Thijs van de Laar

Wouter W. L. Nuijten, Mykola Lukashchuk, Thijs van de Laar et al.

Active inference casts decision-making as inference, with the Expected Free Energy (EFE) unifying goal-directed and information-seeking behavior. Recent work showed that EFE minimization can be written as Variational Free Energy (VFE) minimization on a generative model augmented with epistemic priors. We prove that the VFE of the augmented model can be rewritten as the VFE of the predictive model plus explicit entropy-correction terms, making the EFE contribution transparent. We then show that proper EFE-based planning requires combining these epistemic corrections with a planning correction that turns marginal inference into policy optimization, yielding a full variational characterization of EFE-based planning. This clarifies which corrections are needed for cross-entropy planning and for full EFE-based planning. The same entropy-corrected formulation leads to a detailed message-passing scheme for EFE-based planning together with simpler ablations. Experiments on three grid-world environments show that the planning correction already helps when observations are decisive, whereas the additional observation-side epistemic corrections matter most when observations are merely suggestive.

Thijs van de Laar, Magnus Koudahl, Bert de Vries

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) describes (biological) agents as minimising a variational Free Energy (FE) with respect to a generative model of their environment. Active Inference (AIF) is a corollary of the FEP that describes how agents explore and exploit their environment by minimising an expected FE objective. In two related papers, we describe a scalable, epistemic approach to synthetic AIF, by message passing on free-form Forney-style Factor Graphs (FFGs). A companion paper (part I) introduces a Constrained FFG (CFFG) notation that visually represents (generalised) FE objectives for AIF. The current paper (part II) derives message passing algorithms that minimise (generalised) FE objectives on a CFFG by variational calculus. A comparison between simulated Bethe and generalised FE agents illustrates how the message passing approach to synthetic AIF induces epistemic behaviour on a T-maze navigation task. Extension of the T-maze simulation to 1) learning goal statistics, and 2) a multi-agent bargaining setting, illustrate how this approach encourages reuse of nodes and updates in alternative settings. With a full message passing account of synthetic AIF agents, it becomes possible to derive and reuse message updates across models and move closer to industrial applications of synthetic AIF.

Magnus Koudahl, Thijs van de Laar, Bert de Vries

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) is a theoretical framework for describing how (intelligent) systems self-organise into coherent, stable structures by minimising a free energy functional. Active Inference (AIF) is a corollary of the FEP that specifically details how systems that are able to plan for the future (agents) function by minimising particular free energy functionals that incorporate information seeking components. This paper is the first in a series of two where we derive a synthetic version of AIF on free form factor graphs. The present paper focuses on deriving a local version of the free energy functionals used for AIF. This enables us to construct a version of AIF which applies to arbitrary graphical models and interfaces with prior work on message passing algorithms. The resulting messages are derived in our companion paper. We also identify a gap in the graphical notation used for factor graphs. While factor graphs are great at expressing a generative model, they have so far been unable to specify the full optimisation problem including constraints. To solve this problem we develop Constrained Forney-style Factor Graph (CFFG) notation which permits a fully graphical description of variational inference objectives. We then proceed to show how CFFG's can be used to reconstruct prior algorithms for AIF as well as derive new ones. The latter is demonstrated by deriving an algorithm that permits direct policy inference for AIF agents, circumventing a long standing scaling issue that has so far hindered the application of AIF in industrial settings. We demonstrate our algorithm on the classic T-maze task and show that it reproduces the information seeking behaviour that is a hallmark feature of AIF.

Bart van Erp, Wouter W. L. Nuijten, Thijs van de Laar et al.

Bayesian state and parameter estimation have been automated effectively in a variety of probabilistic programming languages. The process of model comparison on the other hand, which still requires error-prone and time-consuming manual derivations, is often overlooked despite its importance. This paper efficiently automates Bayesian model averaging, selection, and combination by message passing on a Forney-style factor graph with a custom mixture node. Parameter and state inference, and model comparison can then be executed simultaneously using message passing with scale factors. This approach shortens the model design cycle and allows for the straightforward extension to hierarchical and temporal model priors to accommodate for modeling complicated time-varying processes.

Marco Hidalgo-Araya, Raphaël Trésor, Bart Van Erp et al.

Speech enhancement in hearing aids remains a difficult task in nonstationary acoustic environments, mainly because current signal processing algorithms rely on fixed, manually tuned parameters that cannot adapt in situ to different users or listening contexts. This paper introduces a unified modular framework that formulates signal processing, learning, and personalization as Bayesian inference with explicit uncertainty tracking. The proposed framework replaces ad hoc algorithm design with a single probabilistic generative model that continuously adapts to changing acoustic conditions and user preferences. It extends spectral subtraction with principled mechanisms for in-situ personalization and adaptation to acoustic context. The system is implemented as an interconnected probabilistic state-space model, and inference is performed via variational message passing in the \texttt{RxInfer.jl} probabilistic programming environment, enabling real-time Bayesian processing under hearing-aid constraints. Proof-of-concept experiments on the \emph{VoiceBank+DEMAND} corpus show competitive speech quality and noise reduction with 85 effective parameters. The framework provides an interpretable, data-efficient foundation for uncertainty-aware, adaptive hearing-aid processing and points toward devices that learn continuously through probabilistic inference.

