Gurcan Comert

Khalfalla Awedat, Mohamed Abidalrekab, Gurcan Comert et al.

LiDAR-based perception in autonomous systems is constrained by fixed vertical beam resolution and further compromised by beam dropout resulting from environmental occlusions. This paper introduces SuperiorGAT, a graph attention-based framework designed to reconstruct missing elevation information in sparse LiDAR point clouds. By modeling LiDAR scans as beam-aware graphs and incorporating gated residual fusion with feed-forward refinement, SuperiorGAT enables accurate reconstruction without increasing network depth. To evaluate performance, structured beam dropout is simulated by removing every fourth vertical scanning beam. Extensive experiments across diverse KITTI environments, including Person, Road, Campus, and City sequences, demonstrate that SuperiorGAT consistently achieves lower reconstruction error and improved geometric consistency compared to PointNet-based models and deeper GAT baselines. Qualitative X-Z projections further confirm the model's ability to preserve structural integrity with minimal vertical distortion. These results suggest that architectural refinement offers a computationally efficient method for improving LiDAR resolution without requiring additional sensor hardware.

Eric Yocam, Varghese Vaidyan, Gurcan Comert et al.

Large Language Models frequently generate fluent but factually incorrect text. We propose Adaptive Activation Cancellation (AAC), a real-time inference-time framework that treats hallucination-associated neural activations as structured interference within the transformer residual stream, drawing an explicit analogy to classical adaptive noise cancellation from signal processing. The framework identifies Hallucination Nodes (H-Nodes) via layer-wise linear probing and suppresses them using a confidence-weighted forward hook during auto-regressive generation -- requiring no external knowledge, no fine-tuning, and no additional inference passes. Evaluated across OPT-125M, Phi-3-mini, and LLaMA 3-8B on TruthfulQA and HaluEval, the real-time hook is the only intervention that consistently improves downstream accuracy on all three scales. Critically, the method is strictly surgical: WikiText-103 perplexity and MMLU reasoning accuracy are preserved at exactly 0.0% degradation across all three model scales, a property that distinguishes AAC from interventions that trade fluency or general capability for factual improvement. On the LLaMA 3-8B scale, the hook additionally yields positive generation-level gains (MC1 +0.04; MC2 +0.003; Token-F1 +0.003) while achieving probe-space selectivity 5.94x - 3.5x higher than the ITI baseline -- demonstrating that targeted neuron-level suppression can simultaneously improve factual accuracy and preserve model capability.

Eric Yocam, Anthony Rizi, Mahesh Kamepalli et al.

As quantum computing continues to advance, the development of quantum-secure neural networks is crucial to prevent adversarial attacks. This paper proposes three quantum-secure design principles: (1) using post-quantum cryptography, (2) employing quantum-resistant neural network architectures, and (3) ensuring transparent and accountable development and deployment. These principles are supported by various quantum strategies, including quantum data anonymization, quantum-resistant neural networks, and quantum encryption. The paper also identifies open issues in quantum security, privacy, and trust, and recommends exploring adaptive adversarial attacks and auto adversarial attacks as future directions. The proposed design principles and recommendations provide guidance for developing quantum-secure neural networks, ensuring the integrity and reliability of machine learning models in the quantum era.

Reek Majumder, Gurcan Comert, David Werth et al.

The network of services, including delivery, farming, and environmental monitoring, has experienced exponential expansion in the past decade with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Yet, UAVs are not robust enough against cyberattacks, especially on the Controller Area Network (CAN) bus. The CAN bus is a general-purpose vehicle-bus standard to enable microcontrollers and in-vehicle computers to interact, primarily connecting different Electronic Control Units (ECUs). In this study, we focus on solving some of the most critical security weaknesses in UAVs by developing a novel graph-based intrusion detection system (IDS) leveraging the Uncomplicated Application-level Vehicular Communication and Networking (UAVCAN) protocol. First, we decode CAN messages based on UAVCAN protocol specification; second, we present a comprehensive method of transforming tabular UAVCAN messages into graph structures. Lastly, we apply various graph-based machine learning models for detecting cyber-attacks on the CAN bus, including graph convolutional neural networks (GCNNs), graph attention networks (GATs), Graph Sample and Aggregate Networks (GraphSAGE), and graph structure-based transformers. Our findings show that inductive models such as GATs, GraphSAGE, and graph-based transformers can achieve competitive and even better accuracy than transductive models like GCNNs in detecting various types of intrusions, with minimum information on protocol specification, thus providing a generic robust solution for CAN bus security for the UAVs. We also compared our results with baseline single-layer Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and found that all our graph-based models perform better without using any decoded features based on the UAVCAN protocol, highlighting higher detection performance with protocol-independent capability.

