Chirag Modi

Chirag Modi, Charles Margossian, Yuling Yao et al.

Variational inference (VI) is a method to approximate the computationally intractable posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian statistics. Typically, VI fits a simple parametric distribution to the target posterior by minimizing an appropriate objective such as the evidence lower bound (ELBO). In this work, we present a new approach to VI based on the principle of score matching, that if two distributions are equal then their score functions (i.e., gradients of the log density) are equal at every point on their support. With this, we develop score matching VI, an iterative algorithm that seeks to match the scores between the variational approximation and the exact posterior. At each iteration, score matching VI solves an inner optimization, one that minimally adjusts the current variational estimate to match the scores at a newly sampled value of the latent variables. We show that when the variational family is a Gaussian, this inner optimization enjoys a closed form solution, which we call Gaussian score matching VI (GSM-VI). GSM-VI is also a ``black box'' variational algorithm in that it only requires a differentiable joint distribution, and as such it can be applied to a wide class of models. We compare GSM-VI to black box variational inference (BBVI), which has similar requirements but instead optimizes the ELBO. We study how GSM-VI behaves as a function of the problem dimensionality, the condition number of the target covariance matrix (when the target is Gaussian), and the degree of mismatch between the approximating and exact posterior distribution. We also study GSM-VI on a collection of real-world Bayesian inference problems from the posteriorDB database of datasets and models. In all of our studies we find that GSM-VI is faster than BBVI, but without sacrificing accuracy. It requires 10-100x fewer gradient evaluations to obtain a comparable quality of approximation.

Pablo Lemos, Liam Parker, ChangHoon Hahn et al.

We present the first simulation-based inference (SBI) of cosmological parameters from field-level analysis of galaxy clustering. Standard galaxy clustering analyses rely on analyzing summary statistics, such as the power spectrum, $P_\ell$, with analytic models based on perturbation theory. Consequently, they do not fully exploit the non-linear and non-Gaussian features of the galaxy distribution. To address these limitations, we use the {\sc SimBIG} forward modelling framework to perform SBI using normalizing flows. We apply SimBIG to a subset of the BOSS CMASS galaxy sample using a convolutional neural network with stochastic weight averaging to perform massive data compression of the galaxy field. We infer constraints on $Ω_m = 0.267^{+0.033}_{-0.029}$ and $σ_8=0.762^{+0.036}_{-0.035}$. While our constraints on $Ω_m$ are in-line with standard $P_\ell$ analyses, those on $σ_8$ are $2.65\times$ tighter. Our analysis also provides constraints on the Hubble constant $H_0=64.5 \pm 3.8 \ {\rm km / s / Mpc}$ from galaxy clustering alone. This higher constraining power comes from additional non-Gaussian cosmological information, inaccessible with $P_\ell$. We demonstrate the robustness of our analysis by showcasing our ability to infer unbiased cosmological constraints from a series of test simulations that are constructed using different forward models than the one used in our training dataset. This work not only presents competitive cosmological constraints but also introduces novel methods for leveraging additional cosmological information in upcoming galaxy surveys like DESI, PFS, and Euclid.

Shivam Pandey, Christopher C. Lovell, Chirag Modi et al.

Connecting the formation and evolution of galaxies to the large-scale structure is crucial for interpreting cosmological observations. While hydrodynamical simulations accurately model the correlated properties of galaxies, they are computationally prohibitive to run over volumes that match modern surveys. We address this by developing a framework to rapidly generate mock galaxy catalogs conditioned on inexpensive dark-matter-only simulations. We present a multi-modal, transformer-based model that takes 3D dark matter density and velocity fields as input, and outputs a corresponding point cloud of galaxies with their physical properties. We demonstrate that our trained model faithfully reproduces a variety of galaxy summary statistics and correctly captures their variation with changes in the underlying cosmological and astrophysical parameters, making it the first accelerated forward model to capture all the relevant galaxy properties, their full spatial distribution, and their conditional dependencies in hydrosimulations.

Matthew Ho, Deaglan J. Bartlett, Nicolas Chartier et al.

This paper presents the Learning the Universe Implicit Likelihood Inference (LtU-ILI) pipeline, a codebase for rapid, user-friendly, and cutting-edge machine learning (ML) inference in astrophysics and cosmology. The pipeline includes software for implementing various neural architectures, training schemata, priors, and density estimators in a manner easily adaptable to any research workflow. It includes comprehensive validation metrics to assess posterior estimate coverage, enhancing the reliability of inferred results. Additionally, the pipeline is easily parallelizable and is designed for efficient exploration of modeling hyperparameters. To demonstrate its capabilities, we present real applications across a range of astrophysics and cosmology problems, such as: estimating galaxy cluster masses from X-ray photometry; inferring cosmology from matter power spectra and halo point clouds; characterizing progenitors in gravitational wave signals; capturing physical dust parameters from galaxy colors and luminosities; and establishing properties of semi-analytic models of galaxy formation. We also include exhaustive benchmarking and comparisons of all implemented methods as well as discussions about the challenges and pitfalls of ML inference in astronomical sciences. All code and examples are made publicly available at https://github.com/maho3/ltu-ili.

