Kaiyi Xu

Kaiyi Xu, Junchao Gong, Zhiwang Zhou et al.

With the advancement of meteorological instruments, abundant data has become available. Current approaches are typically focus on single-variable, single-region tasks and primarily rely on deterministic modeling. This limits unified synthesis across variables and regions, overlooks cross-variable complementarity and often leads to over-smoothed results. To address above challenges, we introduce SynWeather, the first dataset designed for Unified Multi-region and Multi-variable Weather Observation Data Synthesis. SynWeather covers four representative regions: the Continental United States, Europe, East Asia, and Tropical Cyclone regions, as well as provides high-resolution observations of key weather variables, including Composite Radar Reflectivity, Hourly Precipitation, Visible Light, and Microwave Brightness Temperature. In addition, we introduce SynWeatherDiff, a general and probabilistic weather synthesis model built upon the Diffusion Transformer framework to address the over-smoothed problem. Experiments on the SynWeather dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our network compared with both task-specific and general models.

Junchao Gong, Kaiyi Xu, Wangxu Wei et al.

Despite the unprecedented volume of multimodal data provided by modern Earth observation systems, our ability to model atmospheric dynamics remains constrained. Traditional modeling frameworks force heterogeneous measurements into predefined spatial grids, inherently limiting the full exploitation of raw sensor data and creating severe computational bottlenecks. Here we present Earth-o1, an observation-native atmospheric world model that overcomes these structural limitations. Rather than relying on conventional atmospheric dynamical modeling systems or traditional data assimilation, Earth-o1 directly learns the continuous, three-dimensional physical evolution of the Earth system from ungridded observational data. By integrating diverse sensor inputs into a unified, grid-free dynamical field, the model autonomously advances the atmospheric state in space and time. We show that this fundamentally distinct paradigm enables direct, real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference without the overhead of explicit numerical solvers. In hindcast evaluations, Earth-o1 achieves surface forecast skill comparable to the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). These results establish that continuous, observation-driven world models -- a new class of fully observation-native geophysical simulators -- can match the fidelity of established physical frameworks, providing a scalable data-driven foundation for a digital twin of the Earth.

Kaiyi Xu, Junchao Gong, Wenlong Zhang et al.

Precipitation nowcasting based on radar echoes plays a crucial role in monitoring extreme weather and supporting disaster prevention. Although deep learning approaches have achieved significant progress, they still face notable limitations. For example, deterministic models tend to produce over-smoothed predictions, which struggle to capture extreme events and fine-scale precipitation patterns. Probabilistic generative models, due to their inherent randomness, often show fluctuating performance across different metrics and rarely achieve consistently optimal results. Furthermore, precipitation nowcasting is typically evaluated using multiple metrics, some of which are inherently conflicting. For instance, there is often a trade-off between the Critical Success Index (CSI) and the False Alarm Ratio (FAR), making it challenging for existing models to deliver forecasts that perform well on both metrics simultaneously. To address these challenges, we introduce preference optimization into precipitation nowcasting for the first time, motivated by the success of reinforcement learning from human feedback in large language models. Specifically, we propose SynCast, a method that employs the two-stage post-training framework of Diffusion Sequential Preference Optimization (Diffusion-SPO), to progressively align conflicting metrics and consistently achieve superior performance. In the first stage, the framework focuses on reducing FAR, training the model to effectively suppress false alarms. Building on this foundation, the second stage further optimizes CSI with constraints that preserve FAR alignment, thereby achieving synergistic improvements across these conflicting metrics.