Pietro Manzoni

I. de ZarzÃ, J. de Curtò, Jordi Cabot et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly serve as autonomous reasoning agents in decision support, scientific problem-solving, and multi-agent coordination systems. However, deploying LLM agents in consequential applications requires assurance that their reasoning remains stable under semantically equivalent input variations, a property we term semantic invariance. Standard benchmark evaluations, which assess accuracy on fixed, canonical problem formulations, fail to capture this critical reliability dimension. To address this shortcoming, in this paper we present a metamorphic testing framework for systematically assessing the robustness of LLM reasoning agents, applying eight semantic-preserving transformations (identity, paraphrase, fact reordering, expansion, contraction, academic context, business context, and contrastive formulation) across seven foundation models spanning four distinct architectural families: Hermes (70B, 405B), Qwen3 (30B-A3B, 235B-A22B), DeepSeek-R1, and gpt-oss (20B, 120B). Our evaluation encompasses 19 multi-step reasoning problems across eight scientific domains. The results reveal that model scale does not predict robustness: the smaller Qwen3-30B-A3B achieves the highest stability (79.6% invariant responses, semantic similarity 0.91), while larger models exhibit greater fragility.

Roberto Baviera, Pietro Manzoni

An elementary Recurrent Neural Network that operates on p time lags, called an RNN(p), is the natural generalisation of a linear autoregressive model ARX(p). It is a powerful forecasting tool for variables displaying inherent seasonal patterns across multiple time scales, as is often observed in energy, economic, and financial time series. The architecture of RNN(p) models, characterised by structured feedbacks across time lags, enables the design of efficient training strategies. We conduct a comparative study of learning algorithms for these models, providing a rigorous analysis of their computational complexity and training performance. We present two applications of RNN(p) models in power consumption forecasting, a key domain within the energy sector where accurate forecasts inform both operational and financial decisions. Experimental results show that RNN(p) models achieve excellent forecasting accuracy while maintaining a high degree of interpretability. These features make them well-suited for decision-making in energy markets and other fintech applications where reliable predictions play a significant economic role.