Enrico Mariconti

Mohammad Naseri, Yufei Han, Enrico Mariconti et al.

Modern defenses against cyberattacks increasingly rely on proactive approaches, e.g., to predict the adversary's next actions based on past events. Building accurate prediction models requires knowledge from many organizations; alas, this entails disclosing sensitive information, such as network structures, security postures, and policies, which might often be undesirable or outright impossible. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of using Federated Learning (FL) to predict future security events. To this end, we introduce Cerberus, a system enabling collaborative training of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models for participating organizations. The intuition is that FL could potentially offer a middle-ground between the non-private approach where the training data is pooled at a central server and the low-utility alternative of only training local models. We instantiate Cerberus on a dataset obtained from a major security company's intrusion prevention product and evaluate it vis-a-vis utility, robustness, and privacy, as well as how participants contribute to and benefit from the system. Overall, our work sheds light on both the positive aspects and the challenges of using FL for this task and paves the way for deploying federated approaches to predictive security.

Antonis Papasavva, Shane Johnson, Ed Lowther et al.

Fraud is a prevalent offence that extends beyond financial loss, causing psychological and physical harm to victims. The advancements in online communication technologies alowed for online fraud to thrive in this vast network, with fraudsters increasingly using these channels for deception. With the progression of technologies like AI, there is a growing concern that fraud will scale up, using sophisticated methods, like deep-fakes in phishing campaigns, all generated by language generation models like ChatGPT. However, the application of AI in detecting and analyzing online fraud remains understudied. We conduct a Systematic Literature Review on AI and NLP techniques for online fraud detection. The review adhered the PRISMA-ScR protocol, with eligibility criteria including relevance to online fraud, use of text data, and AI methodologies. We screened 2,457 academic records, 350 met our eligibility criteria, and included 223. We report the state-of-the-art NLP techniques for analysing various online fraud categories; the training data sources; the NLP algorithms and models built; and the performance metrics employed for model evaluation. We find that current research on online fraud is divided into various scam activitiesand identify 16 different frauds that researchers focus on. This SLR enhances the academic understanding of AI-based detection methods for online fraud and offers insights for policymakers, law enforcement, and businesses on safeguarding against such activities. We conclude that focusing on specific scams lacks generalization, as multiple models are required for different fraud types. The evolving nature of scams limits the effectiveness of models trained on outdated data. We also identify issues in data limitations, training bias reporting, and selective presentation of metrics in model performance reporting, which can lead to potential biases in model evaluation.

Aliai Eusebi, Alexander Herzog, Xiaoyu Liang et al.

The maximum softmax probability (MSP) represents a default approach when evaluating uncertainty quantification for language model generation with structured output. Although cheap, it is often miscalibrated. Methods that probe the model's internal activations feed raw hidden states into opaque classifiers, reading activations as static snapshots and leaving implicit the layer-wise trajectory by which a representation is formed. Yet, similar endpoints can arise from very different paths, and how evidence accumulates, reinforces, or reverses across depth might reveal uncertainty that final probabilities obscure. We extract eleven scale-invariant geometric features, tracing the cumulative path of per-layer MLP updates, and feed them to a sparse linear probe. The probe outperforms MSP under selective abstention, with gains scaling with baseline miscalibration up to 21 AURC points. Because every feature has a closed-form geometric meaning, the probe's coefficients trace how and where along depth errors take shape -- which layers commit prematurely, which contradict the running state, where trajectories drift away from their endpoint.

