Katsuhiro Nishinari

Yuki Oyama, Daisuke Fukuda, Naoto Imura et al.

Many e-commerce marketplaces offer their users fast delivery options for free to meet the increasing needs of users, imposing an excessive burden on city logistics. Therefore, understanding e-commerce users' preference for delivery options is a key to designing logistics policies. To this end, this study designs a stated choice survey in which respondents are faced with choice tasks among different delivery options and time slots, which was completed by 4,062 users from the three major metropolitan areas in Japan. To analyze the data, mixed logit models capturing taste heterogeneity as well as flexible substitution patterns have been estimated. The model estimation results indicate that delivery attributes including fee, time, and time slot size are significant determinants of the delivery option choices. Associations between users' preferences and socio-demographic characteristics, such as age, gender, teleworking frequency and the presence of a delivery box, were also suggested. Moreover, we analyzed two willingness-to-pay measures for delivery, namely, the value of delivery time savings (VODT) and the value of time slot shortening (VOTS), and applied a non-semiparametric approach to estimate their distributions in a data-oriented manner. Although VODT has a large heterogeneity among respondents, the estimated median VODT is 25.6 JPY/day, implying that more than half of the respondents would wait an additional day if the delivery fee were increased by only 26 JPY, that is, they do not necessarily need a fast delivery option but often request it when cheap or almost free. Moreover, VOTS was found to be low, distributed with the median of 5.0 JPY/hour; that is, users do not highly value the reduction in time slot size in monetary terms. These findings on e-commerce users' preferences can help in designing levels of service for last-mile delivery to significantly improve its efficiency.

Akihiro Fujita, Sasinee Pruekprasert, Katsuhiro Nishinari et al.

This paper explores scalable coordination strategies for urban air mobility (UAM) corridors by comparing two representative approaches. The first, inspired by visual flight rules (VFR), is a local coordination strategy relying on spatial information available to each vehicle. The second, conceptually aligned with digital flight rules (DFR), is a global coordination strategy based on shared estimated times of arrival (ETAs) at constrained waypoints (CWPs). To support this comparison, we introduce a lightweight disturbance-avoidance mechanism that enables vehicles to adjust their ETAs in response to forecasted disruptions using shared information. We evaluate these approaches through numerical simulations under varying disturbance levels, comparing the locally reactive VFR-style scheme with the globally coordinated DFR-style scheme. Results show that VFR achieves high throughput in low-traffic scenarios but becomes increasingly prone to collisions at higher traffic densities unless conservative separation is enforced, which reduces traffic efficiency. In contrast, DFR maintains more consistent safety performance and traffic efficiency, even under moderate ETA update propagation delays. These findings highlight the advantages of DFR-style global coordination in managing high-density air traffic control (ATC) operations within UAM corridors.

Sasinee Pruekprasert, Shinji Nakadai, Katsuhiro Nishinari

This paper presents a safety-assured arrival-scheduling framework for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) corridor operations. We propose an analytical method to compute a sufficient ETA gap at Constrained Waypoints (CWPs) that guarantees longitudinal separation along sequential corridor sections with heterogeneous speed limits. The resulting ETA-gap condition depends on section-specific speed bounds and the required separation distance, providing an efficiently computable rule suitable for integration into future digital ETA-scheduling and air traffic management systems. We show that the computed ETA gap ensures safe separation across all corridor sections under prescribed section travel times and speed limits. Numerical simulations for a decreasing-speed corridor confirm that vehicles coordinated with the proposed mechanism adjust their speeds to maintain the required spacing, avoid potential collisions, and support improved traffic flow compared with unscheduled operations.

Takahiro Ezaki, Naoto Imura, Katsuhiro Nishinari

Demand forecasting based on empirical data is a viable approach for optimizing a supply chain. However, in this approach, a model constructed from past data occasionally becomes outdated due to long-term changes in the environment, in which case the model should be updated (i.e., retrained) using the latest data. In this study, we examine the effects of updating models in a supply chain using a minimal setting. We demonstrate that when each party in the supply chain has its own forecasting model, uncoordinated model retraining causes the bullwhip effect even if a very simple replenishment policy is applied. Our results also indicate that sharing the forecasting model among the parties involved significantly reduces the bullwhip effect.

Koki Nagao, Daichi Yanagisawa, Katsuhiro Nishinari

We conducted a simple experiment in which one pedestrian passed through a crowded area and measured the body-rotational angular velocity with commercial tablets. Then, we developed a new method for predicting crowd density by applying the continuous wavelet transform and machine learning to the data obtained in the experiment. We found that the accuracy of prediction using angular velocity data was as high as that using raw velocity data. Therefore, we concluded that angular velocity has relationship with crowd density and we could estimate crowd density by angular velocity. Our research will contribute to management of safety and comfort of pedestrians by developing an easy way to measure crowd density.