Chirag Modi, Jiequn Han, Eric Vanden-Eijnden et al.

Transport-based methods have emerged as a leading paradigm for building generative models from large, clean datasets. However, in many scientific and engineering domains, clean data are often unavailable: instead, we only observe measurements corrupted through a noisy, ill-conditioned channel. A generative model for the original data thus requires solving an inverse problem at the level of distributions. In this work, we introduce a novel approach to this task based on Stochastic Interpolants: we iteratively update a transport map between corrupted and clean data samples using only access to the corrupted dataset as well as black box access to the corruption channel. Under appropriate conditions, this iterative procedure converges towards a self-consistent transport map that effectively inverts the corruption channel, thus enabling a generative model for the clean data. We refer to the resulting method as the self-consistent stochastic interpolant (SCSI). It (i) is computationally efficient compared to variational alternatives, (ii) highly flexible, handling arbitrary nonlinear forward models with only black-box access, and (iii) enjoys theoretical guarantees. We demonstrate superior performance on inverse problems in natural image processing and scientific reconstruction, and establish convergence guarantees of the scheme under appropriate assumptions.

Diana Cai, Chirag Modi, Loucas Pillaud-Vivien et al.

Most leading implementations of black-box variational inference (BBVI) are based on optimizing a stochastic evidence lower bound (ELBO). But such approaches to BBVI often converge slowly due to the high variance of their gradient estimates and their sensitivity to hyperparameters. In this work, we propose batch and match (BaM), an alternative approach to BBVI based on a score-based divergence. Notably, this score-based divergence can be optimized by a closed-form proximal update for Gaussian variational families with full covariance matrices. We analyze the convergence of BaM when the target distribution is Gaussian, and we prove that in the limit of infinite batch size the variational parameter updates converge exponentially quickly to the target mean and covariance. We also evaluate the performance of BaM on Gaussian and non-Gaussian target distributions that arise from posterior inference in hierarchical and deep generative models. In these experiments, we find that BaM typically converges in fewer (and sometimes significantly fewer) gradient evaluations than leading implementations of BBVI based on ELBO maximization.

Diana Cai, Chirag Modi, Charles C. Margossian et al.

We develop EigenVI, an eigenvalue-based approach for black-box variational inference (BBVI). EigenVI constructs its variational approximations from orthogonal function expansions. For distributions over $\mathbb{R}^D$, the lowest order term in these expansions provides a Gaussian variational approximation, while higher-order terms provide a systematic way to model non-Gaussianity. These approximations are flexible enough to model complex distributions (multimodal, asymmetric), but they are simple enough that one can calculate their low-order moments and draw samples from them. EigenVI can also model other types of random variables (e.g., nonnegative, bounded) by constructing variational approximations from different families of orthogonal functions. Within these families, EigenVI computes the variational approximation that best matches the score function of the target distribution by minimizing a stochastic estimate of the Fisher divergence. Notably, this optimization reduces to solving a minimum eigenvalue problem, so that EigenVI effectively sidesteps the iterative gradient-based optimizations that are required for many other BBVI algorithms. (Gradient-based methods can be sensitive to learning rates, termination criteria, and other tunable hyperparameters.) We use EigenVI to approximate a variety of target distributions, including a benchmark suite of Bayesian models from posteriordb. On these distributions, we find that EigenVI is more accurate than existing methods for Gaussian BBVI.

Chirag Modi, Diana Cai, Lawrence K. Saul

Black-box variational inference (BBVI) scales poorly to high-dimensional problems when it is used to estimate a multivariate Gaussian approximation with a full covariance matrix. In this paper, we extend the batch-and-match (BaM) framework for score-based BBVI to problems where it is prohibitively expensive to store such covariance matrices, let alone to estimate them. Unlike classical algorithms for BBVI, which use stochastic gradient descent to minimize the reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence, BaM uses more specialized updates to match the scores of the target density and its Gaussian approximation. We extend the updates for BaM by integrating them with a more compact parameterization of full covariance matrices. In particular, borrowing ideas from factor analysis, we add an extra step to each iteration of BaM--a patch--that projects each newly updated covariance matrix into a more efficiently parameterized family of diagonal plus low rank matrices. We evaluate this approach on a variety of synthetic target distributions and real-world problems in high-dimensional inference.

Michael Crawshaw, Chirag Modi, Mingrui Liu et al.

