Mardavij Roozbehani

Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther A Dahleh, Sanjoy K Mitter

The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, and is shown to create a closed-loop feedback system between the physical layer and the market layer of the power system. In the absence of a carefully designed control law, such direct feedback between the two layers could increase volatility and lower the system's robustness to uncertainty in demand and generation. A new notion of generalized price-elasticity is introduced, and it is shown that price volatility can be characterized in terms of the system's maximal relative price elasticity, defined as the maximal ratio of the generalized price-elasticity of consumers to that of the producers. As this ratio increases, the system becomes more volatile, and eventually, unstable. As new demand response technologies and distributed storage increase the price-elasticity of demand, the architecture under examination is likely to lead to increased volatility and possibly instability. This highlights the need for assessing architecture systematically and in advance, in order to optimally strike the trade-offs between volatility, economic efficiency, and system reliability.

Amir Ali Ahmadi, Raphaël Jungers, Pablo A. Parrilo et al.

We introduce the framework of path-complete graph Lyapunov functions for approximation of the joint spectral radius. The approach is based on the analysis of the underlying switched system via inequalities imposed among multiple Lyapunov functions associated to a labeled directed graph. Inspired by concepts in automata theory and symbolic dynamics, we define a class of graphs called path-complete graphs, and show that any such graph gives rise to a method for proving stability of the switched system. This enables us to derive several asymptotically tight hierarchies of semidefinite programming relaxations that unify and generalize many existing techniques such as common quadratic, common sum of squares, and maximum/minimum-of-quadratics Lyapunov functions. We compare the quality of approximation obtained by certain classes of path-complete graphs including a family of dual graphs and all path-complete graphs with two nodes on an alphabet of two matrices. We provide approximation guarantees for several families of path-complete graphs, such as the De Bruijn graphs, establishing as a byproduct a constructive converse Lyapunov theorem for maximum/minimum-of-quadratics Lyapunov functions.

Datong P. Zhou, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther A. Dahleh et al.

This paper analyzes stability conditions for wholesale electricity markets under real-time retail pricing and realistic consumption models with memory, which explicitly take into account previous electricity prices and consumption levels. By passing on the current retail price of electricity from supplier to consumer and feeding the observed consumption back to the supplier, a closed-loop dynamical system for electricity prices and consumption arises whose stability is to be investigated. Under mild assumptions on the generation cost of electricity and consumers' backlog disutility functions, we show that, for consumer models with price memory only, market stability is achieved if the ratio between the consumers' marginal backlog disutility and the suppliers' marginal cost of supply remains below a fixed threshold. Further, consumer models with price and consumption memory can result in greater stability regions and faster convergence to the equilibrium compared to models with price memory alone, if consumption deviations from nominal demand are adequately penalized.

Mardavij Roozbehani, Alexandre Megretski, Eric Feron

The paper proposes a control-theoretic framework for verification of numerical software systems, and puts forward software verification as an important application of control and systems theory. The idea is to transfer Lyapunov functions and the associated computational techniques from control systems analysis and convex optimization to verification of various software safety and performance specifications. These include but are not limited to absence of overflow, absence of division-by-zero, termination in finite time, presence of dead-code, and certain user-specified assertions. Central to this framework are Lyapunov invariants. These are properly constructed functions of the program variables, and satisfy certain properties-resembling those of Lyapunov functions-along the execution trace. The search for the invariants can be formulated as a convex optimization problem. If the associated optimization problem is feasible, the result is a certificate for the specification.

Mardavij Roozbehani, Alexandre Megretski, Eric Feron

The paper proposes a control-theoretic framework for verification of numerical software systems, and puts forward software verification as an important application of control and systems theory. The idea is to transfer Lyapunov functions and the associated computational techniques from control systems analysis and convex optimization to verification of various software safety and performance specifications. These include but are not limited to absence of overflow, absence of division-by-zero, termination in finite time, presence of dead-code, and certain user-specified assertions. Central to this framework are Lyapunov invariants. These are properly constructed functions of the program variables, and satisfy certain properties-resembling those of Lyapunov functions-along the execution trace. The search for the invariants can be formulated as a convex optimization problem. If the associated optimization problem is feasible, the result is a certificate for the specification.

Amir Ali Ahmadi, Raphael M. Jungers, Pablo A. Parrilo et al.

We study stability criteria for discrete time switching systems. We investigate the structure of sets of LMIs that are a sufficient condition for stability (i.e., such that any switching system which satisfies these LMIs is stable). We provide an exact characterization of these sets. As a corollary, we show that it is PSPACE-complete to recognize whether a particular set of LMIs implies the stability of a switching system.