Reek Majumder, Mashrur Chowdhury, Sakib Mahmud Khan et al.

Deep learning (DL)-based image classification models are essential for autonomous vehicle (AV) perception modules since incorrect categorization might have severe repercussions. Adversarial attacks are widely studied cyberattacks that can lead DL models to predict inaccurate output, such as incorrectly classified traffic signs by the perception module of an autonomous vehicle. In this study, we create and compare hybrid classical-quantum deep learning (HCQ-DL) models with classical deep learning (C-DL) models to demonstrate robustness against adversarial attacks for perception modules. Before feeding them into the quantum system, we used transfer learning models, alexnet and vgg-16, as feature extractors. We tested over 1000 quantum circuits in our HCQ-DL models for projected gradient descent (PGD), fast gradient sign attack (FGSA), and gradient attack (GA), which are three well-known untargeted adversarial approaches. We evaluated the performance of all models during adversarial attacks and no-attack scenarios. Our HCQ-DL models maintain accuracy above 95\% during a no-attack scenario and above 91\% for GA and FGSA attacks, which is higher than C-DL models. During the PGD attack, our alexnet-based HCQ-DL model maintained an accuracy of 85\% compared to C-DL models that achieved accuracies below 21\%. Our results highlight that the HCQ-DL models provide improved accuracy for traffic sign classification under adversarial settings compared to their classical counterparts.

Methusela Sulle, Judith Mwakalonge, Gurcan Comert et al.

Road fatalities pose significant public safety and health challenges worldwide, with pedestrians being particularly vulnerable in vehicle-pedestrian crashes due to disparities in physical and performance characteristics. This study employs explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to identify key factors contributing to pedestrian fatalities across the five U.S. states with the highest crash rates (2018-2022). It compares them to the five states with the lowest fatality rates. Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), the study applies machine learning techniques-including Decision Trees, Gradient Boosting Trees, Random Forests, and XGBoost-to predict contributing factors to pedestrian fatalities. To address data imbalance, the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) is utilized, while SHapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) values enhance model interpretability. The results indicate that age, alcohol and drug use, location, and environmental conditions are significant predictors of pedestrian fatalities. The XGBoost model outperformed others, achieving a balanced accuracy of 98 %, accuracy of 90 %, precision of 92 %, recall of 90 %, and an F1 score of 91 %. Findings reveal that pedestrian fatalities are more common in mid-block locations and areas with poor visibility, with older adults and substance-impaired individuals at higher risk. These insights can inform policymakers and urban planners in implementing targeted safety measures, such as improved lighting, enhanced pedestrian infrastructure, and stricter traffic law enforcement, to reduce fatalities and improve public safety.

Hannah Musau, Nana Kankam Gyimah, Judith Mwakalonge et al.

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) enhance highway safety by improving environmental perception and reducing human errors. However, misconceptions, trust issues, and knowledge gaps hinder widespread adoption. This study examines driver perceptions, knowledge sources, and usage patterns of ADAS in passenger vehicles. A nationwide survey collected data from a diverse sample of U.S. drivers. Machine learning models predicted ADAS adoption, with SHAP (SHapley Additive Explanations) identifying key influencing factors. Findings indicate that higher trust levels correlate with increased ADAS usage, while concerns about reliability remain a barrier. Specific features, such as Forward Collision Warning and Driver Monitoring Systems, significantly influence adoption likelihood. Demographic factors (age, gender) and driving habits (experience, frequency) also shape ADAS acceptance. Findings emphasize the influence of socioeconomic, demographic, and behavioral factors on ADAS adoption, offering guidance for automakers, policymakers, and safety advocates to improve awareness, trust, and usability.

