaud Vadeboncoeur, Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Ieva Kazlauskaite et al.

We introduce a physics-driven deep latent variable model (PDDLVM) to learn simultaneously parameter-to-solution (forward) and solution-to-parameter (inverse) maps of parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). Our formulation leverages conventional PDE discretization techniques, deep neural networks, probabilistic modelling, and variational inference to assemble a fully probabilistic coherent framework. In the posited probabilistic model, both the forward and inverse maps are approximated as Gaussian distributions with a mean and covariance parameterized by deep neural networks. The PDE residual is assumed to be an observed random vector of value zero, hence we model it as a random vector with a zero mean and a user-prescribed covariance. The model is trained by maximizing the probability, that is the evidence or marginal likelihood, of observing a residual of zero by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Consequently, the proposed methodology does not require any independent PDE solves and is physics-informed at training time, allowing the real-time solution of PDE forward and inverse problems after training. The proposed framework can be easily extended to seamlessly integrate observed data to solve inverse problems and to build generative models. We demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of our method on finite element discretized parametric PDE problems such as linear and nonlinear Poisson problems, elastic shells with complex 3D geometries, and time-dependent nonlinear and inhomogeneous PDEs using a physics-informed neural network (PINN) discretization. We achieve up to three orders of magnitude speed-up after training compared to traditional finite element method (FEM), while outputting coherent uncertainty estimates.

Arnaud Vadeboncoeur, Ieva Kazlauskaite, Yanni Papandreou et al.

We introduce a new class of spatially stochastic physics and data informed deep latent models for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) which operate through scalable variational neural processes. We achieve this by assigning probability measures to the spatial domain, which allows us to treat collocation grids probabilistically as random variables to be marginalised out. Adapting this spatial statistics view, we solve forward and inverse problems for parametric PDEs in a way that leads to the construction of Gaussian process models of solution fields. The implementation of these random grids poses a unique set of challenges for inverse physics informed deep learning frameworks and we propose a new architecture called Grid Invariant Convolutional Networks (GICNets) to overcome these challenges. We further show how to incorporate noisy data in a principled manner into our physics informed model to improve predictions for problems where data may be available but whose measurement location does not coincide with any fixed mesh or grid. The proposed method is tested on a nonlinear Poisson problem, Burgers equation, and Navier-Stokes equations, and we provide extensive numerical comparisons. We demonstrate significant computational advantages over current physics informed neural learning methods for parametric PDEs while improving the predictive capabilities and flexibility of these models.

Stefano Bruno, Ying Zhang, Dong-Young Lim et al.

We provide full theoretical guarantees for the convergence behaviour of diffusion-based generative models under the assumption of strongly log-concave data distributions while our approximating class of functions used for score estimation is made of Lipschitz continuous functions avoiding any Lipschitzness assumption on the score function. We demonstrate via a motivating example, sampling from a Gaussian distribution with unknown mean, the powerfulness of our approach. In this case, explicit estimates are provided for the associated optimization problem, i.e. score approximation, while these are combined with the corresponding sampling estimates. As a result, we obtain the best known upper bound estimates in terms of key quantities of interest, such as the dimension and rates of convergence, for the Wasserstein-2 distance between the data distribution (Gaussian with unknown mean) and our sampling algorithm. Beyond the motivating example and in order to allow for the use of a diverse range of stochastic optimizers, we present our results using an $L^2$-accurate score estimation assumption, which crucially is formed under an expectation with respect to the stochastic optimizer and our novel auxiliary process that uses only known information. This approach yields the best known convergence rate for our sampling algorithm.

Ömer Deniz Akyildiz

We analyze the optimized adaptive importance sampler (OAIS) for performing Monte Carlo integration with general proposals. We leverage a classical result which shows that the bias and the mean-squared error (MSE) of the importance sampling scales with the $χ^2$-divergence between the target and the proposal and develop a scheme which performs global optimization of $χ^2$-divergence. While it is known that this quantity is convex for exponential family proposals, the case of the general proposals has been an open problem. We close this gap by utilizing the nonasymptotic bounds for stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) for the global optimization of $χ^2$-divergence and derive nonasymptotic bounds for the MSE by leveraging recent results from non-convex optimization literature. The resulting AIS schemes have explicit theoretical guarantees that are uniform-in-time.

Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Connor Duffin, Sotirios Sabanis et al.