Qingqing Huang, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther A Dahleh

In this paper, we examine in an abstract framework, how a tradeoff between efficiency and robustness arises in different dynamic oligopolistic market architectures. We consider a market in which there is a monopolistic resource provider and agents that enter and exit the market following a random process. Self-interested and fully rational agents dynamically update their resource consumption decisions over a finite time horizon, under the constraint that the total resource consumption requirements are met before each individual's deadline. We then compare the statistics of the stationary aggregate demand processes induced by the non-cooperative and cooperative load scheduling schemes. We show that although the non-cooperative load scheduling scheme leads to an efficiency loss - widely known as the "price of anarchy" - the stationary distribution of the corresponding aggregate demand process has a smaller tail. This tail, which corresponds to rare and undesirable demand spikes, is important in many applications of interest. On the other hand, when the agents can cooperate with each other in optimizing their total cost, a higher market efficiency is achieved at the cost of a higher probability of demand spikes. We thus posit that the origins of endogenous risk in such systems may lie in the market architecture, which is an inherent characteristic of the system.

Ali ParandehGheibi, Mardavij Roozbehani, Asuman Ozdaglar et al.

This paper examines the value of storage in securing reliability of a system with uncertain supply and demand, and supply friction. The storage is frictionless as a supply source, but once used, it cannot be filled up instantaneously. The focus application is a power supply network in which the base supply and demand are assumed to match perfectly, while deviations from the base are modeled as random shocks with stochastic arrivals. Due to friction, the random surge shocks cannot be tracked by the main supply sources. Storage, when available, can be used to compensate, fully or partially, for the surge in demand or loss of supply. The problem of optimal utilization of storage with the objective of maximizing system reliability is formulated as minimization of the expected discounted cost of blackouts over an infinite horizon. It is shown that when the stage cost is linear in the size of the blackout, the optimal policy is myopic in the sense that all shocks are compensated by storage up to the available level of storage. However, when the stage cost is strictly convex, it may be optimal to curtail some of the demand and allow a small current blackout in the interest of maintaining a higher level of reserve to avoid a large blackout in the future. The value of storage capacity in improving system's reliability, as well as the effects of the associated optimal policies under different stage costs on the probability distribution of blackouts are examined.

Daria Madjidian, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther A. Dahleh

We investigate the ability of a homogeneous collection of deferrable energy loads to behave as a battery; that is, to absorb and release energy in a controllable fashion up to fixed and predetermined limits on volume, charge rate and discharge rate. We derive explicit bounds on the battery capacity that can be offered, and show that there is a fundamental trade-off between the abilities of collective load to absorb and release energy at high aggregate rates. Finally, we introduce a new class of dynamic priority-driven feedback policies that balance these abilities, and characterize the batteries that they can emulate.

Zaid Almahmoud, Jacob Crandall, Khaled Elbassioni et al.

Minimizing the peak power consumption and matching demand to supply, under fixed threshold polices, are two key requirements for the success of the future electricity market. In this work, we consider dynamic pricing methods to minimize the peak load and match demand to supply in the smart grid. As these optimization problems are computationally hard to solve in general, we propose generic heuristics for approximating their solutions. Further, we provide theoretical analysis of uniform pricing in peak-demand minimization. Moreover, we propose optimal-pricing algorithms for scenarios in which the time-period in which tasks must be executed is relatively small. Finally, we conduct several experiments to evaluate the various algorithms on real data.

Tuhin Sarkar, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther A. Dahleh

We consider the problem of robustness in large consensus networks that occur in many areas such as distributed optimization. Robustness, in this context, is the scaling of performance measures, e.g. H2-norm, as a function of network dimension. We provide a formal framework to quantify the relation between such performance scaling and the convergence speed of the network. Specifically, we provide upper and lower bounds for the convergence speed in terms of robustness and discuss how these bounds scale with the network topology. The main contribution of this work is that we obtain tight bounds, that hold regardless of network topology. The work here also encompasses some results in convergence time analysis in previous literature.

Tuhin Sarkar, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther A. Dahleh

This paper addresses two fundamental problems in the context of jump linear systems (JLS). The first problem is concerned with characterizing the minimal state space dimension solely from input-output pairs and without any knowledge of the number of mode switches. The second problem is concerned with characterizing the number of discrete modes of the JLS. For the first problem, we develop a linear system theory based approach and construct an appropriate Hankel-like matrix. The rank of this matrix gives us the state space dimension. For the second problem we show that minimal number of modes corresponds to the minimal rank of a positive semi-definite matrix obtained via a non--convex formulation.

Ian Schneider, Jun Jie Joseph Kuan, Mardavij Roozbehani et al.