Marco Cox, Thijs van de Laar, Bert de Vries

The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific probabilistic programming paradigm, namely message passing in Forney-style factor graphs (FFGs), in the context of automated design of efficient Bayesian signal processing algorithms. To this end, we developed "ForneyLab" (https://github.com/biaslab/ForneyLab.jl) as a Julia toolbox for message passing-based inference in FFGs. We show by example how ForneyLab enables automatic derivation of Bayesian signal processing algorithms, including algorithms for parameter estimation and model comparison. Crucially, due to the modular makeup of the FFG framework, both the model specification and inference methods are readily extensible in ForneyLab. In order to test this framework, we compared variational message passing as implemented by ForneyLab with automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and Monte Carlo methods as implemented by state-of-the-art tools "Edward" and "Stan". In terms of performance, extensibility and stability issues, ForneyLab appears to enjoy an edge relative to its competitors for automated inference in state-space models.

Bert de Vries, Wouter Nuijten, Thijs van de Laar et al.

We address the problem of planning under uncertainty, where an agent must choose actions that not only achieve desired outcomes but also reduce uncertainty. Traditional methods often treat exploration and exploitation as separate objectives, lacking a unified inferential foundation. Active inference, grounded in the Free Energy Principle, provides such a foundation by minimizing Expected Free Energy (EFE), a cost function that combines utility with epistemic drives, such as ambiguity resolution and novelty seeking. However, the computational burden of EFE minimization had remained a significant obstacle to its scalability. In this paper, we show that EFE-based planning arises naturally from minimizing a variational free energy functional on a generative model augmented with preference and epistemic priors. This result reinforces theoretical consistency with the Free Energy Principle by casting planning under uncertainty itself as a form of variational inference. Our formulation yields policies that jointly support goal achievement and information gain, while incorporating a complexity term that accounts for bounded computational resources. This unifying framework connects and extends existing methods, enabling scalable, resource-aware implementations of active inference agents.

Wouter W. L. Nuijten, Mykola Lukashchuk, Thijs van de Laar et al.

We present a message passing approach to Expected Free Energy (EFE) minimization on factor graphs, based on the theory introduced in arXiv:2504.14898. By reformulating EFE minimization as Variational Free Energy minimization with epistemic priors, we transform a combinatorial search problem into a tractable inference problem solvable through standard variational techniques. Applying our message passing method to factorized state-space models enables efficient policy inference. We evaluate our method on environments with epistemic uncertainty: a stochastic gridworld and a partially observable Minigrid task. Agents using our approach consistently outperform conventional KL-control agents on these tasks, showing more robust planning and efficient exploration under uncertainty. In the stochastic gridworld environment, EFE-minimizing agents avoid risky paths, while in the partially observable minigrid setting, they conduct more systematic information-seeking. This approach bridges active inference theory with practical implementations, providing empirical evidence for the efficiency of epistemic priors in artificial agents.

Thijs van de Laar, Magnus Koudahl, Bart van Erp et al.

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) postulates that biological agents perceive and interact with their environment in order to minimize a Variational Free Energy (VFE) with respect to a generative model of their environment. The inference of a policy (future control sequence) according to the FEP is known as Active Inference (AIF). The AIF literature describes multiple VFE objectives for policy planning that lead to epistemic (information-seeking) behavior. However, most objectives have limited modeling flexibility. This paper approaches epistemic behavior from a constrained Bethe Free Energy (CBFE) perspective. Crucially, variational optimization of the CBFE can be expressed in terms of message passing on free-form generative models. The key intuition behind the CBFE is that we impose a point-mass constraint on predicted outcomes, which explicitly encodes the assumption that the agent will make observations in the future. We interpret the CBFE objective in terms of its constituent behavioral drives. We then illustrate resulting behavior of the CBFE by planning and interacting with a simulated T-maze environment. Simulations for the T-maze task illustrate how the CBFE agent exhibits an epistemic drive, and actively plans ahead to account for the impact of predicted outcomes. Compared to an EFE agent, the CBFE agent incurs expected reward in significantly more environmental scenarios. We conclude that CBFE optimization by message passing suggests a general mechanism for epistemic-aware AIF in free-form generative models.

Thijs van de Laar, Ismail Senoz, Ayça Özçelikkale et al.

Active Inference (ActInf) is an emerging theory that explains perception and action in biological agents, in terms of minimizing a free energy bound on Bayesian surprise. Goal-directed behavior is elicited by introducing prior beliefs on the underlying generative model. In contrast to prior beliefs, which constrain all realizations of a random variable, we propose an alternative approach through chance constraints, which allow for a (typically small) probability of constraint violation, and demonstrate how such constraints can be used as intrinsic drivers for goal-directed behavior in ActInf. We illustrate how chance-constrained ActInf weights all imposed (prior) constraints on the generative model, allowing e.g., for a trade-off between robust control and empirical chance constraint violation. Secondly, we interpret the proposed solution within a message passing framework. Interestingly, the message passing interpretation is not only relevant to the context of ActInf, but also provides a general purpose approach that can account for chance constraints on graphical models. The chance constraint message updates can then be readily combined with other pre-derived message update rules, without the need for custom derivations. The proposed chance-constrained message passing framework thus accelerates the search for workable models in general, and can be used to complement message-passing formulations on generative neural models.

Thijs van de Laar, Bert de Vries

Hearing Aid (HA) algorithms need to be tuned ("fitted") to match the impairment of each specific patient. The lack of a fundamental HA fitting theory is a strong contributing factor to an unsatisfying sound experience for about 20% of hearing aid patients. This paper proposes a probabilistic modeling approach to the design of HA algorithms. The proposed method relies on a generative probabilistic model for the hearing loss problem and provides for automated inference of the corresponding (1) signal processing algorithm, (2) the fitting solution as well as a principled (3) performance evaluation metric. All three tasks are realized as message passing algorithms in a factor graph representation of the generative model, which in principle allows for fast implementation on hearing aid or mobile device hardware. The methods are theoretically worked out and simulated with a custom-built factor graph toolbox for a specific hearing loss model.