Tommaso Dorigo

Luca Masserano, Tommaso Dorigo, Rafael Izbicki et al.

Prediction algorithms, such as deep neural networks (DNNs), are used in many domain sciences to directly estimate internal parameters of interest in simulator-based models, especially in settings where the observations include images or complex high-dimensional data. In parallel, modern neural density estimators, such as normalizing flows, are becoming increasingly popular for uncertainty quantification, especially when both parameters and observations are high-dimensional. However, parameter inference is an inverse problem and not a prediction task; thus, an open challenge is to construct conditionally valid and precise confidence regions, with a guaranteed probability of covering the true parameters of the data-generating process, no matter what the (unknown) parameter values are, and without relying on large-sample theory. Many simulator-based inference (SBI) methods are indeed known to produce biased or overly confident parameter regions, yielding misleading uncertainty estimates. This paper presents WALDO, a novel method to construct confidence regions with finite-sample conditional validity by leveraging prediction algorithms or posterior estimators that are currently widely adopted in SBI. WALDO reframes the well-known Wald test statistic, and uses a computationally efficient regression-based machinery for classical Neyman inversion of hypothesis tests. We apply our method to a recent high-energy physics problem, where prediction with DNNs has previously led to estimates with prediction bias. We also illustrate how our approach can correct overly confident posterior regions computed with normalizing flows.

James Carzon, Luca Masserano, Joshua D. Ingram et al.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) excels at producing complex data structures (text, images, videos) by learning patterns from training examples. Across scientific disciplines, researchers are now applying generative models to ``inverse problems'' to infer hidden parameters from observed data. While these methods can handle intractable models and large-scale studies, they can also produce biased or overconfident conclusions. We present a solution with Frequentist-Bayes (FreB), a mathematically rigorous protocol that reshapes AI-generated probability distributions into confidence regions that consistently include true parameters with the expected probability, while achieving minimum size when training and target data align. We demonstrate FreB's effectiveness by tackling diverse case studies in the physical sciences: identifying unknown sources under dataset shift, reconciling competing theoretical models, and mitigating selection bias and systematics in observational studies. By providing validity guarantees with interpretable diagnostics, FreB enables trustworthy scientific inference across fields where direct likelihood evaluation remains impossible or prohibitively expensive.

Enrico Lupi, Abhishek, Max Aehle et al.

We simulate hadrons impinging on a homogeneous lead-tungstate (PbWO4) calorimeter to investigate how the resulting light yield and its temporal structure, as detected by an array of light-sensitive sensors, can be processed by a neuromorphic computing system. Our model encodes temporal photon distributions as spike trains and employs a fully connected spiking neural network to estimate the total deposited energy, as well as the position and spatial distribution of the light emissions within the sensitive material. The extracted primitives offer valuable topological information about the shower development in the material, achieved without requiring a segmentation of the active medium. A potential nanophotonic implementation using III-V semiconductor nanowires is discussed. It can be both fast and energy efficient.

Emanuele Coradin, Fabio Cufino, Muhammad Awais et al.

We study the application of a neural network architecture for identifying charged particle trajectories via unsupervised learning of delays and synaptic weights using a spike-time-dependent plasticity rule. In the considered model, the neurons receive time-encoded information on the position of particle hits in a tracking detector for a particle collider, modeled according to the geometry of the Compact Muon Solenoid Phase II detector. We show how a spiking neural network is capable of successfully identifying in a completely unsupervised way the signal left by charged particles in the presence of conspicuous noise from accidental or combinatorial hits. These results open the way to applications of neuromorphic computing to particle tracking, motivating further studies into its potential for real-time, low-power particle tracking in future high-energy physics experiments.