Richard Abhulimhen, Negash Begashaw, Gurcan Comert et al.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have demonstrated remarkable success across a wide range of tasks, particularly in fields such as image classification. However, DNNs are highly susceptible to adversarial attacks, where subtle perturbations are introduced to input images, leading to erroneous model outputs. In today's digital era, ensuring the security and integrity of images processed by DNNs is of critical importance. One of the most prominent adversarial attack methods is the Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM), which perturbs images in the direction of the loss gradient to deceive the model. This paper presents a novel approach for detecting and filtering FGSM adversarial attacks in image processing tasks. Our proposed method evaluates 10,000 images, each subjected to five different levels of perturbation, characterized by $ε$ values of 0.01, 0.02, 0.05, 0.1, and 0.2. These perturbations are applied in the direction of the loss gradient. We demonstrate that our approach effectively filters adversarially perturbed images, mitigating the impact of FGSM attacks. The method is implemented in Python, and the source code is publicly available on GitHub for reproducibility and further research.

Nana Kankam Gyimah, Judith Mwakalonge, Gurcan Comert et al.

In this paper, we present an automated machine learning (AutoML) approach for network intrusion detection, leveraging a stacked ensemble model developed using the MLJAR AutoML framework. Our methodology combines multiple machine learning algorithms, including LightGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost, to enhance detection accuracy and robustness. By automating model selection, feature engineering, and hyperparameter tuning, our approach reduces the manual overhead typically associated with traditional machine learning methods. Extensive experimentation on the NSL-KDD dataset demonstrates that the stacked ensemble model outperforms individual models, achieving high accuracy and minimizing false positives. Our findings underscore the benefits of using AutoML for network intrusion detection, as the AutoML-driven stacked ensemble achieved the highest performance with 90\% accuracy and an 89\% F1 score, outperforming individual models like Random Forest (78\% accuracy, 78\% F1 score), XGBoost and CatBoost (both 80\% accuracy, 80\% F1 score), and LightGBM (78\% accuracy, 78\% F1 score), providing a more adaptable and efficient solution for network security applications.

Arthur Mukwaya, Nancy Kasamala, Nana Kankam Gyimah et al.

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) mandates that state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) collect reliable Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) data. However, many U.S. DOTs struggle to obtain accurate AADT, especially for unmonitored roads. While continuous count (CC) stations offer accurate traffic volume data, their implementation is expensive and difficult to deploy widely, compelling agencies to rely on short-duration traffic counts. This study proposes a machine learning framework, the first to our knowledge, to identify optimal representative days for conducting short count (SC) data collection to improve AADT prediction accuracy. Using 2022 and 2023 traffic volume data from the state of Texas, we compare two scenarios: an 'optimal day' approach that iteratively selects the most informative days for AADT estimation and a 'no optimal day' baseline reflecting current practice by most DOTs. To align with Texas DOT's traffic monitoring program, continuous count data were utilized to simulate the 24 hour short counts. The actual field short counts were used to enhance feature engineering through using a leave-one-out (LOO) technique to generate unbiased representative daily traffic features across similar road segments. Our proposed methodology outperforms the baseline across the top five days, with the best day (Day 186) achieving lower errors (RMSE: 7,871.15, MAE: 3,645.09, MAPE: 11.95%) and higher R^2 (0.9756) than the baseline (RMSE: 11,185.00, MAE: 5,118.57, MAPE: 14.42%, R^2: 0.9499). This research offers DOTs an alternative to conventional short-duration count practices, improving AADT estimation, supporting Highway Performance Monitoring System compliance, and reducing the operational costs of statewide traffic data collection.

Abyad Enan, Abdullah Al Mamun, Gurcan Comert et al.

