Kate Saunders

Alejo Nevado-Holgado, Colin Espie, Maria Liakata et al.

SleepioTM is a digital mobile phone and web platform that uses techniques from cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) to improve sleep in people with sleep difficulty. As part of this process, Sleepio captures data about the sleep behaviour of the users that have consented to such data being processed. For neural networks, the scale of the data is an opportunity to train meaningful models translatable to actual clinical practice. In collaboration with Big Health, the therapeutics company that created and utilizes Sleepio, we have analysed data from a random sample of 401,174 sleep diaries and built a neural network to model sleep behaviour and sleep quality of each individual in a personalised manner. We demonstrate that this neural network is more accurate than standard statistical methods in predicting the sleep quality of an individual based on his/her behaviour from the last 10 days. We compare model performance in a wide range of hyperparameter settings representing various scenarios. We further show that the neural network can be used to produce personalised recommendations of what sleep habits users should follow to maximise sleep quality, and show that these recommendations are substantially better than the ones generated by standard methods. We finally show that the neural network can explain the recommendation given to each participant and calculate confidence intervals for each prediction, all of which are essential for clinicians to be able to adopt such a tool in clinical practice.

Bo Wang, Yue Wu, Nemanja Vaci et al.

Bipolar disorder (BD) and borderline personality disorder (BPD) are two chronic mental health conditions that clinicians find challenging to distinguish based on clinical interviews, due to their overlapping symptoms. In this work, we investigate the automatic detection of these two conditions by modelling both verbal and non-verbal cues in a set of interviews. We propose a new approach of modelling short-term features with visibility-signature transform, and compare it with widely used high-level statistical functions. We demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed signature-based model. Furthermore, we show the role of different sets of features in characterising BD and BPD.

Bo Wang, Yue Wu, Niall Taylor et al.

Bipolar disorder (BD) and borderline personality disorder (BPD) are both chronic psychiatric disorders. However, their overlapping symptoms and common comorbidity make it challenging for the clinicians to distinguish the two conditions on the basis of a clinical interview. In this work, we first present a new multi-modal dataset containing interviews involving individuals with BD or BPD being interviewed about a non-clinical topic . We investigate the automatic detection of the two conditions, and demonstrate a good linear classifier that can be learnt using a down-selected set of features from the different aspects of the interviews and a novel approach of summarising these features. Finally, we find that different sets of features characterise BD and BPD, thus providing insights into the difference between the automatic screening of the two conditions.

Oliver Carr, Fernando Andreotti, Kate E. A. Saunders et al.

Current management of bipolar disorder relies on self-reported questionnaires and interviews with clinicians. The development of objective measures of deteriorating mood may also allow for early interventions to take place to avoid transitions into depressive states. The objective of this study was to use acceleration data recorded from smartphones to predict levels of depression in a population of participants diagnosed with bipolar disorder. Data were collected from 52 participants, with a mean of 37 weeks of acceleration data with a corresponding depression score recorded per participant. Time varying hidden Markov models were used to extract weekly features of activity, sleep and circadian rhythms. Personalised regression achieved mean absolute errors of 1.00(0.57) from a possible scale of 0 to 27 and was able to classify depression with an accuracy of 0.84(0.16). The results demonstrate features derived from smartphone accelerometers are able to provide objective markers of depression. Low barriers for uptake exist due to the widespread use of smartphones, with personalised models able to account for differences in the behaviour of individuals and provide accurate predictions of depression.

Andrey Kormilitzin, Kate E. A. Saunders, Paul J. Harrison et al.

Recurrent major mood episodes and subsyndromal mood instability cause substantial disability in patients with bipolar disorder. Early identification of mood episodes enabling timely mood stabilisation is an important clinical goal. Recent technological advances allow the prospective reporting of mood in real time enabling more accurate, efficient data capture. The complex nature of these data streams in combination with challenge of deriving meaning from missing data mean pose a significant analytic challenge. The signature method is derived from stochastic analysis and has the ability to capture important properties of complex ordered time series data. To explore whether the onset of episodes of mania and depression can be identified using self-reported mood data.

A. B. Kormilitzin, K. E. A. Saunders, P. J. Harrison et al.

The classification procedure of streaming data usually requires various ad hoc methods or particular heuristic models. We explore a novel non-parametric and systematic approach to analysis of heterogeneous sequential data. We demonstrate an application of this method to classification of the delays in responding to the prompts, from subjects with bipolar disorder collected during a clinical trial, using both synthetic and real examples. We show how this method can provide a natural and systematic way to extract characteristic features from sequential data.