Ema Mauko, Shane D Johnson, Enrico Mariconti

Cloud computing has drastically altered the ways in which it is possible to deliver information technologies in a service-led structure, however, this has also been reflected in the cybercrime domain. Cybercrime as a Service is an economic model where a technically skilled actor offers a given cyberattack as an end-to-end service to non-technical actors who pay a subscription fee for said service. The services, which can vary in scope, targets, and delivery modes, include everything from the vulnerability discoveries, delivery of the attack, and the attack itself to financial rewards to the subscriber. In this scoping literature review, we analysed 195 articles from both academic and grey literature with a view of investigating the services articles studied, the methodological approach the how the CaaS model is predicted to develop in the future. Our review indicates that with further commercialisation of the model will further lower the barrier of entry to the cybercrime realm, increase sophistication of the attacks and increase resilience of the service providers and their ecosystem which will result in harder shutdowns of services by the authorities. Furthermore, as the model becomes more accessible, groups such as organised crime groups, extremist actors may use them as well, which may have implications for criminal activity in both cyber and physical domains.

Harel Berger, Chen Hajaj, Enrico Mariconti et al.

Android malware is a continuously expanding threat to billions of mobile users around the globe. Detection systems are updated constantly to address these threats. However, a backlash takes the form of evasion attacks, in which an adversary changes malicious samples such that those samples will be misclassified as benign. This paper fully inspects a well-known Android malware detection system, MaMaDroid, which analyzes the control flow graph of the application. Changes to the portion of benign samples in the train set and models are considered to see their effect on the classifier. The changes in the ratio between benign and malicious samples have a clear effect on each one of the models, resulting in a decrease of more than 40% in their detection rate. Moreover, adopted ML models are implemented as well, including 5-NN, Decision Tree, and Adaboost. Exploration of the six models reveals a typical behavior in different cases, of tree-based models and distance-based models. Moreover, three novel attacks that manipulate the CFG and their detection rates are described for each one of the targeted models. The attacks decrease the detection rate of most of the models to 0%, with regards to different ratios of benign to malicious apps. As a result, a new version of MaMaDroid is engineered. This model fuses the CFG of the app and static analysis of features of the app. This improved model is proved to be robust against evasion attacks targeting both CFG-based models and static analysis models, achieving a detection rate of more than 90% against each one of the attacks.

Yun Shen, Enrico Mariconti, Pierre-Antoine Vervier et al.

With the increased complexity of modern computer attacks, there is a need for defenders not only to detect malicious activity as it happens, but also to predict the specific steps that will be taken by an adversary when performing an attack. However this is still an open research problem, and previous research in predicting malicious events only looked at binary outcomes (e.g., whether an attack would happen or not), but not at the specific steps that an attacker would undertake. To fill this gap we present Tiresias, a system that leverages Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to predict future events on a machine, based on previous observations. We test Tiresias on a dataset of 3.4 billion security events collected from a commercial intrusion prevention system, and show that our approach is effective in predicting the next event that will occur on a machine with a precision of up to 0.93. We also show that the models learned by Tiresias are reasonably stable over time, and provide a mechanism that can identify sudden drops in precision and trigger a retraining of the system. Finally, we show that the long-term memory typical of RNNs is key in performing event prediction, rendering simpler methods not up to the task.

Enrico Mariconti, Guillermo Suarez-Tangil, Jeremy Blackburn et al.

Video sharing platforms like YouTube are increasingly targeted by aggression and hate attacks. Prior work has shown how these attacks often take place as a result of "raids," i.e., organized efforts by ad-hoc mobs coordinating from third-party communities. Despite the increasing relevance of this phenomenon, however, online services often lack effective countermeasures to mitigate it. Unlike well-studied problems like spam and phishing, coordinated aggressive behavior both targets and is perpetrated by humans, making defense mechanisms that look for automated activity unsuitable. Therefore, the de-facto solution is to reactively rely on user reports and human moderation. In this paper, we propose an automated solution to identify YouTube videos that are likely to be targeted by coordinated harassers from fringe communities like 4chan. First, we characterize and model YouTube videos along several axes (metadata, audio transcripts, thumbnails) based on a ground truth dataset of videos that were targeted by raids. Then, we use an ensemble of classifiers to determine the likelihood that a video will be raided with very good results (AUC up to 94%). Overall, our work provides an important first step towards deploying proactive systems to detect and mitigate coordinated hate attacks on platforms like YouTube.