The recent statistical finite element method (statFEM) provides a coherent statistical framework to synthesise finite element models with observed data. Through embedding uncertainty inside of the governing equations, finite element solutions are updated to give a posterior distribution which quantifies all sources of uncertainty associated with the model. However to incorporate all sources of uncertainty, one must integrate over the uncertainty associated with the model parameters, the known forward problem of uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we make use of Langevin dynamics to solve the statFEM forward problem, studying the utility of the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA), a Metropolis-free Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to build a sample-based characterisation of this otherwise intractable measure. Due to the structure of the statFEM problem, these methods are able to solve the forward problem without explicit full PDE solves, requiring only sparse matrix-vector products. ULA is also gradient-based, and hence provides a scalable approach up to high degrees-of-freedom. Leveraging the theory behind Langevin-based samplers, we provide theoretical guarantees on sampler performance, demonstrating convergence, for both the prior and posterior, in the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and, in Wasserstein-2, with further results on the effect of preconditioning. Numerical experiments are also provided, for both the prior and posterior, to demonstrate the efficacy of the sampler, with a Python package also included.

Lorenz Richter, Ayman Boustati, Nikolas Nüsken et al.

We analyse the properties of an unbiased gradient estimator of the ELBO for variational inference, based on the score function method with leave-one-out control variates. We show that this gradient estimator can be obtained using a new loss, defined as the variance of the log-ratio between the exact posterior and the variational approximation, which we call the $\textit{log-variance loss}$. Under certain conditions, the gradient of the log-variance loss equals the gradient of the (negative) ELBO. We show theoretically that this gradient estimator, which we call $\textit{VarGrad}$ due to its connection to the log-variance loss, exhibits lower variance than the score function method in certain settings, and that the leave-one-out control variate coefficients are close to the optimal ones. We empirically demonstrate that VarGrad offers a favourable variance versus computation trade-off compared to other state-of-the-art estimators on a discrete VAE.

Ayman Boustati, Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Theodoros Damoulas et al.

We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification. In particular, we leverage the loss-theoretic perspective of Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) to define generalised filtering recursions in HMMs, that can tackle the problem of inference under model misspecification. In doing so, we arrive at principled procedures for robust inference against observation contamination by utilising the $β$-divergence. Operationalising the proposed framework is made possible via sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC), where most standard particle methods, and their associated convergence results, are readily adapted to the new setting. We apply our approach to object tracking and Gaussian process regression problems, and observe improved performance over both standard filtering algorithms and other robust filters.

Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Sotirios Sabanis

We provide a nonasymptotic analysis of the convergence of the stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) to a target measure in Wasserstein-2 distance without assuming log-concavity. Our analysis quantifies key theoretical properties of the SGHMC as a sampler under local conditions which significantly improves the findings of previous results. In particular, we prove that the Wasserstein-2 distance between the target and the law of the SGHMC is uniformly controlled by the step-size of the algorithm, therefore demonstrate that the SGHMC can provide high-precision results uniformly in the number of iterations. The analysis also allows us to obtain nonasymptotic bounds for nonconvex optimization problems under local conditions and implies that the SGHMC, when viewed as a nonconvex optimizer, converges to a global minimum with the best known rates. We apply our results to obtain nonasymptotic bounds for scalable Bayesian inference and nonasymptotic generalization bounds.

Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Gerrit J. J. van den Burg, Theodoros Damoulas et al.

We introduce the probabilistic sequential matrix factorization (PSMF) method for factorizing time-varying and non-stationary datasets consisting of high-dimensional time-series. In particular, we consider nonlinear Gaussian state-space models where sequential approximate inference results in the factorization of a data matrix into a dictionary and time-varying coefficients with potentially nonlinear Markovian dependencies. The assumed Markovian structure on the coefficients enables us to encode temporal dependencies into a low-dimensional feature space. The proposed inference method is solely based on an approximate extended Kalman filtering scheme, which makes the resulting method particularly efficient. PSMF can account for temporal nonlinearities and, more importantly, can be used to calibrate and estimate generic differentiable nonlinear subspace models. We also introduce a robust version of PSMF, called rPSMF, which uses Student-t filters to handle model misspecification. We show that PSMF can be used in multiple contexts: modeling time series with a periodic subspace, robustifying changepoint detection methods, and imputing missing data in several high-dimensional time-series, such as measurements of pollutants across London.

