Vladimir Kostić

Vladimir R. Kostic, Karim Lounici, Gregoire Pacreau et al.

We introduce Neural Conditional Probability (NCP), an operator-theoretic approach to learning conditional distributions with a focus on statistical inference tasks. NCP can be used to build conditional confidence regions and extract key statistics such as conditional quantiles, mean, and covariance. It offers streamlined learning via a single unconditional training phase, allowing efficient inference without the need for retraining even when conditioning changes. By leveraging the approximation capabilities of neural networks, NCP efficiently handles a wide variety of complex probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees that ensure both optimization consistency and statistical accuracy. In experiments, we show that NCP with a 2-hidden-layer network matches or outperforms leading methods. This demonstrates that a a minimalistic architecture with a theoretically grounded loss can achieve competitive results, even in the face of more complex architectures.

Dimitri Meunier, Jakub Wornbard, Vladimir R. Kostic et al.

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. An established approach is to use estimators based on learned spectral features, that is, features spanning the top singular subspaces of the operator linking treatments to instruments. While powerful, such features are agnostic to the outcome variable. Consequently, the method can fail when the true causal function is poorly represented by these dominant singular functions. To mitigate, we introduce Augmented Spectral Feature Learning, a framework that makes the feature learning process outcome-aware. Our method learns features by minimizing a novel contrastive loss derived from an augmented operator that incorporates information from the outcome. By learning these task-specific features, our approach remains effective even under spectral misalignment. We provide a theoretical analysis of this framework and validate our approach on challenging benchmarks.

Erfan Mirzaei, Andreas Maurer, Vladimir R. Kostic et al.

Learning from non-independent and non-identically distributed data poses a persistent challenge in statistical learning. In this study, we introduce data-dependent Bernstein inequalities tailored for vector-valued processes in Hilbert space. Our inequalities apply to both stationary and non-stationary processes and exploit the potential rapid decay of correlations between temporally separated variables to improve estimation. We demonstrate the utility of these bounds by applying them to covariance operator estimation in the Hilbert-Schmidt norm and to operator learning in dynamical systems, achieving novel risk bounds. Finally, we perform numerical experiments to illustrate the practical implications of these bounds in both contexts.

Dimitri Meunier, Antoine Moulin, Jakub Wornbard et al.

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders, using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. A leading strategy employs spectral features - that is, learned features spanning the top eigensubspaces of the operator linking treatments to instruments. We derive a generalization error bound for a two-stage least squares estimator based on spectral features, and gain insights into the method's performance and failure modes. We show that performance depends on two key factors, leading to a clear taxonomy of outcomes. In a good scenario, the approach is optimal. This occurs with strong spectral alignment, meaning the structural function is well-represented by the top eigenfunctions of the conditional operator, coupled with this operator's slow eigenvalue decay, indicating a strong instrument. Performance degrades in a bad scenario: spectral alignment remains strong, but rapid eigenvalue decay (indicating a weaker instrument) demands significantly more samples for effective feature learning. Finally, in the ugly scenario, weak spectral alignment causes the method to fail, regardless of the eigenvalues' characteristics. Our synthetic experiments empirically validate this taxonomy.

Salvatore Calcagno, Isaak Kavasidis, Simone Palazzo et al.

Understanding complex animal behaviors hinges on deciphering the neural activity patterns within brain circuits, making the ability to forecast neural activity crucial for developing predictive models of brain dynamics. This capability holds immense value for neuroscience, particularly in applications such as real-time optogenetic interventions. While traditional encoding and decoding methods have been used to map external variables to neural activity and vice versa, they focus on interpreting past data. In contrast, neural forecasting aims to predict future neural activity, presenting a unique and challenging task due to the spatiotemporal sparsity and complex dependencies of neural signals. Existing transformer-based forecasting methods, while effective in many domains, struggle to capture the distinctiveness of neural signals characterized by spatiotemporal sparsity and intricate dependencies. To address this challenge, we here introduce QuantFormer, a transformer-based model specifically designed for forecasting neural activity from two-photon calcium imaging data. Unlike conventional regression-based approaches, QuantFormerreframes the forecasting task as a classification problem via dynamic signal quantization, enabling more effective learning of sparse neural activation patterns. Additionally, QuantFormer tackles the challenge of analyzing multivariate signals from an arbitrary number of neurons by incorporating neuron-specific tokens, allowing scalability across diverse neuronal populations. Trained with unsupervised quantization on the Allen dataset, QuantFormer sets a new benchmark in forecasting mouse visual cortex activity. It demonstrates robust performance and generalization across various stimuli and individuals, paving the way for a foundational model in neural signal prediction.

Vladimir Kostic, Saverio Salzo, Massimilano Pontil

In this work we propose a batch version of the Greenkhorn algorithm for multimarginal regularized optimal transport problems. Our framework is general enough to cover, as particular cases, some existing algorithms like Sinkhorn and Greenkhorn algorithm for the bi-marginal setting, and (greedy) MultiSinkhorn for multimarginal optimal transport. We provide a complete convergence analysis, which is based on the properties of the iterative Bregman projections (IBP) method with greedy control. Global linear rate of convergence and explicit bound on the iteration complexity are obtained. When specialized to above mentioned algorithms, our results give new insights and/or improve existing ones.