Matthew Rowe

Jiashu He, Meizhu Liu, Olaitan P Olaleye et al.

Decoding strategies play a central role in shaping the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs). Traditional methods such as greedy decoding and beam search often suffer from error propagation, while sampling-based approaches introduce randomness without adequate robustness. Self-consistency improves reliability by aggregating multiple rollouts, but incurs significant computational overhead. We propose an entropy-guided decoding framework that introduces token-level adaptivity into generation. At each step, the model computes the entropy of the token distribution, identifies high-uncertainty positions, and selectively branches on these vulnerable points. A dynamic pool of partial rollouts is maintained and expanded until solutions are completed, concentrating computation where uncertainty is greatest and avoiding unnecessary exploration in confident regions. To enable efficient termination, we apply a rollout-level Entropy After </Think> (EAT) stopping criterion by performing entropy evaluation after the full reasoning trace, rather than incrementally at every step. Experiments on GSM8K, AMC2023, and their perturbed variants demonstrate that our method achieves consistently strong accuracy. Notably, on smaller LLMs, performance is comparable to GPT-5 while operating at a fraction of the cost.

Rhys Green, Matthew Rowe, Alberto Polleri

Reliable Confidence Estimates are hugely important for any machine learning model to be truly useful. In this paper, we argue that any confidence estimates based upon standard machine learning point prediction algorithms are fundamentally flawed and under situations with a large amount of epistemic uncertainty are likely to be untrustworthy. To address these issues, we present MACEst, a Model Agnostic Confidence Estimator, which provides reliable and trustworthy confidence estimates. The algorithm differs from current methods by estimating confidence independently as a local quantity which explicitly accounts for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. This approach differs from standard calibration methods that use a global point prediction model as a starting point for the confidence estimate.

Leon Derczynski, Matthew Rowe

Existing studies of how information diffuses across social networks have thus far concentrated on analysing and recovering the spread of deterministic innovations such as URLs, hashtags, and group membership. However investigating how mentions of real-world entities appear and spread has yet to be explored, largely due to the computationally intractable nature of performing large-scale entity extraction. In this paper we present, to the best of our knowledge, one of the first pieces of work to closely examine the diffusion of named entities on social media, using Reddit as our case study platform. We first investigate how named entities can be accurately recognised and extracted from discussion posts. We then use these extracted entities to study the patterns of entity cascades and how the probability of a user adopting an entity (i.e. mentioning it) is associated with exposures to the entity. We put these pieces together by presenting a parallelised diffusion model that can forecast the probability of entity adoption, finding that the influence of adoption between users can be characterised by their prior interactions -- as opposed to whether the users propagated entity-adoptions beforehand. Our findings have important implications for researchers studying influence and language, and for community analysts who wish to understand entity-level influence dynamics.

Faiza Samreen, Yehia Elkhatib, Matthew Rowe et al.

Decision making in cloud environments is quite challenging due to the diversity in service offerings and pricing models, especially considering that the cloud market is an incredibly fast moving one. In addition, there are no hard and fast rules, each customer has a specific set of constraints (e.g. budget) and application requirements (e.g. minimum computational resources). Machine learning can help address some of the complicated decisions by carrying out customer-specific analytics to determine the most suitable instance type(s) and the most opportune time for starting or migrating instances. We employ machine learning techniques to develop an adaptive deployment policy, providing an optimal match between the customer demands and the available cloud service offerings. We provide an experimental study based on extensive set of job executions over a major public cloud infrastructure.