Large trucks substantially contribute to work zone-related crashes, primarily due to their large size and blind spots. When approaching a work zone, large trucks often need to merge into an adjacent lane because of lane closures caused by construction activities. This study aims to enhance the safety of large truck merging maneuvers in work zones by evaluating the risk associated with merging conflicts and establishing a decision-making strategy for merging based on this risk assessment. To predict the risk of large trucks merging into a mixed traffic stream within a work zone, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed. For a large truck intending to merge, it is critical that the immediate downstream vehicle in the target lane maintains a minimum safe gap to facilitate a safe merging process. Once a conflict-free merging opportunity is predicted, large trucks are instructed to merge in response to the lane closure. Our LSTM-based conflict prediction method is compared against baseline approaches, which include probabilistic risk-based merging, 50th percentile gap-based merging, and 85th percentile gap-based merging strategies. The results demonstrate that our method yields a lower conflict risk, as indicated by reduced Time Exposed Time-to-Collision (TET) and Time Integrated Time-to-Collision (TIT) values relative to the baseline models. Furthermore, the findings indicate that large trucks that use our method can perform early merging while still in motion, as opposed to coming to a complete stop at the end of the current lane prior to closure, which is commonly observed with the baseline approaches.

Chengen Wang, Alvaro Cardenas, Gurcan Comert et al.

The sharing of large-scale transportation data is beneficial for transportation planning and policymaking. However, it also raises significant security and privacy concerns, as the data may include identifiable personal information, such as individuals' home locations. To address these concerns, synthetic data generation based on real transportation data offers a promising solution that allows privacy protection while potentially preserving data utility. Although there are various synthetic data generation techniques, they are often not tailored to the unique characteristics of transportation data, such as the inherent structure of transportation networks formed by all trips in the datasets. In this paper, we use New York City taxi data as a case study to conduct a systematic evaluation of the performance of widely used tabular data generative models. In addition to traditional metrics such as distribution similarity, coverage, and privacy preservation, we propose a novel graph-based metric tailored specifically for transportation data. This metric evaluates the similarity between real and synthetic transportation networks, providing potentially deeper insights into their structural and functional alignment. We also introduced an improved privacy metric to address the limitations of the commonly-used one. Our experimental results reveal that existing tabular data generative models often fail to perform as consistently as claimed in the literature, particularly when applied to transportation data use cases. Furthermore, our novel graph metric reveals a significant gap between synthetic and real data. This work underscores the potential need to develop generative models specifically tailored to take advantage of the unique characteristics of emerging domains, such as transportation.

Chunheng Zhao, Pierluigi Pisu, Gurcan Comert et al.

Deep learning-based discriminative classifiers, despite their remarkable success, remain vulnerable to adversarial examples that can mislead model predictions. While adversarial training can enhance robustness, it fails to address the intrinsic vulnerability stemming from the opaque nature of these black-box models. We present a deep ensemble model that combines discriminative features with generative models to achieve both high accuracy and adversarial robustness. Our approach integrates a bottom-level pre-trained discriminative network for feature extraction with a top-level generative classification network that models adversarial input distributions through a deep latent variable model. Using variational Bayes, our model achieves superior robustness against white-box adversarial attacks without adversarial training. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 demonstrate our model's superior adversarial robustness. Through evaluations using counterfactual metrics and feature interaction-based metrics, we establish correlations between model interpretability and adversarial robustness. Additionally, preliminary results on Tiny-ImageNet validate our approach's scalability to more complex datasets, offering a practical solution for developing robust image classification models.

Abdullah Al Mamun, Abyad Enan, Debbie A. Indah et al.

This study investigates crash severity risk modeling strategies for work zones involving large vehicles (i.e., trucks, buses, and vans) under crash data imbalance between low-severity (LS) and high-severity (HS) crashes. We utilized crash data involving large vehicles in South Carolina work zones from 2014 to 2018, which included four times more LS crashes than HS crashes. The objective of this study is to evaluate the crash severity prediction performance of various statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models under different feature selection and data balancing techniques. Findings highlight a disparity in LS and HS predictions, with lower accuracy for HS crashes due to class imbalance and feature overlap. Discriminative Mutual Information (DMI) yields the most effective feature set for predicting HS crashes without requiring data balancing, particularly when paired with gradient boosting models and deep neural networks such as CatBoost, NeuralNetTorch, XGBoost, and LightGBM. Data balancing techniques such as NearMiss-1 maximize HS recall when combined with DMI-selected features and certain models such as LightGBM, making them well-suited for HS crash prediction. Conversely, RandomUnderSampler, HS Class Weighting, and RandomOverSampler achieve more balanced performance, which is defined as an equitable trade-off between LS and HS metrics, especially when applied to NeuralNetTorch, NeuralNetFastAI, CatBoost, LightGBM, and Bayesian Mixed Logit (BML) using merged feature sets or models without feature selection. The insights from this study offer safety analysts guidance on selecting models, feature selection, and data balancing techniques aligned with specific safety goals, providing a robust foundation for enhancing work-zone crash severity prediction.

