Jianfeng Zhang

Renchunzi Xie, Ambroise Odonnat, Vasilii Feofanov et al.

Estimating the test performance of a model, possibly under distribution shift, without having access to the ground-truth labels is a challenging, yet very important problem for the safe deployment of machine learning algorithms in the wild. Existing works mostly rely on information from either the outputs or the extracted features of neural networks to estimate a score that correlates with the ground-truth test accuracy. In this paper, we investigate -- both empirically and theoretically -- how the information provided by the gradients can be predictive of the ground-truth test accuracy even under distribution shifts. More specifically, we use the norm of classification-layer gradients, backpropagated from the cross-entropy loss after only one gradient step over test data. Our intuition is that these gradients should be of higher magnitude when the model generalizes poorly. We provide the theoretical insights behind our approach and the key ingredients that ensure its empirical success. Extensive experiments conducted with various architectures on diverse distribution shifts demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/Renchunzi-Xie/GdScore

Shifeng Xie, Vasilii Feofanov, Marius Alonso et al.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pretraining on large-scale, carefully curated collections of real-world sequences. To allow for a sample-efficient pretraining of TSFMs, we propose CauKer, a novel algorithm designed to generate diverse, causally coherent synthetic time series with realistic trends, seasonality, and nonlinear interactions. CauKer combines Gaussian Process (GP) kernel composition with Structural Causal Models (SCM) to produce data for sample-efficient pretraining of state-of-the-art classification TSFMs having different architectures and following different pretraining approaches. Additionally, our experiments reveal that CauKer-generated datasets exhibit clear scaling laws for both dataset size (10K to 10M samples) and model capacity (1M to 783M parameters), unlike real-world datasets, which display irregular scaling behavior.

Songkang Wen, Vasilii Feofanov, Jianfeng Zhang

Recently, there has been a growing interest in time series foundation models that generalize across different downstream tasks. A key to strong foundation models is a diverse pre-training dataset, which is particularly challenging to collect for time series classification. In this work, we explore the performance of a contrastive-learning-based foundation model as a function of the data used for pre-training. We introduce contrastive accuracy, a new measure to evaluate the quality of the representation space learned by the foundation model. Our experiments reveal the positive correlation between the proposed measure and the accuracy of the model on a collection of downstream tasks. This suggests that the contrastive accuracy can serve as a criterion to search for time series datasets that can enhance the pre-training and improve thereby the foundation model's generalization.

Xiaohua Pan, Weifeng Wu, Peiran Liu et al.

In many practical real-world applications, data missing is a very common phenomenon, making the development of data-driven artificial intelligence theory and technology increasingly difficult. Data completion is an important method for missing data preprocessing. Most existing miss-ing data completion models directly use the known information in the missing data set but ignore the impact of the data label information contained in the data set on the missing data completion model. To this end, this paper proposes a missing data completion model SEGAN based on semi-supervised learning, which mainly includes three important modules: generator, discriminator and classifier. In the SEGAN model, the classifier enables the generator to make more full use of known data and its label information when predicting missing data values. In addition, the SE-GAN model introduces a missing hint matrix to allow the discriminator to more effectively distinguish between known data and data filled by the generator. This paper theoretically proves that the SEGAN model that introduces a classifier and a missing hint matrix can learn the real known data distribution characteristics when reaching Nash equilibrium. Finally, a large number of experiments were conducted in this article, and the experimental results show that com-pared with the current state-of-the-art multivariate data completion method, the performance of the SEGAN model is improved by more than 3%.