Alex J. DeGrave

Joseph D. Janizek, Gabriel Erion, Alex J. DeGrave et al.

While deep learning has shown promise in the domain of disease classification from medical images, models based on state-of-the-art convolutional neural network architectures often exhibit performance loss due to dataset shift. Models trained using data from one hospital system achieve high predictive performance when tested on data from the same hospital, but perform significantly worse when they are tested in different hospital systems. Furthermore, even within a given hospital system, deep learning models have been shown to depend on hospital- and patient-level confounders rather than meaningful pathology to make classifications. In order for these models to be safely deployed, we would like to ensure that they do not use confounding variables to make their classification, and that they will work well even when tested on images from hospitals that were not included in the training data. We attempt to address this problem in the context of pneumonia classification from chest radiographs. We propose an approach based on adversarial optimization, which allows us to learn more robust models that do not depend on confounders. Specifically, we demonstrate improved out-of-hospital generalization performance of a pneumonia classifier by training a model that is invariant to the view position of chest radiographs (anterior-posterior vs. posterior-anterior). Our approach leads to better predictive performance on external hospital data than both a standard baseline and previously proposed methods to handle confounding, and also suggests a method for identifying models that may rely on confounders. Code available at https://github.com/suinleelab/cxr_adv.

Scott M. Lundberg, Gabriel Erion, Hugh Chen et al.

Tree-based machine learning models such as random forests, decision trees, and gradient boosted trees are the most popular non-linear predictive models used in practice today, yet comparatively little attention has been paid to explaining their predictions. Here we significantly improve the interpretability of tree-based models through three main contributions: 1) The first polynomial time algorithm to compute optimal explanations based on game theory. 2) A new type of explanation that directly measures local feature interaction effects. 3) A new set of tools for understanding global model structure based on combining many local explanations of each prediction. We apply these tools to three medical machine learning problems and show how combining many high-quality local explanations allows us to represent global structure while retaining local faithfulness to the original model. These tools enable us to i) identify high magnitude but low frequency non-linear mortality risk factors in the general US population, ii) highlight distinct population sub-groups with shared risk characteristics, iii) identify non-linear interaction effects among risk factors for chronic kidney disease, and iv) monitor a machine learning model deployed in a hospital by identifying which features are degrading the model's performance over time. Given the popularity of tree-based machine learning models, these improvements to their interpretability have implications across a broad set of domains.