Antonio M. Sudoso

Veronica Piccialli, Antonio M. Sudoso

The minimum sum-of-squares clustering (MSSC), or k-means type clustering, has been recently extended to exploit prior knowledge on the cardinality of each cluster. Such knowledge is used to increase performance as well as solution quality. In this paper, we propose a global optimization approach based on the branch-and-cut technique to solve the cardinality-constrained MSSC. For the lower bound routine, we use the semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation recently proposed by Rujeerapaiboon et al. [SIAM J. Optim. 29(2), 1211-1239, (2019)]. However, this relaxation can be used in a branch-and-cut method only for small-size instances. Therefore, we derive a new SDP relaxation that scales better with the instance size and the number of clusters. In both cases, we strengthen the bound by adding polyhedral cuts. Benefiting from a tailored branching strategy which enforces pairwise constraints, we reduce the complexity of the problems arising in the children nodes. For the upper bound, instead, we present a local search procedure that exploits the solution of the SDP relaxation solved at each node. Computational results show that the proposed algorithm globally solves, for the first time, real-world instances of size 10 times larger than those solved by state-of-the-art exact methods.

Dario Piermarini, Antonio M. Sudoso, Veronica Piccialli

Financial distress of municipalities, although comparable to bankruptcy of private companies, has a far more serious impact on the well-being of communities. For this reason, it is essential to detect deficits as soon as possible. Predicting financial distress in municipalities can be a complex task, as it involves understanding a wide range of factors that can affect a municipality's financial health. In this paper, we evaluate machine learning models to predict financial distress in Italian municipalities. Accounting judiciary experts have specialized knowledge and experience in evaluating the financial performance, and they use a range of indicators to make their assessments. By incorporating these indicators in the feature extraction process, we can ensure that the model is taking into account a wide range of information that is relevant to the financial health of municipalities. The results of this study indicate that using machine learning models in combination with the knowledge of accounting judiciary experts can aid in the early detection of financial distress, leading to better outcomes for the communities.

Giovanni Felici, Antonio M. Sudoso

Forecast combination involves using multiple forecasts to create a single, more accurate prediction. Recently, feature-based forecasting has been employed to either select the most appropriate forecasting models or to optimize the weights of their combination. In this paper, we present a multi-task optimization paradigm that focuses on solving both problems simultaneously and enriches current operational research approaches to forecasting. In essence, it incorporates an additional learning and optimization task into the standard feature-based forecasting approach, focusing on the identification of an optimal set of forecasting methods. During the training phase, an optimization model with linear constraints and quadratic objective function is employed to identify accurate and diverse methods for each time series. Moreover, within the training phase, a neural network is used to learn the behavior of that optimization model. Once training is completed the candidate set of methods is identified using the network. The proposed approach elicits the essential role of diversity in feature-based forecasting and highlights the interplay between model combination and model selection when optimizing forecasting ensembles. Experimental results on a large set of series from the M4 competition dataset show that our proposal enhances point forecast accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Veronica Piccialli, Jan Schwiddessen, Antonio M. Sudoso

Support vector machines (SVMs) are well-studied supervised learning models for binary classification. In many applications, large amounts of samples can be cheaply and easily obtained. What is often a costly and error-prone process is to manually label these instances. Semi-supervised support vector machines (S3VMs) extend the well-known SVM classifiers to the semi-supervised approach, aiming at maximizing the margin between samples in the presence of unlabeled data. By leveraging both labeled and unlabeled data, S3VMs attempt to achieve better accuracy and robustness compared to traditional SVMs. Unfortunately, the resulting optimization problem is non-convex and hence difficult to solve exactly. In this paper, we present a new branch-and-cut approach for S3VMs using semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations. We apply optimality-based bound tightening to bound the feasible set. Box constraints allow us to include valid inequalities, strengthening the lower bound. The resulting SDP relaxation provides bounds significantly stronger than the ones available in the literature. For the upper bound, instead, we define a local search exploiting the solution of the SDP relaxation. Computational results highlight the efficiency of the algorithm, showing its capability to solve instances with a number of data points 10 times larger than the ones solved in the literature.

