Quinten Meertens

Kevin Kloos, Julian D. Karch, Quinten A. Meertens et al.

A quantifier is a supervised machine learning algorithm, focused on estimating the class prevalence in a dataset rather than labeling its individual observations. We introduce Continuous Sweep, a new parametric binary quantifier inspired by the well-performing Median Sweep, which is an ensemble method based on Adjusted Count estimators. We modified two aspects of Median Sweep: 1) using parametric class distributions instead of empirical distributions for the true and false positive rate; 2) using the mean instead of the median of a set of Adjusted Count estimates. These two modifications allow for a theoretical analysis of the bias and variance of Continuous Sweep. Furthermore, the expressions of bias and variance can be used to define optimal decision boundaries of the set of Adjusted count estimates to be used in the ensemble. We show in three simulation studies that Continuous Sweep outperforms the quantifiers in the group Classify, Count, and Correct, including Median Sweep, and is competitive with the two best quantifiers from the group Distribution Matchers. Also an empirical data set is analysed with these quantifiers showing similar performances.

Q. A. Meertens, C. G. H. Diks, H. J. van den Herik et al.

In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for highly accurate classification algorithms, in particular when dealing with class-imbalanced data. To correct this bias, the algorithm's classification error rates have to be estimated. In this estimation, two issues arise when applying existing bias correction methods. First, inaccuracies in estimating classification error rates have to be taken into account. Second, impermissible estimates, such as a negative estimate for a positive value, have to be dismissed. We show that both issues are relevant in applications where the true labels are known only for a small set of data points. We propose a novel bias correction method using Bayesian inference. The novelty of our method is that it imposes constraints on the model parameters. We show that our method solves the problem of biased classification-based aggregates as well as the two issues above, in the general setting of multi-class classification. In the empirical evaluation, using a binary classifier on a real-world dataset of company tax returns, we show that our method outperforms existing methods in terms of mean squared error.