Dario Landa-Silva

Timothy Cargan, Dario Landa-Silva, Isaac Triguero

As the use of solar power increases, having accurate and timely forecasts will be essential for smooth grid operators. There are many proposed methods for forecasting solar irradiance / solar power production. However, many of these methods formulate the problem as a time-series, relying on near real-time access to observations at the location of interest to generate forecasts. This requires both access to a real-time stream of data and enough historical observations for these methods to be deployed. In this paper, we propose the use of Global methods to train our models in a generalised way, enabling them to generate forecasts for unseen locations. We apply this approach to both classical ML and state of the art methods. Using data from 20 locations distributed throughout the UK and widely available weather data, we show that it is possible to build systems that do not require access to this data. We utilise and compare both satellite and ground observations (e.g. temperature, pressure) of weather data. Leveraging weather observations and measurements from other locations we show it is possible to create models capable of accurately forecasting solar irradiance at new locations. This could facilitate use planning and optimisation for both newly deployed solar farms and domestic installations from the moment they come online. Additionally, we show that training a single global model for multiple locations can produce a more robust model with more consistent and accurate results across locations.

Rodrigo Lankaites Pinheiro, Dario Landa-Silva, Jason Atkin

Understanding the relationships between objectives in a multiobjective optimisation problem is important for developing tailored and efficient solving techniques. In particular, when tackling combinatorial optimisation problems with many objectives, that arise in real-world logistic scenarios, better support for the decision maker can be achieved through better understanding of the often complex fitness landscape. This paper makes a contribution in this direction by presenting a technique that allows a visualisation and analysis of the local and global relationships between objectives in optimisation problems with many objectives. The proposed technique uses four steps: First, the global pairwise relationships are analysed using the Kendall correlation method; then, the ranges of the values found on the given Pareto front are estimated and assessed; next, these ranges are used to plot a map using Gray code, similar to Karnaugh maps, that has the ability to highlight the trade-offs between multiple objectives; and finally, local relationships are identified using scatter plots. Experiments are presented for three combinatorial optimisation problems: multiobjective multidimensional knapsack problem, multiobjective nurse scheduling problem, and multiobjective vehicle routing problem with time windows . Results show that the proposed technique helps in the gaining of insights into the problem difficulty arising from the relationships between objectives.

Rodrigo Lankaites Pinheiro, Dario Landa-Silva, Wasakorn Laesanklang et al.

Many real-world applications require decision-makers to assess the quality of solutions while considering multiple conflicting objectives. Obtaining good approximation sets for highly constrained many-objective problems is often a difficult task even for modern multiobjective algorithms. In some cases, multiple instances of the problem scenario present similarities in their fitness landscapes. That is, there are recurring features in the fitness landscapes when searching for solutions to different problem instances. We propose a methodology to exploit this characteristic by solving one instance of a given problem scenario using computationally expensive multiobjective algorithms to obtain a good approximation set and then using Goal Programming with efficient single-objective algorithms to solve other instances of the same problem scenario. We use three goal-based objective functions and show that on benchmark instances of the multiobjective vehicle routing problem with time windows, the methodology is able to produce good results in short computation time. The methodology allows to combine the effectiveness of state-of-the-art multiobjective algorithms with the efficiency of goal programming to find good compromise solutions in problem scenarios where instances have similar fitness landscapes.

Xiaoping Jiang, Ruibin Bai, Dario Landa-Silva et al.

Stochastic service network designs with uncertain demand represented by a set of scenarios can be modelled as a large-scale two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program (SMIP). The progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is a decomposition method for solving the resulting SMIP. The computational performance of the PHA can be greatly enhanced by decomposing according to scenario bundles instead of individual scenarios. At the heart of bundle-based decomposition is the method for grouping the scenarios into bundles. In this paper, we present a fuzzy c-means-based scenario bundling method to address this problem. Rather than full membership of a bundle, which is typically the case in existing scenario bundling strategies such as k-means, a scenario has partial membership in each of the bundles and can be assigned to more than one bundle in our method.