Reek Majumder, Jacquan Pollard, M Sabbir Salek et al.

The environmental impacts of global warming driven by methane (CH4) emissions have catalyzed significant research initiatives in developing novel technologies that enable proactive and rapid detection of CH4. Several data-driven machine learning (ML) models were tested to determine how well they identified fugitive CH4 and its related intensity in the affected areas. Various meteorological characteristics, including wind speed, temperature, pressure, relative humidity, water vapor, and heat flux, were included in the simulation. We used the ensemble learning method to determine the best-performing weighted ensemble ML models built upon several weaker lower-layer ML models to (i) detect the presence of CH4 as a classification problem and (ii) predict the intensity of CH4 as a regression problem.

Gurcan Comert, Negash Begashaw, Negash G. Medhin

This paper presents Bayesian parameter estimation for first order Grey system models' parameters (or sometimes referred to as hyperparameters). There are different forms of first-order Grey System Models. These include $GM(1,1)$, $GM(1,1| \cos(ωt)$, $GM(1,1| \sin(ωt)$, and $GM(1,1| \cos(ωt), \sin(ωt)$. The whitenization equation of these models is a first-order linear differential equation of the form \[ \frac{dx}{dt} + a x = f(t) \] where $a$ is a parameter and $f(t) = b$ in $GM(1,1|)$ , $f(t) = b_1\cos(ωt) + b_2$ in $GM(1,1| cos(ωt)$, $f(t) = b_1\sin(ωt)+b_2$ in $GM(1,1| \sin(ωt)$, $f(t) = b_1\sin(ωt) + b_2\cos(ωt) + b_3$ in $GM(1,1| \cos(ωt), \sin(ωt)$, $f(t) = b x^2$ in Grey Verhulst model (GVM), and where $b, b_1, b_2$, and $b_3$ are parameters. The results from Bayesian estimations are compared to the least square estimated models with fixed $ω$. We found that using rolling Bayesian estimations for GM parameters can allow us to estimate the parameters in all possible forms. Based on the data used for the comparison, the numerical results showed that models with Bayesian parameter estimations are up to 45\% more accurate in mean squared errors.

Zadid Khan, Sakib Mahmud Khan, Jean Michel Tine et al.

The efficiency and reliability of real-time incident detection models directly impact the affected corridors' traffic safety and operational conditions. The recent emergence of cloud-based quantum computing infrastructure and innovations in noisy intermediate-scale quantum devices have revealed a new era of quantum-enhanced algorithms that can be leveraged to improve real-time incident detection accuracy. In this research, a hybrid machine learning model, which includes classical and quantum machine learning (ML) models, is developed to identify incidents using the connected vehicle (CV) data. The incident detection performance of the hybrid model is evaluated against baseline classical ML models. The framework is evaluated using data from a microsimulation tool for different incident scenarios. The results indicate that a hybrid neural network containing a 4-qubit quantum layer outperforms all other baseline models when there is a lack of training data. We have created three datasets; DS-1 with sufficient training data, and DS-2 and DS-3 with insufficient training data. The hybrid model achieves a recall of 98.9%, 98.3%, and 96.6% for DS-1, DS-2, and DS-3, respectively. For DS-2 and DS-3, the average improvement in F2-score (measures model's performance to correctly identify incidents) achieved by the hybrid model is 1.9% and 7.8%, respectively, compared to the classical models. It shows that with insufficient data, which may be common for CVs, the hybrid ML model will perform better than the classical models. With the continuing improvements of quantum computing infrastructure, the quantum ML models could be a promising alternative for CV-related applications when the available data is insufficient.

Reek Majumder, Sakib Mahmud Khan, Fahim Ahmed et al.