Antonio M. Sudoso

Biclustering, also called co-clustering, block clustering, or two-way clustering, involves the simultaneous clustering of both the rows and columns of a data matrix into distinct groups, such that the rows and columns within a group display similar patterns. As a model problem for biclustering, we consider the $k$-densest-disjoint biclique problem, whose goal is to identify $k$ disjoint complete bipartite subgraphs (called bicliques) of a given weighted complete bipartite graph such that the sum of their densities is maximized. To address this problem, we present a tailored branch-and-cut algorithm. For the upper bound routine, we consider a semidefinite programming relaxation and propose valid inequalities to strengthen the bound. We solve this relaxation in a cutting-plane fashion using a first-order method. For the lower bound, we design a maximum weight matching rounding procedure that exploits the solution of the relaxation solved at each node. Computational results on both synthetic and real-world instances show that the proposed algorithm can solve instances approximately 20 times larger than those handled by general-purpose solvers.

Antonio M. Sudoso

Biclustering, also known as co-clustering or two-way clustering, simultaneously partitions the rows and columns of a data matrix to reveal submatrices with coherent patterns. Incorporating background knowledge into clustering to enhance solution quality and interpretability has attracted growing interest in mathematical optimization and machine learning research. Extending this paradigm to biclustering enables prior information to guide the joint grouping of rows and columns. We study constrained biclustering with pairwise constraints, namely must-link and cannot-link constraints, which specify whether objects should belong to the same or different biclusters. As a model problem, we address the constrained version of the k-densest disjoint biclique problem, which aims to identify k disjoint complete bipartite subgraphs (called bicliques) in a weighted complete bipartite graph, maximizing the total density while satisfying pairwise constraints. We propose both exact and heuristic algorithms. The exact approach is a tailored branch-and-cut algorithm based on a low-dimensional semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation, strengthened with valid inequalities and solved in a cutting-plane fashion. Exploiting integer programming tools, a rounding scheme converts SDP solutions into feasible biclusterings at each node. For large-scale instances, we introduce an efficient heuristic based on the low-rank factorization of the SDP. The resulting nonlinear optimization problem is tackled with an augmented Lagrangian method, where the subproblem is solved by decomposition through a block-coordinate projected gradient algorithm. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the exact method significantly outperforms general-purpose solvers, while the heuristic achieves high-quality solutions efficiently on large instances.

Anna Livia Croella, Veronica Piccialli, Antonio M. Sudoso

Clustering is a fundamental technique in data analysis and machine learning, used to group similar data points together. Among various clustering methods, the Minimum Sum-of-Squares Clustering (MSSC) is one of the most widely used. MSSC aims to minimize the total squared Euclidean distance between data points and their corresponding cluster centroids. Due to the unsupervised nature of clustering, achieving global optimality is crucial, yet computationally challenging. The complexity of finding the global solution increases exponentially with the number of data points, making exact methods impractical for large-scale datasets. Even obtaining strong lower bounds on the optimal MSSC objective value is computationally prohibitive, making it difficult to assess the quality of heuristic solutions. We address this challenge by introducing a novel method to validate heuristic MSSC solutions through optimality gaps. Our approach employs a divide-and-conquer strategy, decomposing the problem into smaller instances that can be handled by an exact solver. The decomposition is guided by an auxiliary optimization problem, the "anticlustering problem", for which we design an efficient heuristic. Computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the method for large-scale instances, achieving optimality gaps below 3% in most cases while maintaining reasonable computational times. These results highlight the practicality of our approach in assessing feasible clustering solutions for large datasets, bridging a critical gap in MSSC evaluation.

