Victor W. Chu

Shoujin Wang, Mingze Ni, Wei Liu et al.

Livestock growth prediction is essential for optimising farm management and improving the efficiency and sustainability of livestock production, yet it remains underexplored due to limited large-scale datasets and privacy concerns surrounding farm-level data. Existing biophysical models rely on fixed formulations, while most machine learning approaches are trained on small, isolated datasets, limiting their robustness and generalisability. To address these challenges, we propose LivestockFL, the first federated learning framework specifically designed for livestock growth prediction. LivestockFL enables collaborative model training across distributed farms without sharing raw data, thereby preserving data privacy while alleviating data sparsity, particularly for farms with limited historical records. The framework employs a neural architecture based on a Gated Recurrent Unit combined with a multilayer perceptron to model temporal growth patterns from historical weight records and auxiliary features. We further introduce LivestockPFL, a novel personalised federated learning framework that extends the above federated learning framework with a personalized prediction head trained on each farm's local data, producing farm-specific predictors. Experiments on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed approaches.

Boyuan Zheng, Victor W. Chu, Zhidong Li et al.

Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, presenting unprecedented challenges to the agricultural industry worldwide. In this investigation, we focus on kiwifruit farming in New Zealand. We propose to examine the impacts of climate-induced extreme events, specifically frost, drought, extreme rainfall, and heatwave, on kiwifruit harvest yields. These four events were selected due to their significant impacts on crop productivity and their prevalence as recorded by climate monitoring institutions in the country. We employed Isolation Forest, an unsupervised anomaly detection method, to analyse climate history and recorded extreme events, alongside with kiwifruit yields. Our analysis reveals considerable variability in how different types of extreme event affect kiwifruit yields underscoring notable discrepancies between climatic extremes and individual farm's yield outcomes. Additionally, our study highlights critical limitations of current anomaly detection approaches, particularly in accurately identifying events such as frost. These findings emphasise the need for integrating supplementary features like farm management strategies with climate adaptation practices. Our further investigation will employ ensemble methods that consolidate nearby farms' yield data and regional climate station features to reduce variance, thereby enhancing the accuracy and reliability of extreme event detection and the formulation of response strategies.

Boyuan Zheng, Victor W. Chu

Climate extremes present escalating risks to agriculture intensifying the need for reliable multi-hazard early warning systems (EWS). The situation is evolving due to climate change and hence such systems should have the intelligent to continue to learn from recent climate behaviours. However, traditional single-hazard forecasting methods fall short in capturing complex interactions among concurrent climatic events. To address this deficiency, in this paper, we combine sequential deep learning models and advanced Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques to introduce a multi-hazard forecasting framework for agriculture. In our experiments, we utilize meteorological data from four prominent agricultural regions in the United States (between 2010 and 2023) to validate the predictive accuracy of our framework on multiple severe event types, which are extreme cold, floods, frost, hail, heatwaves, and heavy rainfall, with tailored models for each area. The framework uniquely integrates attention mechanisms with TimeSHAP (a recurrent XAI explainer for time series) to provide comprehensive temporal explanations revealing not only which climatic features are influential but precisely when their impacts occur. Our results demonstrate strong predictive accuracy, particularly with the BiLSTM architecture, and highlight the system's capacity to inform nuanced, proactive risk management strategies. This research significantly advances the explainability and applicability of multi-hazard EWS, fostering interdisciplinary trust and effective decision-making process for climate risk management in the agricultural industry.