Spurred by the growth of transportation network companies and increasing data capabilities, vehicle routing and ride-matching algorithms can improve the efficiency of private transportation services. However, existing routing solutions do not address where drivers should travel after dropping off a passenger and before receiving the next passenger ride request, i.e., during the between-ride period. We address this problem by developing an efficient algorithm to find the optimal policy for drivers between rides in order to maximize driver profits. We model the road network as a graph, and we show that the between-ride routing problem is equivalent to a stochastic shortest path problem, an infinite dynamic program with no discounting. We prove under reasonable assumptions that an optimal routing policy exists that avoids cycles; policies of this type can be efficiently found. We present an iterative approach to find an optimal routing policy. Our approach can account for various factors, including the frequency of passenger ride requests at different locations, traffic conditions, and surge pricing. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach by implementing it on road network data from Boston and New York City.

Jonas Sievers, Mardavij Roozbehani

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual prediction are still underutilized in this domain. We introduce a Generalized Synthetic Control Method that builds on the classical Synthetic Control Method (SCM) from econometrics. While SCM provides a powerful framework for counterfactual estimation, classical SCM remains a static estimator: it fits the treated unit as a combination of contemporaneous donor units and therefore ignores predictable temporal structure in the residual error. We develop a generalized SCM framework that transforms baseline estimation into a dynamic counterfactual prediction problem by augmenting the donor representation with exogenous features, lagged treated load, and selected lagged donor signals. This enriched representation allows the estimator to capture autoregressive dependence, delayed donor-response patterns, and error-correction effects beyond the scope of standard SCM. The framework further accommodates nonlinear predictors when linear weighting is inadequate, with the greatest benefit arising in limited-data settings. Experiments on the Ausgrid smart-meter dataset show consistent improvements over classical SCM and strong benchmark methods, with the dominant performance gains driven by dynamic augmentation.

Meshal Alharbi, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther Dahleh

The problem of sample complexity of online reinforcement learning is often studied in the literature without taking into account any partial knowledge about the system dynamics that could potentially accelerate the learning process. In this paper, we study the sample complexity of online Q-learning methods when some prior knowledge about the dynamics is available or can be learned efficiently. We focus on systems that evolve according to an additive disturbance model of the form $S_{h+1} = f(S_h, A_h) + W_h$, where $f$ represents the underlying system dynamics, and $W_h$ are unknown disturbances independent of states and actions. In the setting of finite episodic Markov decision processes with $S$ states, $A$ actions, and episode length $H$, we present an optimistic Q-learning algorithm that achieves $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\text{Poly}(H)\sqrt{T})$ regret under perfect knowledge of $f$, where $T$ is the total number of interactions with the system. This is in contrast to the typical $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\text{Poly}(H)\sqrt{SAT})$ regret for existing Q-learning methods. Further, if only a noisy estimate $\hat{f}$ of $f$ is available, our method can learn an approximately optimal policy in a number of samples that is independent of the cardinalities of state and action spaces. The sub-optimality gap depends on the approximation error $\hat{f}-f$, as well as the Lipschitz constant of the corresponding optimal value function. Our approach does not require modeling of the transition probabilities and enjoys the same memory complexity as model-free methods.

Adib Hasan, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther Dahleh

This paper introduces WeatherFormer, a transformer encoder-based model designed to learn robust weather features from minimal observations. It addresses the challenge of modeling complex weather dynamics from small datasets, a bottleneck for many prediction tasks in agriculture, epidemiology, and climate science. WeatherFormer was pretrained on a large pretraining dataset comprised of 39 years of satellite measurements across the Americas. With a novel pretraining task and fine-tuning, WeatherFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance in county-level soybean yield prediction and influenza forecasting. Technical innovations include a unique spatiotemporal encoding that captures geographical, annual, and seasonal variations, adapting the transformer architecture to continuous weather data, and a pretraining strategy to learn representations that are robust to missing weather features. This paper for the first time demonstrates the effectiveness of pretraining large transformer encoder models for weather-dependent applications across multiple domains.

Adib Hasan, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther Dahleh

Accurate crop yield forecasting is essential for global food security. However, current AI models systematically underperform when yields deviate from historical trends. We attribute this to the lack of rich, physically grounded datasets directly linking atmospheric states to yields. To address this, we introduce VITA (Variational Inference Transformer for Asymmetric Data), a variational pretraining framework that learns representations from large satellite-based weather datasets and transfers to the ground-based limited measurements available for yield prediction. VITA is trained using detailed meteorological variables as proxy targets during pretraining and learns to predict latent atmospheric states under a seasonality-aware sinusoidal prior. This allows the model to be fine-tuned using limited weather statistics during deployment. Applied to 763 counties in the US Corn Belt, VITA achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting corn and soybean yields across all evaluation scenarios, particularly during extreme years, with statistically significant improvements (paired t-test, p < 0.0001). Importantly, VITA outperforms prior frameworks like GNN-RNN without soil data, and larger foundational models (e.g., Chronos-Bolt) with less compute, making it practical for real-world use, especially in data-scarce regions. This work highlights how domain-aware AI design can overcome data limitations and support resilient agricultural forecasting in a changing climate.