To define a steepest descent method over a neural network, we need to choose a norm for each layer, a way to aggregate these norms across layers, and whether to use normalization. We systematically explore different alternatives for aggregating norms across layers, both formalizing existing combinations of Adam and the recently proposed Muon as a type of non-Euclidean gradient descent, and deriving new variants of the Muon optimizer. Through a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the optimizers within our framework, we find that Muon is sensitive to the choice of learning rate, whereas a new variant we call MuonMax is significantly more robust. We then show how to combine any non-Euclidean gradient method with model based momentum (known as Momo). The new Momo variants of Muon are significantly more robust to hyperparameter tuning, and often achieve a better validation score. Thus for new tasks, where the optimal hyperparameters are not known, we advocate for using Momo in combination with MuonMax to save on costly hyperparameter tuning.

Chirag Modi

Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo (HMC) and its auto-tuned variant, the No U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) can struggle to accurately sample distributions with complex geometries, e.g., varying curvature, due to their constant step size for leapfrog integration and fixed mass matrix. In this work, we develop a strategy to locally adapt the step size parameter of HMC at every iteration by evaluating a low-rank approximation of the local Hessian and estimating its largest eigenvalue. We combine it with a strategy to similarly adapt the trajectory length by monitoring the no U-turn condition, resulting in an adaptive sampler, ATLAS: adapting trajectory length and step-size. We further use a delayed rejection framework for making multiple proposals that improves the computational efficiency of ATLAS, and develop an approach for automatically tuning its hyperparameters during warmup. We compare ATLAS with state-of-the-art samplers like NUTS on a suite of synthetic and real world examples, and show that i) unlike NUTS, ATLAS is able to accurately sample difficult distributions with complex geometries, ii) it is computationally competitive to NUTS for simpler distributions, and iii) it is more robust to the tuning of hyperparamters.

Chirag Modi, Alex Barnett, Bob Carpenter

The efficiency of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) can suffer when sampling a distribution with a wide range of length scales, because the small step sizes needed for stability in high-curvature regions are inefficient elsewhere. To address this we present a delayed rejection variant: if an initial HMC trajectory is rejected, we make one or more subsequent proposals each using a step size geometrically smaller than the last. We extend the standard delayed rejection framework by allowing the probability of a retry to depend on the probability of accepting the previous proposal. We test the scheme in several sampling tasks, including multiscale model distributions such as Neal's funnel, and statistical applications. Delayed rejection enables up to five-fold performance gains over optimally-tuned HMC, as measured by effective sample size per gradient evaluation. Even for simpler distributions, delayed rejection provides increased robustness to step size misspecification. Along the way, we provide an accessible but rigorous review of detailed balance for HMC.

Chirag Modi, Uros Seljak

A common statistical problem in econometrics is to estimate the impact of a treatment on a treated unit given a control sample with untreated outcomes. Here we develop a generative learning approach to this problem, learning the probability distribution of the data, which can be used for downstream tasks such as post-treatment counterfactual prediction and hypothesis testing. We use control samples to transform the data to a Gaussian and homoschedastic form and then perform Gaussian process analysis in Fourier space, evaluating the optimal Gaussian kernel via non-parametric power spectrum estimation. We combine this Gaussian prior with the data likelihood given by the pre-treatment data of the single unit, to obtain the synthetic prediction of the unit post-treatment, which minimizes the error variance of synthetic prediction. Given the generative model the minimum variance counterfactual is unique, and comes with an associated error covariance matrix. We extend this basic formalism to include correlations of primary variable with other covariates of interest. Given the probabilistic description of generative model we can compare synthetic data prediction with real data to address the question of whether the treatment had a statistically significant impact. For this purpose we develop a hypothesis testing approach and evaluate the Bayes factor. We apply the method to the well studied example of California (CA) tobacco sales tax of 1988. We also perform a placebo analysis using control states to validate our methodology. Our hypothesis testing method suggests 5.8:1 odds in favor of CA tobacco sales tax having an impact on the tobacco sales, a value that is at least three times higher than any of the 38 control states.

Vishal Vadgama, Bhavin Tanti, Chirag Modi et al.

In today's world of E-Commerce everything comes online like Music, E-Books, Shopping all most everything is online. If you are using some service or buying things online then you have to pay for that. For that you have to do Net Banking or you have to use Credit card which will do online payment for you. In today's environment when everything is online, the service you are using for E-Payment must be secure and you must protect your banking information like debit card or credit card information from possible threat of hacking. There were lots way to threat like Key logger, Forgery Detection, Phishing, Shoulder surfing. Therefore, we reveal our actual information of Bank and Credit Card then there will be a chance to lose data and same credit card and hackers can use banking information for malicious purpose. In this paper we discuss available E-Payment protocols, examine its advantages and delimitation's and shows that there are steel needs to design a more secure E-Payment protocol. The suggested protocol is based on using hash function and using dynamic or virtual password, which protects your banking or credit card information from possible threat of hacking when doing online transactions.