Image classification must work for autonomous vehicles (AV) operating on public roads, and actions performed based on image misclassification can have serious consequences. Traffic sign images can be misclassified by an adversarial attack on machine learning models used by AVs for traffic sign recognition. To make classification models resilient against adversarial attacks, we used a hybrid deep-learning model with both the quantum and classical layers. Our goal is to study the hybrid deep-learning architecture for classical-quantum transfer learning models to support the current era of intermediate-scale quantum technology. We have evaluated the impacts of various white box adversarial attacks on these hybrid models. The classical part of hybrid models includes a convolution network from the pre-trained Resnet18 model, which extracts informative features from a high dimensional LISA traffic sign image dataset. The output from the classical processor is processed further through the quantum layer, which is composed of various quantum gates and provides support to various quantum mechanical features like entanglement and superposition. We have tested multiple combinations of quantum circuits to provide better classification accuracy with decreasing training data and found better resiliency for our hybrid classical-quantum deep learning model during attacks compared to the classical-only machine learning models.

Sakib Mahmud Khan, Gurcan Comert, Mashrur Chowdhury

Connected vehicles (CVs), because of the external connectivity with other CVs and connected infrastructure, are vulnerable to cyberattacks that can instantly compromise the safety of the vehicle itself and other connected vehicles and roadway infrastructure. One such cyberattack is the false information attack, where an external attacker injects inaccurate information into the connected vehicles and eventually can cause catastrophic consequences by compromising safety-critical applications like the forward collision warning. The occurrence and target of such attack events can be very dynamic, making real-time and near-real-time detection challenging. Change point models, can be used for real-time anomaly detection caused by the false information attack. In this paper, we have evaluated three change point-based statistical models; Expectation Maximization, Cumulative Summation, and Bayesian Online Change Point Algorithms for cyberattack detection in the CV data. Also, data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models, which can be used to detect known and unknown underlying patterns in the dataset, have the potential of detecting a real-time anomaly in the CV data. We have used six AI models to detect false information attacks and compared the performance for detecting the attacks with our developed change point models. Our study shows that change points models performed better in real-time false information attack detection compared to the performance of the AI models. Change point models having the advantage of no training requirements can be a feasible and computationally efficient alternative to AI models for false information attack detection in connected vehicles.

Gurcan Comert

Dynamic behavior of traffic adversely affect the performance of the prediction models in intelligent transportation applications. This study applies Gaussian processes (GPs) to traffic speed prediction. Such predictions can be used by various transportation applications, such as real-time route guidance, ramp metering, congestion pricing and special events traffic management. One-step predictions with various aggregation levels (1 to 60-minute) are tested for performance of the generated models. Univariate and multivariate GPs are compared with several other linear, nonlinear time series, and Grey system models using loop and Inrix probe vehicle datasets from California, Portland, and Virginia freeways respectively. Based on the test data samples, results are promising that GP models are able to consistently outperform compared models with similar computational times.

Gurcan Comert, Negash Begashaw, Nathan Huynh

In transportation applications such as real-time route guidance, ramp metering, congestion pricing and special events traffic management, accurate short-term traffic flow prediction is needed. For this purpose, this paper proposes several novel \textit{online} Grey system models (GM): GM(1,1$|cos(ωt)$), GM(1,1$|sin(ωt)$, $cos(ωt)$), and GM(1,1$|e^{-at}$,$sin(ωt)$,$cos(ωt)$). To evaluate the performance of the proposed models, they are compared against a set of benchmark models: GM(1,1) model, Grey Verhulst models with and without Fourier error corrections, linear time series model, and nonlinear time series model. The evaluation is performed using loop detector and probe vehicle data from California, Virginia, and Oregon. Among the benchmark models, the error corrected Grey Verhulst model with Fourier outperformed the GM(1,1) model, linear time series, and non-linear time series models. In turn, the three proposed models, GM(1,1$|cos(ωt)$), GM(1,1$|sin(ωt)$,$cos(ωt)$), and GM(1,1$|e^{-at}$,$sin(ωt)$,$cos(ωt)$), outperformed the Grey Verhulst model in prediction by at least $65\%$, $16\%$, and $11\%$, in terms of Root Mean Squared Error, and by $82\%$, $58\%$, and $42\%$, in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error, respectively. It is observed that the proposed Grey system models are more adaptive to location (e.g., perform well for all roadway types) and traffic parameters (e.g., speed, travel time, occupancy, and volume), and they do not require as many data points for training (4 observations are found to be sufficient).

