Maurizio Parton

Carlo Metta, Marco Fantozzi, Andrea Papini et al.

We introduce a novel computational unit for neural networks that features multiple biases, challenging the traditional perceptron structure. This unit emphasizes the importance of preserving uncorrupted information as it is passed from one unit to the next, applying activation functions later in the process with specialized biases for each unit. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we show that by focusing on increasing biases rather than weights, there is potential for significant enhancement in a neural network model's performance. This approach offers an alternative perspective on optimizing information flow within neural networks. See source code at https://github.com/CuriosAI/dac-dev.

Marco Gregnanin, Johannes De Smedt, Giorgio Gnecco et al.

Forecasting univariate time series in the financial market is a challenging endeavor. While numerous statistical and machine learning models have been introduced to address this challenge, they typically concentrate solely on analyzing temporal patterns within the time series data. In this research, we study the statistical significance of the inclusion of geometric patterns in enhancing forecasting accuracy within the context of time series analysis. We introduce the Time-Geometric model, a combination of models designed to exploit both geometric and temporal patterns. The contribution of this research lies in advancing the domain of univariate time series prediction,as demonstrated through extensive empirical evaluations. Our findings underscore that leveraging geometric patterns, captured through Graph Neural Networks, yields statistically significant improvements in forecasting accuracy.

Antonio Di Cecco, Carlo Metta, Marco Fantozzi et al.

Deep learning architectures suffer from depth-related performance degradation, limiting the effective depth of neural networks. Approaches like ResNet are able to mitigate this, but they do not completely eliminate the problem. We introduce Globally Connected Neural Networks (GloNet), a novel architecture overcoming depth-related issues, designed to be superimposed on any model, enhancing its depth without increasing complexity or reducing performance. With GloNet, the network's head uniformly receives information from all parts of the network, regardless of their level of abstraction. This enables GloNet to self-regulate information flow during training, reducing the influence of less effective deeper layers, and allowing for stable training irrespective of network depth. This paper details GloNet's design, its theoretical basis, and a comparison with existing similar architectures. Experiments show GloNet's self-regulation ability and resilience to depth-related learning challenges, like performance degradation. Our findings suggest GloNet as a strong alternative to traditional architectures like ResNets.

Marco Gregnanin, Johannes De Smedt, Giorgio Gnecco et al.

Hypergraphs have the capacity to capture higher-dimensional relationships among entities across various domains, making them a subject of growing interest within the research community for understanding the structure and dynamics of complex systems. However, a key challenge is the derivation of hypergraph representations from time series data in situations where the structure of the hypergraph is limited or absent. In this study, we propose a model that constructs a dynamic hypergraph representation for multivariate time series without relying on prior knowledge of the data. This is achieved by applying community detection to the time series and transforming the resulting communities, obtained through an attention mechanism, into a hypergraph using a clique-based technique. Hypergraph representations are derived from different time series datasets, and the resulting hypergraphs are then used by a Dynamic Hypergraph Attention Convolution Network (DHACN) for multivariate time series predictions. This research advances the field of hypergraph representation by introducing a novel approach that is better suited to uncover high-order relationships without prior knowledge.

Marco Gregnanin, Johannes De Smedt, Giorgio Gnecco et al.

Generating synthetic data for financial time series poses challenges, especially considering their non-stationary nature. Traditional statistical time series models normally assume weak stationarity. However, this assumption can constrain their effectiveness. Deep learning models, particularly Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), have exhibited considerable potential in emulating complex probability distributions. GANs employ a generator-discriminator framework, where the generator creates data samples, while the discriminator distinguishes real from generated data. In this research, we introduce the Sig-Graph GAN model, which integrates the time-series signature, offering a structured summary of its temporal evolution; the Long Short-Term Memory network, capturing its inherent autoregressive structure; and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), leveraging geometric patterns within the time-series data. To employ GNNs optimally, we use the visibility graph algorithm to derive a graph-based representation of the underlying time series. Numerical evaluations demonstrate that the Sig-Graph GAN model outperforms baseline methods in replicating the distribution of logarithmic returns across different stock exchanges. The integration of the graph structure with the autoregressive component effectively captures both geometric and temporal patterns embedded in time-series data. This research advances the field of GAN models for time series by introducing a model capable of leveraging both autoregressive properties and geometric structures for synthetic data generation.