Tuhin Sarkar, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther A. Dahleh

This paper examines the dependence of network performance measures on network size and considers scaling results for large networks. We connect two performance measures that are well studied, but appear to be unrelated. The first measure is concerned with energy metrics, namely the $\Hcal_2$--norm of a network, which arises in control theory applications. The second measure is concerned with the notion of "tail risk" which arises in economic and financial networks. We study the question of why such performance measures may deteriorate at a faster rate than the growth rate of the network. We first focus on the energy metric and its well known connection to controllability Gramian of the underlying dynamical system. We show that undirected networks exhibit the most graceful energy growth rates as network size grows. This rate is quantified completely by the proximity of spectral radius to unity or distance to instability. In contrast, we show that the simple characterization of energy in terms of network spectrum does not exist for directed networks. We demonstrate that, for any fixed distance to instability, energy of a directed network can grow at an exponentially faster rate. We provide general methods for manipulating networks to reduce energy. In particular, we prove that certain operations that increase the symmetry in a network cannot increase energy (in an order sense). Secondly, we focus on tail risk in economic and financial networks. In contrast to $\Hcal_2$--norm which arises from computing the expectation of energy in the network, tail risk focuses on tail probability behavior of network variables. Although the two measures differ substantially we show that they are precisely connected through the system Gramian. This surprising result explains why topology considerations rather than specific performance measures dictate the large scale behavior of networks.

Daria Madjidian, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther A. Dahleh

We investigate the ability of a homogeneous collection of deferrable energy loads to behave as a battery; that is, to absorb and release energy in a controllable fashion up to fixed and predetermined limits on volume, charge rate and discharge rate. We derive bounds on the battery capacity that can be realized and show that there are fundamental trade-offs between battery parameters. By characterizing the state trajectories under scheduling policies that emulate two illustrative batteries, we show that the trade-offs occur because the states that allow the loads to absorb and release energy at high aggregate rates are conflicting.

A. Yasin Yazicioglu, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther A. Dahleh

In this paper, we investigate the use of variable speed limits for resilient operation of transportation networks, which are modeled as dynamical flow networks under local routing decisions. In such systems, some external inflow is injected to the so-called origin nodes of the network. The total inflow arriving at each node is routed to its operational outgoing links based on their current particle densities. The density on each link has first order dynamics driven by the difference of its incoming and outgoing flows. A link irreversibly fails if it reaches its jam density. Such failures may propagate in the network and cause a systemic failure. We show that larger link capacities do not necessarily help in preventing systemic failures under local routing. Accordingly, we propose the use of variable speed limits to operate the links below their capacities, when necessary, to compensate for the lack of global information and coordination in routing decisions. Our main result shows that systemic failures under feasible external inflows can always be averted through a proper selection of speed limits if the routing decisions are sufficiently responsive to local congestion and the network is initially uncongested. This is an attractive feature as it is much easier in practice to adjust the speed limits than to build more physical capacity or to alter routing decisions that are determined by social behavior.

A. Yasin Yazicioglu, Mardavij Roozbehani, Munther A. Dahleh

In this paper, we are concerned with the resilience of locally routed network flows with finite link capacities. In this setting, an external inflow is injected to the so-called origin nodes. The total inflow arriving at each node is routed locally such that none of the outgoing links are overloaded unless the node receives an inflow greater than its total outgoing capacity. A link irreversibly fails if it is overloaded or if there is no operational link in its immediate downstream to carry its flow. For such systems, resilience is defined as the minimum amount of reduction in the link capacities that would result in the failure of all the outgoing links of an origin node. We show that such networks do not necessarily become more resilient as additional capacity is built in the network. Moreover, when the external inflow does not exceed the network capacity, selective reductions of capacity at certain links can actually help averting the cascading failures, without requiring any change in the local routing policies. This is an attractive feature as it is often easier in practice to reduce the available capacity of some critical links than to add physical capacity or to alter routing policies, e.g., when such policies are determined by social behavior, as in the case of road traffic networks. The results can thus be used for real-time monitoring of distance-to-failure in such networks and devising a feasible course of actions to avert systemic failures.