Miklós Rásonyi

Attila Lovas, Miklós Rásonyi

We study the mixing properties of an important optimization algorithm of machine learning: the stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) with a fixed step size. The data stream is not assumed to be independent hence the SGLD is not a Markov chain, merely a \emph{Markov chain in a random environment}, which complicates the mathematical treatment considerably. We derive a strong law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for SGLD.

Bence Ladóczk, Miklós Rásonyi, János Tapolcai

A central question of the Ethereum ecosystem is where Maximal Extractable Value (MEV)revenue originates and to what extent it stems from harming unsuspecting users. It is acceptable if MEV arises from arbitrages between centralised and decentralised exchanges (CEX-DEX). Yet theoretical models have significantly underestimated the scale of these arbitrages, while empirical studies have highlighted their importance - though these remain conservative estimates, constrained by numerous debatable heuristic assumptions. Revisiting the theoretical model, we found that CEX-DEX arbitrages require trading volumes on the order of the total activity of major liquidity pools and yield profits comparable to MEV. Most prior AMM models utilised the Black-Scholes (BS) stochastic differential equation (SDE) - i.e., geometric Brownian motion - and assumed continuous price trajectories where asset prices move in small increments only.We argue that BS underestimates arbitrage profits by ignoring price jumps, which are precisely the points at which arbitrage opportunities tend to arise. To address this gap, we present an extended discrete-time AMM model in which the price process is the sum of a diffusive component and stochastic jumps that can have arbitrary noise distributions. Although mathematically more involved this framework allows us to employ a general discrete-time SDE and compute the stationary probability distribution via function iteration with geometric convergence. We further prove that the resulting mispricing process is an ergodic Markov chain. We implement our model in C++, collect spot prices and AMM exchange data from the Ethereum blockchain and fit the model parameters to the observed prices. The estimates derived from our model closely match empirical observations and provide a natural theoretical explanation for several fundamental questions in the blockchain ecosystem.

Attila Lovas, Iosif Lytras, Miklós Rásonyi et al.

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are typically highly nonlinear systems which are finely tuned via the optimization of their associated, non-convex loss functions. In many cases, the gradient of any such loss function has superlinear growth, making the use of the widely-accepted (stochastic) gradient descent methods, which are based on Euler numerical schemes, problematic. We offer a new learning algorithm based on an appropriately constructed variant of the popular stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD), which is called tamed unadjusted stochastic Langevin algorithm (TUSLA). We also provide a nonasymptotic analysis of the new algorithm's convergence properties in the context of non-convex learning problems with the use of ANNs. Thus, we provide finite-time guarantees for TUSLA to find approximate minimizers of both empirical and population risks. The roots of the TUSLA algorithm are based on the taming technology for diffusion processes with superlinear coefficients as developed in \citet{tamed-euler, SabanisAoAP} and for MCMC algorithms in \citet{tula}. Numerical experiments are presented which confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate the need for the use of the new algorithm in comparison to vanilla SGLD within the framework of ANNs.

Attila Lovas, Miklós Rásonyi

We prove the existence of limiting distributions for a large class of Markov chains on a general state space in a random environment. We assume suitable versions of the standard drift and minorization conditions. In particular, the system dynamics should be contractive on the average with respect to the Lyapunov function and large enough small sets should exist with large enough minorization constants. We also establish that a law of large numbers holds for bounded functionals of the process. Applications to queuing systems, to machine learning algorithms and to autoregressive processes are presented.