Sascha Caron, Andreas Ipp, Gert Aarts et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming scientific research, with deep learning methods playing a central role in data analysis, simulations, and signal detection across particle, nuclear, and astroparticle physics. Within the JENA communities-ECFA, NuPECC, and APPEC-and as part of the EuCAIF initiative, AI integration is advancing steadily. However, broader adoption remains constrained by challenges such as limited computational resources, a lack of expertise, and difficulties in transitioning from research and development (R&D) to production. This white paper provides a strategic roadmap, informed by a community survey, to address these barriers. It outlines critical infrastructure requirements, prioritizes training initiatives, and proposes funding strategies to scale AI capabilities across fundamental physics over the next five years.

Luca Masserano, Alex Shen, Michele Doro et al.

An open scientific challenge is how to classify events with reliable measures of uncertainty, when we have a mechanistic model of the data-generating process but the distribution over both labels and latent nuisance parameters is different between train and target data. We refer to this type of distributional shift as generalized label shift (GLS). Direct classification using observed data $\mathbf{X}$ as covariates leads to biased predictions and invalid uncertainty estimates of labels $Y$. We overcome these biases by proposing a new method for robust uncertainty quantification that casts classification as a hypothesis testing problem under nuisance parameters. The key idea is to estimate the classifier's receiver operating characteristic (ROC) across the entire nuisance parameter space, which allows us to devise cutoffs that are invariant under GLS. Our method effectively endows a pre-trained classifier with domain adaptation capabilities and returns valid prediction sets while maintaining high power. We demonstrate its performance on two challenging scientific problems in biology and astroparticle physics with data from realistic mechanistic models.

Anna Stakia, Tommaso Dorigo, Giovanni Banelli et al.

Between the years 2015 and 2019, members of the Horizon 2020-funded Innovative Training Network named "AMVA4NewPhysics" studied the customization and application of advanced multivariate analysis methods and statistical learning tools to high-energy physics problems, as well as developed entirely new ones. Many of those methods were successfully used to improve the sensitivity of data analyses performed by the ATLAS and CMS experiments at the CERN Large Hadron Collider; several others, still in the testing phase, promise to further improve the precision of measurements of fundamental physics parameters and the reach of searches for new phenomena. In this paper, the most relevant new tools, among those studied and developed, are presented along with the evaluation of their performances.

Tommaso Dorigo, Pablo de Castro

In this work we discuss the impact of nuisance parameters on the effectiveness of machine learning in high-energy physics problems, and provide a review of techniques that allow to include their effect and reduce their impact in the search for optimal selection criteria and variable transformations. The introduction of nuisance parameters complicates the supervised learning task and its correspondence with the data analysis goal, due to their contribution degrading the model performances in real data, and the necessary addition of uncertainties in the resulting statistical inference. The approaches discussed include nuisance-parameterized models, modified or adversary losses, semi-supervised learning approaches, and inference-aware techniques.

Pablo de Castro, Tommaso Dorigo

Complex computer simulations are commonly required for accurate data modelling in many scientific disciplines, making statistical inference challenging due to the intractability of the likelihood evaluation for the observed data. Furthermore, sometimes one is interested on inference drawn over a subset of the generative model parameters while taking into account model uncertainty or misspecification on the remaining nuisance parameters. In this work, we show how non-linear summary statistics can be constructed by minimising inference-motivated losses via stochastic gradient descent such they provided the smallest uncertainty for the parameters of interest. As a use case, the problem of confidence interval estimation for the mixture coefficient in a multi-dimensional two-component mixture model (i.e. signal vs background) is considered, where the proposed technique clearly outperforms summary statistics based on probabilistic classification, which are a commonly used alternative but do not account for the presence of nuisance parameters.

Pietro Vischia, Tommaso Dorigo

For data sets populated by a very well modeled process and by another process of unknown probability density function (PDF), a desired feature when manipulating the fraction of the unknown process (either for enhancing it or suppressing it) consists in avoiding to modify the kinematic distributions of the well modeled one. A bootstrap technique is used to identify sub-samples rich in the well modeled process, and classify each event according to the frequency of it being part of such sub-samples. Comparisons with general MVA algorithms will be shown, as well as a study of the asymptotic properties of the method, making use of a public domain data set that models a typical search for new physics as performed at hadronic colliders such as the Large Hadron Collider (LHC).