Lucky Onwuzurike, Mario Almeida, Enrico Mariconti et al.

Following the increasing popularity of mobile ecosystems, cybercriminals have increasingly targeted them, designing and distributing malicious apps that steal information or cause harm to the device's owner. Aiming to counter them, detection techniques based on either static or dynamic analysis that model Android malware, have been proposed. While the pros and cons of these analysis techniques are known, they are usually compared in the context of their limitations e.g., static analysis is not able to capture runtime behaviors, full code coverage is usually not achieved during dynamic analysis, etc. Whereas, in this paper, we analyze the performance of static and dynamic analysis methods in the detection of Android malware and attempt to compare them in terms of their detection performance, using the same modeling approach. To this end, we build on MaMaDroid, a state-of-the-art detection system that relies on static analysis to create a behavioral model from the sequences of abstracted API calls. Then, aiming to apply the same technique in a dynamic analysis setting, we modify CHIMP, a platform recently proposed to crowdsource human inputs for app testing, in order to extract API calls' sequences from the traces produced while executing the app on a CHIMP virtual device. We call this system AuntieDroid and instantiate it by using both automated (Monkey) and user-generated inputs. We find that combining both static and dynamic analysis yields the best performance, with F-measure reaching 0.92. We also show that static analysis is at least as effective as dynamic analysis, depending on how apps are stimulated during execution, and, finally, investigate the reasons for inconsistent misclassifications across methods.

Lucky Onwuzurike, Enrico Mariconti, Panagiotis Andriotis et al.

As Android has become increasingly popular, so has malware targeting it, thus pushing the research community to propose different detection techniques. However, the constant evolution of the Android ecosystem, and of malware itself, makes it hard to design robust tools that can operate for long periods of time without the need for modifications or costly re-training. Aiming to address this issue, we set to detect malware from a behavioral point of view, modeled as the sequence of abstracted API calls. We introduce MaMaDroid, a static-analysis based system that abstracts the API calls performed by an app to their class, package, or family, and builds a model from their sequences obtained from the call graph of an app as Markov chains. This ensures that the model is more resilient to API changes and the features set is of manageable size. We evaluate MaMaDroid using a dataset of 8.5K benign and 35.5K malicious apps collected over a period of six years, showing that it effectively detects malware (with up to 0.99 F-measure) and keeps its detection capabilities for long periods of time (up to 0.87 F-measure two years after training). We also show that MaMaDroid remarkably outperforms DroidAPIMiner, a state-of-the-art detection system that relies on the frequency of (raw) API calls. Aiming to assess whether MaMaDroid's effectiveness mainly stems from the API abstraction or from the sequencing modeling, we also evaluate a variant of it that uses frequency (instead of sequences), of abstracted API calls. We find that it is not as accurate, failing to capture maliciousness when trained on malware samples that include API calls that are equally or more frequently used by benign apps.

Enrico Mariconti, Lucky Onwuzurike, Panagiotis Andriotis et al.

The rise in popularity of the Android platform has resulted in an explosion of malware threats targeting it. As both Android malware and the operating system itself constantly evolve, it is very challenging to design robust malware mitigation techniques that can operate for long periods of time without the need for modifications or costly re-training. In this paper, we present MaMaDroid, an Android malware detection system that relies on app behavior. MaMaDroid builds a behavioral model, in the form of a Markov chain, from the sequence of abstracted API calls performed by an app, and uses it to extract features and perform classification. By abstracting calls to their packages or families, MaMaDroid maintains resilience to API changes and keeps the feature set size manageable. We evaluate its accuracy on a dataset of 8.5K benign and 35.5K malicious apps collected over a period of six years, showing that it not only effectively detects malware (with up to 99% F-measure), but also that the model built by the system keeps its detection capabilities for long periods of time (on average, 86% and 75% F-measure, respectively, one and two years after training). Finally, we compare against DroidAPIMiner, a state-of-the-art system that relies on the frequency of API calls performed by apps, showing that MaMaDroid significantly outperforms it.