Maurizio Parton, Marco Angelone, Carlo Metta et al.

This paper aims to investigate the possibility of using artificial intelligence (AI) to resolve the legal issues raised by the Covid-19 emergency about the fate of continuing execution contracts, or those with deferred or periodic execution, as well as, more generally, to deal with exceptional events and contingencies. We first study whether the Italian legal system allows for ''maintenance'' remedies to cope with contingencies and to avoid the termination of the contract, while ensuring effective protection of the interests of both parties. We then give a complete and technical description of an AI-based predictive framework, aimed at assisting both the Magistrate (in the course of litigation) and the parties themselves (in out-of-court proceedings) in the redetermination of the rent of commercial lease contracts. This framework, called A.I.A.Co. for Artificial Intelligence for contract law Against Covid-19, has been developed under the Italian grant ''Fondo Integrativo Speciale per la Ricerca''.

Carlo Metta, Marco Gregnanin, Andrea Papini et al.

This paper presents the second-place methodology in the Volvo Discovery Challenge at ECML-PKDD 2024, where we used Long Short-Term Memory networks and pseudo-labeling to predict maintenance needs for a component of Volvo trucks. We processed the training data to mirror the test set structure and applied a base LSTM model to label the test data iteratively. This approach refined our model's predictive capabilities and culminated in a macro-average F1-score of 0.879, demonstrating robust performance in predictive maintenance. This work provides valuable insights for applying machine learning techniques effectively in industrial settings.

Flora Angileri, Giulia Lombardi, Andrea Fois et al.

In 2021, Adam Zsolt Wagner proposed an approach to disprove conjectures in graph theory using Reinforcement Learning (RL). Wagner's idea can be framed as follows: consider a conjecture, such as a certain quantity f(G) < 0 for every graph G; one can then play a single-player graph-building game, where at each turn the player decides whether to add an edge or not. The game ends when all edges have been considered, resulting in a certain graph G_T, and f(G_T) is the final score of the game; RL is then used to maximize this score. This brilliant idea is as simple as innovative, and it lends itself to systematic generalization. Several different single-player graph-building games can be employed, along with various RL algorithms. Moreover, RL maximizes the cumulative reward, allowing for step-by-step rewards instead of a single final score, provided the final cumulative reward represents the quantity of interest f(G_T). In this paper, we discuss these and various other choices that can be significant in Wagner's framework. As a contribution to this systematization, we present four distinct single-player graph-building games. Each game employs both a step-by-step reward system and a single final score. We also propose a principled approach to select the most suitable neural network architecture for any given conjecture, and introduce a new dataset of graphs labeled with their Laplacian spectra. Furthermore, we provide a counterexample for a conjecture regarding the sum of the matching number and the spectral radius, which is simpler than the example provided in Wagner's original paper. The games have been implemented as environments in the Gymnasium framework, and along with the dataset, are available as open-source supplementary materials.

Luca Pasqualini, Gianluca Amato, Marco Fantozzi et al.

In the last years, the DeepMind algorithm AlphaZero has become the state of the art to efficiently tackle perfect information two-player zero-sum games with a win/lose outcome. However, when the win/lose outcome is decided by a final score difference, AlphaZero may play score-suboptimal moves because all winning final positions are equivalent from the win/lose outcome perspective. This can be an issue, for instance when used for teaching, or when trying to understand whether there is a better move. Moreover, there is the theoretical quest for the perfect game. A naive approach would be training an AlphaZero-like agent to predict score differences instead of win/lose outcomes. Since the game of Go is deterministic, this should as well produce an outcome-optimal play. However, it is a folklore belief that "this does not work". In this paper, we first provide empirical evidence for this belief. We then give a theoretical interpretation of this suboptimality in general perfect information two-player zero-sum game where the complexity of a game like Go is replaced by the randomness of the environment. We show that an outcome-optimal policy has a different preference for uncertainty when it is winning or losing. In particular, when in a losing state, an outcome-optimal agent chooses actions leading to a higher score variance. We then posit that when approximation is involved, a deterministic game behaves like a nondeterministic game, where the score variance is modeled by how uncertain the position is. We validate this hypothesis in AlphaZero-like software with a human expert.

