Mehmet S. Ismail

Nejat Anbarci, Mehmet S. Ismail

Recently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology use has been rising in sports to reach decisions of various complexity. At a relatively low complexity level, for example, major tennis tournaments replaced human line judges with Hawk-Eye Live technology to reduce staff during the COVID-19 pandemic. AI is now ready to move beyond such mundane tasks, however. A case in point and a perfect application ground is chess. To reduce the growing incidence of ties, many elite tournaments have resorted to fast chess tiebreakers. However, these tiebreakers significantly reduce the quality of games. To address this issue, we propose a novel AI-driven method for an objective tiebreaking mechanism. This method evaluates the quality of players' moves by comparing them to the optimal moves suggested by powerful chess engines. If there is a tie, the player with the higher quality measure wins the tiebreak. This approach not only enhances the fairness and integrity of the competition but also maintains the game's high standards. To show the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to a dataset comprising approximately 25,000 grandmaster moves from World Chess Championship matches spanning from 1910 to 2018, using Stockfish 16, a leading chess AI, for analysis.

Mehmet S. Ismail

The emergence of increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) systems have sparked intense debate among researchers, policymakers, and the public due to their potential to surpass human intelligence and capabilities in all domains. In this paper, I propose a game-theoretic framework that captures the strategic interactions between a human agent and a potential superhuman machine agent. I identify four key assumptions: Strategic Unpredictability, Access to Machine's Strategy, Rationality, and Superhuman Machine. The main result of this paper is an impossibility theorem: these four assumptions are inconsistent when taken together, but relaxing any one of them results in a consistent set of assumptions. Two straightforward policy recommendations follow: first, policymakers should control access to specific human data to maintain Strategic Unpredictability; and second, they should grant select AI researchers access to superhuman machine research to ensure Access to Machine's Strategy holds. My analysis contributes to a better understanding of the context that can shape the theoretical development of superhuman AI.

Steven J. Brams, Mehmet S. Ismail

Unlike tic-tac-toe or checkers, in which optimal play leads to a draw, it is not known whether optimal play in chess ends in a win for White, a win for Black, or a draw. But after White moves first in chess, if Black has a double move followed by a double move of White and then alternating play, play is more balanced because White does not always tie or lead in moves. Symbolically, Balanced Alternation gives the following move sequence: After White's (W) initial move, first Black (B) and then White each have two moves in a row (BBWW), followed by the alternating sequence, beginning with W, which altogether can be written as WB/BW/WB/WB/WB... (the slashes separate alternating pairs of moves). Except for reversal of the 3rd and 4th moves from WB to BW, this is the standard chess sequence. Because Balanced Alternation lies between the standard sequence, which favors White, and a comparable sequence that favors Black, it is highly likely to produce a draw with optimal play, rendering chess fairer. This conclusion is supported by a computer analysis of chess openings and how they would play out under Balanced Alternation.