Gurcan Comert, Mashrur Chowdhury, David M. Nicol

This study presents a methodology to quantify vulnerability of cyber attacks and their impacts based on probabilistic graphical models for intelligent transportation systems under connected and autonomous vehicles framework. Cyber attack vulnerabilities from various types and their impacts are calculated for intelligent signals and cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) applications based on the selected performance measures. Numerical examples are given that show impact of vulnerabilities in terms of average intersection queue lengths, number of stops, average speed, and delays. At a signalized network with and without redundant systems, vulnerability can increase average queues and delays by $3\%$ and $15\%$ and $4\%$ and $17\%$, respectively. For CACC application, impact levels reach to $50\%$ delay difference on average when low amount of speed information is perturbed. When significantly different speed characteristics are inserted by an attacker, delay difference increases beyond $100\%$ of normal traffic conditions.

Gurcan Comert, Negash Begashaw

Estimation models from connected vehicles often assume low level parameters such as arrival rates and market penetration rates as known or estimate them in real-time. At low market penetration rates, such parameter estimators produce large errors making estimated queue lengths inefficient for control or operations applications. In order to improve accuracy of low level parameter estimations, this study investigates the impact of connected vehicles information filtering on queue length estimation models. Filters are used as multilevel real-time estimators. Accuracy is tested against known arrival rate and market penetration rate scenarios using microsimulations. To understand the effectiveness for short-term or for dynamic processes, arrival rates, and market penetration rates are changed every 15 minutes. The results show that with Kalman and Particle filters, parameter estimators are able to find the true values within 15 minutes and meet and surpass the accuracy of known parameter scenarios especially for low market penetration rates. In addition, using last known estimated queue lengths when no connected vehicle is present performs better than inputting average estimated values. Moreover, the study shows that both filtering algorithms are suitable for real-time applications that require less than 0.1 second computational time.

Gurcan Comert, Mizanur Rahman, Mhafuzul Islam et al.

Connected vehicle (CV) systems are cognizant of potential cyber attacks because of increasing connectivity between its different components such as vehicles, roadside infrastructure, and traffic management centers. However, it is a challenge to detect security threats in real-time and develop appropriate or effective countermeasures for a CV system because of the dynamic behavior of such attacks, high computational power requirement, and a historical data requirement for training detection models. To address these challenges, statistical models, especially change point models, have potentials for real-time anomaly detections. Thus, the objective of this study is to investigate the efficacy of two change point models, Expectation Maximization (EM) and two forms of Cumulative Summation (CUSUM) algorithms (i.e., typical and adaptive), for real-time V2I cyber attack detection in a CV Environment. To prove the efficacy of these models, we evaluated these two models for three different type of cyber attack, denial of service (DOS), impersonation, and false information, using basic safety messages (BSMs) generated from CVs through simulation. Results from numerical analysis revealed that EM, CUSUM, and adaptive CUSUM could detect these cyber attacks, DOS, impersonation, and false information, with an accuracy of (99%, 100%, 100%), (98%, 10%, 100%), and (100%, 98%, 100%) respectively.

Gurcan Comert, Zadid Khan, Mizanur Rahman et al.

