Evgenii Genov

Julian Ruddick, Glenn Ceusters, Gilles Van Kriekinge et al.

Recent advancements in machine learning based energy management approaches, specifically reinforcement learning with a safety layer (OptLayerPolicy) and a metaheuristic algorithm generating a decision tree control policy (TreeC), have shown promise. However, their effectiveness has only been demonstrated in computer simulations. This paper presents the real-world validation of these methods, comparing against model predictive control and simple rule-based control benchmark. The experiments were conducted on the electrical installation of 4 reproductions of residential houses, which all have their own battery, photovoltaic and dynamic load system emulating a non-controllable electrical load and a controllable electric vehicle charger. The results show that the simple rules, TreeC, and model predictive control-based methods achieved similar costs, with a difference of only 0.6%. The reinforcement learning based method, still in its training phase, obtained a cost 25.5\% higher to the other methods. Additional simulations show that the costs can be further reduced by using a more representative training dataset for TreeC and addressing errors in the model predictive control implementation caused by its reliance on accurate data from various sources. The OptLayerPolicy safety layer allows safe online training of a reinforcement learning agent in the real-world, given an accurate constraint function formulation. The proposed safety layer method remains error-prone, nonetheless, it is found beneficial for all investigated methods. The TreeC method, which does require building a realistic simulation for training, exhibits the safest operational performance, exceeding the grid limit by only 27.1 Wh compared to 593.9 Wh for reinforcement learning.

Christoph Bergmeir, Frits de Nijs, Evgenii Genov et al.

Predict+Optimize frameworks integrate forecasting and optimization to address real-world challenges such as renewable energy scheduling, where variability and uncertainty are critical factors. This paper benchmarks solutions from the IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling, focusing on forecasting renewable production and demand and optimizing energy cost. The competition attracted 49 participants in total. The top-ranked method employed stochastic optimization using LightGBM ensembles, and achieved at least a 2% reduction in energy costs compared to deterministic approaches, demonstrating that the most accurate point forecast does not necessarily guarantee the best performance in downstream optimization. The published data and problem setting establish a benchmark for further research into integrated forecasting-optimization methods for energy systems, highlighting the importance of considering forecast uncertainty in optimization models to achieve cost-effective and reliable energy management. The novelty of this work lies in its comprehensive evaluation of Predict+Optimize methodologies applied to a real-world renewable energy scheduling problem, providing insights into the scalability, generalizability, and effectiveness of the proposed solutions. Potential applications extend beyond energy systems to any domain requiring integrated forecasting and optimization, such as supply chain management, transportation planning, and financial portfolio optimization.

Evgenii Genov, Julian Ruddick, Christoph Bergmeir et al.

This study investigates the integration of forecasting and optimization in energy management systems, with a focus on the role of switching costs -- penalties incurred from frequent operational adjustments. We develop a theoretical and empirical framework to examine how forecast accuracy and stability interact with switching costs in online decision-making settings. Our analysis spans both deterministic and stochastic optimization approaches, using point and probabilistic forecasts. A novel metric for measuring temporal consistency in probabilistic forecasts is introduced, and the framework is validated in a real-world battery scheduling case based on the CityLearn 2022 challenge. Results show that switching costs significantly alter the trade-off between forecast accuracy and stability, and that more stable forecasts can reduce the performance loss due to switching. Contrary to common practice, the findings suggest that, under non-negligible switching costs, longer commitment periods may lead to better overall outcomes. These insights have practical implications for the design of intelligent, forecast-aware energy management systems.

Julian Ruddick, Evgenii Genov, Luis Ramirez Camargo et al.

This paper presents a solution to a predict then optimise problem which goal is to reduce the electricity cost of a university campus. The proposed methodology combines a multi-dimensional time series forecast and a novel approach to large-scale optimization. Gradient-boosting method is applied to forecast both generation and consumption time-series of the Monash university campus for the month of November 2020. For the consumption forecasts we employ log transformation to model trend and stabilize variance. Additional seasonality and trend features are added to the model inputs when applicable. The forecasts obtained are used as the base load for the schedule optimisation of university activities and battery usage. The goal of the optimisation is to minimize the electricity cost consisting of the price of electricity and the peak electricity tariff both altered by the load from class activities and battery use as well as the penalty of not scheduling some optional activities. The schedule of the class activities is obtained through evolutionary optimisation using the covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy and the genetic algorithm. This schedule is then improved through local search by testing possible times for each activity one-by-one. The battery schedule is formulated as a mixed-integer programming problem and solved by the Gurobi solver. This method obtains the second lowest cost when evaluated against 6 other methods presented at an IEEE competition that all used mixed-integer programming and the Gurobi solver to schedule both the activities and the battery use. The code and data used for the paper are publicly available.