Niladri Das

Tommie A. Catanach, Niladri Das

The conventional approach to Bayesian decision-theoretic experiment design involves searching over possible experiments to select a design that maximizes the expected value of a specified utility function. The expectation is over the joint distribution of all unknown variables implied by the statistical model that will be used to analyze the collected data. The utility function defines the objective of the experiment where a common utility function is the information gain. This article introduces an expanded framework for this process, where we go beyond the traditional Expected Information Gain criteria and introduce the Expected General Information Gain which measures robustness to the model discrepancy and Expected Discriminatory Information as a criterion to quantify how well an experiment can detect model discrepancy. The functionality of the framework is showcased through its application to a scenario involving a linearized spring mass damper system and an F-16 model where the model discrepancy is taken into account while doing Bayesian optimal experiment design.

Jed A. Duersch, Thomas A. Catanach, Niladri Das

Balancing model complexity against the information contained in observed data is the central challenge to learning. In order for complexity-efficient models to exist and be discoverable in high dimensions, we require a computational framework that relates a credible notion of complexity to simple parameter representations. Further, this framework must allow excess complexity to be gradually removed via gradient-based optimization. Our n-ary, or n-argument, activation functions fill this gap by approximating belief functions (probabilistic Boolean logic) using logit representations of probability. Just as Boolean logic determines the truth of a consequent claim from relationships among a set of antecedent propositions, probabilistic formulations generalize predictions when antecedents, truth tables, and consequents all retain uncertainty. Our activation functions demonstrate the ability to learn arbitrary logic, such as the binary exclusive disjunction (p xor q) and ternary conditioned disjunction ( c ? p : q ), in a single layer using an activation function of matching or greater arity. Further, we represent belief tables using a basis that directly associates the number of nonzero parameters to the effective arity of the belief function, thus capturing a concrete relationship between logical complexity and efficient parameter representations. This opens optimization approaches to reduce logical complexity by inducing parameter sparsity.