Andrew J. Margenot

Baoyu Jing, Si Zhang, Yada Zhu et al.

Time series data appears in a variety of applications such as smart transportation and environmental monitoring. One of the fundamental problems for time series analysis is time series forecasting. Despite the success of recent deep time series forecasting methods, they require sufficient observation of historical values to make accurate forecasting. In other words, the ratio of the output length (or forecasting horizon) to the sum of the input and output lengths should be low enough (e.g., 0.3). As the ratio increases (e.g., to 0.8), the uncertainty for the forecasting accuracy increases significantly. In this paper, we show both theoretically and empirically that the uncertainty could be effectively reduced by retrieving relevant time series as references. In the theoretical analysis, we first quantify the uncertainty and show its connections to the Mean Squared Error (MSE). Then we prove that models with references are easier to learn than models without references since the retrieved references could reduce the uncertainty. To empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the retrieval based time series forecasting models, we introduce a simple yet effective two-stage method, called ReTime consisting of a relational retrieval and a content synthesis. We also show that ReTime can be easily adapted to the spatial-temporal time series and time series imputation settings. Finally, we evaluate ReTime on real-world datasets to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Dingsu Wang, Yuchen Yan, Ruizhong Qiu et al.

Multivariate time series (MTS) imputation is a widely studied problem in recent years. Existing methods can be divided into two main groups, including (1) deep recurrent or generative models that primarily focus on time series features, and (2) graph neural networks (GNNs) based models that utilize the topological information from the inherent graph structure of MTS as relational inductive bias for imputation. Nevertheless, these methods either neglect topological information or assume the graph structure is fixed and accurately known. Thus, they fail to fully utilize the graph dynamics for precise imputation in more challenging MTS data such as networked time series (NTS), where the underlying graph is constantly changing and might have missing edges. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to overcome these limitations. First, we define the problem of imputation over NTS which contains missing values in both node time series features and graph structures. Then, we design a new model named PoGeVon which leverages variational autoencoder (VAE) to predict missing values over both node time series features and graph structures. In particular, we propose a new node position embedding based on random walk with restart (RWR) in the encoder with provable higher expressive power compared with message-passing based graph neural networks (GNNs). We further design a decoder with 3-stage predictions from the perspective of multi-task learning to impute missing values in both time series and graph structures reciprocally. Experiment results demonstrate the effectiveness of our model over baselines.

Haonan Wang, Wei Huang, Ziwei Wu et al.

Active learning theories and methods have been extensively studied in classical statistical learning settings. However, deep active learning, i.e., active learning with deep learning models, is usually based on empirical criteria without solid theoretical justification, thus suffering from heavy doubts when some of those fail to provide benefits in real applications. In this paper, by exploring the connection between the generalization performance and the training dynamics, we propose a theory-driven deep active learning method (dynamicAL) which selects samples to maximize training dynamics. In particular, we prove that the convergence speed of training and the generalization performance are positively correlated under the ultra-wide condition and show that maximizing the training dynamics leads to better generalization performance. Furthermore, to scale up to large deep neural networks and data sets, we introduce two relaxations for the subset selection problem and reduce the time complexity from polynomial to constant. Empirical results show that dynamicAL not only outperforms the other baselines consistently but also scales well on large deep learning models. We hope our work would inspire more attempts on bridging the theoretical findings of deep networks and practical impacts of deep active learning in real applications.