Veronica Piccialli, Anna Russo Russo, Antonio M. Sudoso

The minimum sum-of-squares clustering (MSSC), or k-means type clustering, is traditionally considered an unsupervised learning task. In recent years, the use of background knowledge to improve the cluster quality and promote interpretability of the clustering process has become a hot research topic at the intersection of mathematical optimization and machine learning research. The problem of taking advantage of background information in data clustering is called semi-supervised or constrained clustering. In this paper, we present a branch-and-cut algorithm for semi-supervised MSSC, where background knowledge is incorporated as pairwise must-link and cannot-link constraints. For the lower bound procedure, we solve the semidefinite programming relaxation of the MSSC discrete optimization model, and we use a cutting-plane procedure for strengthening the bound. For the upper bound, instead, by using integer programming tools, we use an adaptation of the k-means algorithm to the constrained case. For the first time, the proposed global optimization algorithm efficiently manages to solve real-world instances up to 800 data points with different combinations of must-link and cannot-link constraints and with a generic number of features. This problem size is about four times larger than the one of the instances solved by state-of-the-art exact algorithms.

Marco Balletti, Veronica Piccialli, Antonio M. Sudoso

Energy disaggregation, known in the literature as Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM), is the task of inferring the energy consumption of each appliance given the aggregate signal recorded by a single smart meter. In this paper, we propose a novel two-stage optimization-based approach for energy disaggregation. In the first phase, a small training set consisting of disaggregated power profiles is used to estimate the parameters and the power states by solving a mixed integer programming problem. Once the model parameters are estimated, the energy disaggregation problem is formulated as a constrained binary quadratic optimization problem. We incorporate penalty terms that exploit prior knowledge on how the disaggregated traces are generated, and appliance-specific constraints characterizing the signature of different types of appliances operating simultaneously. Our approach is compared with existing optimization-based algorithms both on a synthetic dataset and on three real-world datasets. The proposed formulation is computationally efficient, able to disambiguate loads with similar consumption patterns, and successfully reconstruct the signatures of known appliances despite the presence of unmetered devices, thus overcoming the main drawbacks of the optimization-based methods available in the literature.

Paolo Mancuso, Veronica Piccialli, Antonio M. Sudoso

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing reconciled forecasts. Forecast reconciliation is the process of adjusting forecasts to make them coherent across the hierarchy. In literature, coherence is often enforced by using a post-processing technique on the base forecasts produced by suitable time series forecasting methods. On the contrary, our idea is to use a deep neural network to directly produce accurate and reconciled forecasts. We exploit the ability of a deep neural network to extract information capturing the structure of the hierarchy. We impose the reconciliation at training time by minimizing a customized loss function. In many practical applications, besides time series data, hierarchical time series include explanatory variables that are beneficial for increasing the forecasting accuracy. Exploiting this further information, our approach links the relationship between time series features extracted at any level of the hierarchy and the explanatory variables into an end-to-end neural network providing accurate and reconciled point forecasts. The effectiveness of the approach is validated on three real-world datasets, where our method outperforms state-of-the-art competitors in hierarchical forecasting.

Veronica Piccialli, Antonio M. Sudoso

Energy disaggregation, known in the literature as Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM), is the task of inferring the power demand of the individual appliances given the aggregate power demand recorded by a single smart meter which monitors multiple appliances. In this paper, we propose a deep neural network that combines a regression subnetwork with a classification subnetwork for solving the NILM problem. Specifically, we improve the generalization capability of the overall architecture by including an encoder-decoder with a tailored attention mechanism in the regression subnetwork. The attention mechanism is inspired by the temporal attention that has been successfully applied in neural machine translation, text summarization, and speech recognition. The experiments conducted on two publicly available datasets--REDD and UK-DALE--show that our proposed deep neural network outperforms the state-of-the-art in all the considered experimental conditions. We also show that modeling attention translates into the network's ability to correctly detect the turning on or off an appliance and to locate signal sections with high power consumption, which are of extreme interest in the field of energy disaggregation.