Dan Assouline

Oussama Boussif, Dan Assouline, Loubna Benabbou et al.

The computational complexity of classical numerical methods for solving Partial Differential Equations (PDE) scales significantly as the resolution increases. As an important example, climate predictions require fine spatio-temporal resolutions to resolve all turbulent scales in the fluid simulations. This makes the task of accurately resolving these scales computationally out of reach even with modern supercomputers. As a result, current numerical modelers solve PDEs on grids that are too coarse (3km to 200km on each side), which hinders the accuracy and usefulness of the predictions. In this paper, we leverage the recent advances in Implicit Neural Representations (INR) to design a novel architecture that predicts the spatially continuous solution of a PDE given a spatial position query. By augmenting coordinate-based architectures with Graph Neural Networks (GNN), we enable zero-shot generalization to new non-uniform meshes and long-term predictions up to 250 frames ahead that are physically consistent. Our Mesh Agnostic Neural PDE Solver (MAgNet) is able to make accurate predictions across a variety of PDE simulation datasets and compares favorably with existing baselines. Moreover, MAgNet generalizes well to different meshes and resolutions up to four times those trained on.

Oussama Boussif, Ghait Boukachab, Dan Assouline et al.

Solar power harbors immense potential in mitigating climate change by substantially reducing CO$_{2}$ emissions. Nonetheless, the inherent variability of solar irradiance poses a significant challenge for seamlessly integrating solar power into the electrical grid. While the majority of prior research has centered on employing purely time series-based methodologies for solar forecasting, only a limited number of studies have taken into account factors such as cloud cover or the surrounding physical context. In this paper, we put forth a deep learning architecture designed to harness spatio-temporal context using satellite data, to attain highly accurate \textit{day-ahead} time-series forecasting for any given station, with a particular emphasis on forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). We also suggest a methodology to extract a distribution for each time step prediction, which can serve as a very valuable measure of uncertainty attached to the forecast. When evaluating models, we propose a testing scheme in which we separate particularly difficult examples from easy ones, in order to capture the model performances in crucial situations, which in the case of this study are the days suffering from varying cloudy conditions. Furthermore, we present a new multi-modal dataset gathering satellite imagery over a large zone and time series for solar irradiance and other related physical variables from multiple geographically diverse solar stations. Our approach exhibits robust performance in solar irradiance forecasting, including zero-shot generalization tests at unobserved solar stations, and holds great promise in promoting the effective integration of solar power into the grid.

Dan Assouline, Erwan Koch, Federico Amato et al.

Skillful medium-range precipitation forecasting at kilometer scale remains challenging over complex terrain because precipitation arises from multiscale nonlinear processes that global models cannot explicitly resolve at affordable cost. Global AI weather models can produce skillful medium-range forecasts, but their native 0.25 degrees resolution limits direct use for local hazard applications. Statistical downscaling can help bridge this gap, yet existing approaches often struggle with state-dependent, and especially lead-time-dependent, biases in global forecasts. We introduce SwAIther-Precip, a lead-time-aware downscaling framework that converts coarse-resolution AIFS forecasts into probabilistic km-scale precipitation fields over Switzerland. First, a U-Net conditioned on lead time via feature-wise linear modulation deterministically corrects systematic biases at coarse resolution. This targeted correction enables a cheaper super-resolution stage conditioned only on corrected precipitation, allowing direct training on observations rather than on the full atmospheric state. A diffusion-based model then generates fine-scale spatial variability independently of lead time. Using AIFS forecasts and CombiPrecip radar-gauge observations, SwAIther-Precip reduces CRPS by 48% relative to raw AIFS. The generated fields reproduce observed spatial variability with spectral fidelity above 0.85 at large scales and 0.88 at small scales, corresponding to an effective resolution of approximately 4 km on a 1 km grid for lead times up to 5 days. Training across lead times further improves long-range performance, yielding a 13% CRPS reduction at 6 days relative to lead-time-specific models. These results show that explicitly correcting lead-time-dependent biases before generative super-resolution is key to efficient km-scale probabilistic downscaling of global AI precipitation forecasts.