Marco Miani, Maurizio Parton, Marco Romito

Having access to an exploring restart distribution (the so-called wide coverage assumption) is critical with policy gradient methods. This is due to the fact that, while the objective function is insensitive to updates in unlikely states, the agent may still need improvements in those states in order to reach a nearly optimal payoff. For this reason, wide coverage is used in some form when analyzing theoretical properties of practical policy gradient methods. However, this assumption can be unfeasible in certain environments, for instance when learning is online, or when restarts are possible only from a fixed initial state. In these cases, classical policy gradient algorithms can have very poor convergence properties and sample efficiency. In this paper, we develop Curious Explorer, a novel and simple iterative state space exploration strategy that can be used with any starting distribution $ρ$. Curious Explorer starts from $ρ$, then using intrinsic rewards assigned to the set of poorly visited states produces a sequence of policies, each one more exploratory than the previous one in an informed way, and finally outputs a restart model $μ$ based on the state visitation distribution of the exploratory policies. Curious Explorer is provable, in the sense that we provide theoretical upper bounds on how often an optimal policy visits poorly visited states. These bounds can be used to prove PAC convergence and sample efficiency results when a PAC optimizer is plugged in Curious Explorer. This allows to achieve global convergence and sample efficiency results without any coverage assumption for REINFORCE, and potentially for any other policy gradient method ensuring PAC convergence with wide coverage. Finally, we plug (the output of) Curious Explorer into REINFORCE and TRPO, and show empirically that it can improve performance in MDPs with challenging exploration.

Luca Pasqualini, Maurizio Parton

A Pseudo-Random Number Generator (PRNG) is any algorithm generating a sequence of numbers approximating properties of random numbers. These numbers are widely employed in mid-level cryptography and in software applications. Test suites are used to evaluate PRNGs quality by checking statistical properties of the generated sequences. These sequences are commonly represented bit by bit. This paper proposes a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach to the task of generating PRNGs from scratch by learning a policy to solve a partially observable Markov Decision Process (MDP), where the full state is the period of the generated sequence and the observation at each time step is the last sequence of bits appended to such state. We use a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) architecture to model the temporal relationship between observations at different time steps, by tasking the LSTM memory with the extraction of significant features of the hidden portion of the MDP's states. We show that modeling a PRNG with a partially observable MDP and a LSTM architecture largely improves the results of the fully observable feedforward RL approach introduced in previous work.

Luca Pasqualini, Maurizio Parton

Pseudo-Random Numbers Generators (PRNGs) are algorithms produced to generate long sequences of statistically uncorrelated numbers, i.e. Pseudo-Random Numbers (PRNs). These numbers are widely employed in mid-level cryptography and in software applications. Test suites are used to evaluate PRNGs quality by checking statistical properties of the generated sequences. Machine learning techniques are often used to break these generators, for instance approximating a certain generator or a certain sequence using a neural network. But what about using machine learning to generate PRNs generators? This paper proposes a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach to the task of generating PRNGs from scratch by learning a policy to solve an N-dimensional navigation problem. In this context, N is the length of the period of the generated sequence, and the policy is iteratively improved using the average value of an appropriate test suite run over that period. Aim of this work is to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach, to compare it with classical methods, and to lay the foundation of a research path which combines RL and PRNGs.

Francesco Morandin, Gianluca Amato, Marco Fantozzi et al.

We develop a new model that can be applied to any perfect information two-player zero-sum game to target a high score, and thus a perfect play. We integrate this model into the Monte Carlo tree search-policy iteration learning pipeline introduced by Google DeepMind with AlphaGo. Training this model on 9x9 Go produces a superhuman Go player, thus proving that it is stable and robust. We show that this model can be used to effectively play with both positional and score handicap, and to minimize suboptimal moves. We develop a family of agents that can target high scores against any opponent, and recover from very severe disadvantage against weak opponents. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first effective achievements in this direction.

Francesco Morandin, Gianluca Amato, Rosa Gini et al.

We propose a multiple-komi modification of the AlphaGo Zero/Leela Zero paradigm. The winrate as a function of the komi is modeled with a two-parameters sigmoid function, so that the neural network must predict just one more variable to assess the winrate for all komi values. A second novel feature is that training is based on self-play games that occasionally branch -- with changed komi -- when the position is uneven. With this setting, reinforcement learning is showed to work on 7x7 Go, obtaining very strong playing agents. As a useful byproduct, the sigmoid parameters given by the network allow to estimate the score difference on the board, and to evaluate how much the game is decided.