Traffic congestion at a signalized intersection greatly reduces the travel time reliability in urban areas. Adaptive signal control system (ASCS) is the most advanced traffic signal technology that regulates the signal phasing and timings considering the patterns in real-time in order to reduce congestion. Real-time prediction of queue lengths can be used to adjust the phasing and timings for different movements at an intersection with ASCS. The accuracy of the prediction varies based on the factors, such as the stochastic nature of the vehicle arrival rates, time of the day, weather and driver characteristics. In addition, accurate prediction for multilane, undersaturated and saturated traffic scenarios is challenging. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop queue length prediction models for signalized intersections that can be leveraged by ASCS using four variations of Grey systems: (i) the first order single variable Grey model (GM(1,1)); (ii) GM(1,1) with Fourier error corrections; (iii) the Grey Verhulst model (GVM), and (iv) GVM with Fourier error corrections. The efficacy of the GM is that they facilitate fast processing; as these models do not require a large amount of data; as would be needed in artificial intelligence models; and they are able to adapt to stochastic changes, unlike statistical models. We have conducted a case study using queue length data from five intersections with ASCS on a calibrated roadway network in Lexington, South Carolina. GM were compared with linear, nonlinear time series models, and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. Based on our analyses, we found that EGVM reduces the prediction error over closest competing models (i.e., LSTM and time series models) in predicting average and maximum queue lengths by 40% and 42%, respectively, in terms of Root Mean Squared Error, and 51% and 50%, respectively, in terms of Mean Absolute Error.

Mhafuzul Islam, Mizanur Rahman, Mashrur Chowdhury et al.

Although Vehicle-to-Pedestrian (V2P) communication can significantly improve pedestrian safety at a signalized intersection, this safety is hindered as pedestrians often do not carry hand-held devices (e.g., Dedicated short-range communication (DSRC) and 5G enabled cell phone) to communicate with connected vehicles nearby. To overcome this limitation, in this study, traffic cameras at a signalized intersection were used to accurately detect and locate pedestrians via a vision-based deep learning technique to generate safety alerts in real-time about possible conflicts between vehicles and pedestrians. The contribution of this paper lies in the development of a system using a vision-based deep learning model that is able to generate personal safety messages (PSMs) in real-time (every 100 milliseconds). We develop a pedestrian alert safety system (PASS) to generate a safety alert of an imminent pedestrian-vehicle crash using generated PSMs to improve pedestrian safety at a signalized intersection. Our approach estimates the location and velocity of a pedestrian more accurately than existing DSRC-enabled pedestrian hand-held devices. A connected vehicle application, the Pedestrian in Signalized Crosswalk Warning (PSCW), was developed to evaluate the vision-based PASS. Numerical analyses show that our vision-based PASS is able to satisfy the accuracy and latency requirements of pedestrian safety applications in a connected vehicle environment.

Gurcan Comert, Mizanur Rahman, Mhafuzul Islam et al.

Connected vehicle (CV) systems are cognizant of potential cyber attacks because of increasing connectivity between its different components such as vehicles, roadside infrastructure and traffic management centers. However, it is a challenge to detect security threats in real-time and develop appropriate/effective countermeasures for a CV system because of the dynamic behavior of such attacks, high computational power requirement and a historical data requirement for training detection models. To address these challenges, statistical models, especially change point models, have potentials for real-time anomaly detections. Thus, the objective of this study is to investigate the efficacy of two change point models, Expectation Maximization (EM) and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM), for real-time V2I cyber attack detection in a CV Environment. To prove the efficacy of these models, we evaluated these two models for three different type of cyber attack, denial of service (DOS), impersonation, and false information, using basic safety messages (BSMs) generated from CVs through simulation. Results from numerical analysis revealed that EM and CUSUM could detect these cyber attacks, DOS, impersonation, and false information, with an accuracy of 99\%, 100\%, and 98\%, and 100\%, 100\% and 98\%, respectively.

Manveen Kaur, Anjan Rayamajhi, Mizanur Rahman et al.

Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) is a pivotal vehicular application that would allow transportation field to achieve its goals of increased traffic throughput and roadway capacity. This application is of paramount interest to the vehicular technology community with a large body of literature dedicated to research within different aspects of CACC, including but not limited to security with CACC. Of all available literature, the overwhelming focus in on CACC utilizing vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication. In this work, we assert that a qualitative increase in vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) and infrastructure-to-vehicle (I2V) involvement has the potential to add greater value to CACC. In this study, we developed a strategy for detection of a denial-of-service (DoS) attack on a CACC platoon where the system edge in the vehicular network plays a central role in attack detection. The proposed security strategy is substantiated with a simulation-based evaluation using the ns-3 discrete event network simulator. Empirical evidence obtained through simulation-based results illustrate successful detection of the DoS attack at four different levels of attack severity using this security strategy.