Ying Zhang, Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Theodoros Damoulas et al.

In this paper, we are concerned with a non-asymptotic analysis of sampling algorithms used in nonconvex optimization. In particular, we obtain non-asymptotic estimates in Wasserstein-1 and Wasserstein-2 distances for a popular class of algorithms called Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD). In addition, the aforementioned Wasserstein-2 convergence result can be applied to establish a non-asymptotic error bound for the expected excess risk. Crucially, these results are obtained under a local Lipschitz condition and a local dissipativity condition where we remove the uniform dependence in the data stream. We illustrate the importance of this relaxation by presenting examples from variational inference and from index tracking optimization.

Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Joaquín Míguez

Adaptive importance samplers are adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate expectations with respect to some target distribution which \textit{adapt} themselves to obtain better estimators over a sequence of iterations. Although it is straightforward to show that they have the same $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{N})$ convergence rate as standard importance samplers, where $N$ is the number of Monte Carlo samples, the behaviour of adaptive importance samplers over the number of iterations has been left relatively unexplored. In this work, we investigate an adaptation strategy based on convex optimisation which leads to a class of adaptive importance samplers termed \textit{optimised adaptive importance samplers} (OAIS). These samplers rely on the iterative minimisation of the $χ^2$-divergence between an exponential-family proposal and the target. The analysed algorithms are closely related to the class of adaptive importance samplers which minimise the variance of the weight function. We first prove non-asymptotic error bounds for the mean squared errors (MSEs) of these algorithms, which explicitly depend on the number of iterations and the number of samples together. The non-asymptotic bounds derived in this paper imply that when the target belongs to the exponential family, the $L_2$ errors of the optimised samplers converge to the optimal rate of $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{N})$ and the rate of convergence in the number of iterations are explicitly provided. When the target does not belong to the exponential family, the rate of convergence is the same but the asymptotic $L_2$ error increases by a factor $\sqrt{ρ^\star} > 1$, where $ρ^\star - 1$ is the minimum $χ^2$-divergence between the target and an exponential-family proposal.

Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Émilie Chouzenoux, Víctor Elvira et al.

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic optimization method, named probabilistic incremental proximal gradient (PIPG) method, by developing a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm. We explicitly model the update rules of the incremental proximal gradient method and develop a systematic approach to propagate the uncertainty of the solution estimate over iterations. The PIPG algorithm takes the form of Bayesian filtering updates for a state-space model constructed by using the cost function. Our framework makes it possible to utilize well-known exact or approximate Bayesian filters, such as Kalman or extended Kalman filters, to solve large-scale regularized optimization problems.

Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Dan Crisan, Joaquín Míguez

We introduce and analyze a parallel sequential Monte Carlo methodology for the numerical solution of optimization problems that involve the minimization of a cost function that consists of the sum of many individual components. The proposed scheme is a stochastic zeroth order optimization algorithm which demands only the capability to evaluate small subsets of components of the cost function. It can be depicted as a bank of samplers that generate particle approximations of several sequences of probability measures. These measures are constructed in such a way that they have associated probability density functions whose global maxima coincide with the global minima of the original cost function. The algorithm selects the best performing sampler and uses it to approximate a global minimum of the cost function. We prove analytically that the resulting estimator converges to a global minimum of the cost function almost surely and provide explicit convergence rates in terms of the number of generated Monte Carlo samples and the dimension of the search space. We show, by way of numerical examples, that the algorithm can tackle cost functions with multiple minima or with broad "flat" regions which are hard to minimize using gradient-based techniques.

Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Victor Elvira, Joaquin Miguez

In this work, we highlight a connection between the incremental proximal method and stochastic filters. We begin by showing that the proximal operators coincide, and hence can be realized with, Bayes updates. We give the explicit form of the updates for the linear regression problem and show that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the proximal operator of the least-squares regression and the Bayes update when the prior and the likelihood are Gaussian. We then carry out this observation to a general sequential setting: We consider the incremental proximal method, which is an algorithm for large-scale optimization, and show that, for a linear-quadratic cost function, it can naturally be realized by the Kalman filter. We then discuss the implications of this idea for nonlinear optimization problems where proximal operators are in general not realizable. In such settings, we argue that the extended Kalman filter can provide a systematic way for the derivation of practical procedures.