Alexandre Belloni

Alexandre Belloni, Fei Fang, Alexander Volfovsky

Estimating causal effects has become an integral part of most applied fields. In this work we consider the violation of the classical no-interference assumption with units connected by a network. For tractability, we consider a known network that describes how interference may spread. Unlike previous work the radius (and intensity) of the interference experienced by a unit is unknown and can depend on different (local) sub-networks and the assigned treatments. We study estimators for the average direct treatment effect on the treated in such a setting under additive treatment effects. We establish rates of convergence and distributional results. The proposed estimators considers all possible radii for each (local) treatment assignment pattern. In contrast to previous work, we approximate the relevant network interference patterns that lead to good estimates of the interference. To handle feature engineering, a key innovation is to propose the use of synthetic treatments to decouple the dependence. We provide simulations, an empirical illustration and insights for the general study of interference.

Baris Ata, Alexandre Belloni, Ozan Candogan

We consider a network of agents. Associated with each agent are her covariate and outcome. Agents influence each other's outcomes according to a certain connection/influence structure. A subset of the agents participate on a platform, and hence, are observable to it. The rest are not observable to the platform and are called the latent agents. The platform does not know the influence structure of the observable or the latent parts of the network. It only observes the data on past covariates and decisions of the observable agents. Observable agents influence each other both directly and indirectly through the influence they exert on the latent agents. We investigate how the platform can estimate the dependence of the observable agents' outcomes on their covariates, taking the latent agents into account. First, we show that this relationship can be succinctly captured by a matrix and provide an algorithm for estimating it under a suitable approximate sparsity condition using historical data of covariates and outcomes for the observable agents. We also obtain convergence rates for the proposed estimator despite the high dimensionality that allows more agents than observations. Second, we show that the approximate sparsity condition holds under the standard conditions used in the literature. Hence, our results apply to a large class of networks. Finally, we apply our results to two practical settings: targeted advertising and promotional pricing. We show that by using the available historical data with our estimator, it is possible to obtain asymptotically optimal advertising/pricing decisions, despite the presence of latent agents.

Alexandre Belloni, Tengyuan Liang, Hariharan Narayanan et al.

We consider the problem of optimizing an approximately convex function over a bounded convex set in $\mathbb{R}^n$ using only function evaluations. The problem is reduced to sampling from an \emph{approximately} log-concave distribution using the Hit-and-Run method, which is shown to have the same $\mathcal{O}^*$ complexity as sampling from log-concave distributions. In addition to extend the analysis for log-concave distributions to approximate log-concave distributions, the implementation of the 1-dimensional sampler of the Hit-and-Run walk requires new methods and analysis. The algorithm then is based on simulated annealing which does not relies on first order conditions which makes it essentially immune to local minima. We then apply the method to different motivating problems. In the context of zeroth order stochastic convex optimization, the proposed method produces an $ε$-minimizer after $\mathcal{O}^*(n^{7.5}ε^{-2})$ noisy function evaluations by inducing a $\mathcal{O}(ε/n)$-approximately log concave distribution. We also consider in detail the case when the "amount of non-convexity" decays towards the optimum of the function. Other applications of the method discussed in this work include private computation of empirical risk minimizers, two-stage stochastic programming, and approximate dynamic programming for online learning.

Alexandre Belloni, Mathieu Rosenbaum, Alexandre B. Tsybakov

Several new estimation methods have been recently proposed for the linear regression model with observation error in the design. Different assumptions on the data generating process have motivated different estimators and analysis. In particular, the literature considered (1) observation errors in the design uniformly bounded by some $\bar δ$, and (2) zero mean independent observation errors. Under the first assumption, the rates of convergence of the proposed estimators depend explicitly on $\bar δ$, while the second assumption has been applied when an estimator for the second moment of the observational error is available. This work proposes and studies two new estimators which, compared to other procedures for regression models with errors in the design, exploit an additional $l_{\infty}$-norm regularization. The first estimator is applicable when both (1) and (2) hold but does not require an estimator for the second moment of the observational error. The second estimator is applicable under (2) and requires an estimator for the second moment of the observation error. Importantly, we impose no assumption on the accuracy of this pilot estimator, in contrast to the previously known procedures. As the recent proposals, we allow the number of covariates to be much larger than the sample size. We establish the rates of convergence of the estimators and compare them with the bounds obtained for related estimators in the literature. These comparisons show interesting insights on the interplay of the assumptions and the achievable rates of convergence.

Alexandre Belloni, Victor Chernozhukov, Ivan Fernández-Val et al.

In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data-rich environments. We can handle very many control variables, endogenous receipt of treatment, heterogeneous treatment effects, and function-valued outcomes. Our framework covers the special case of exogenous receipt of treatment, either conditional on controls or unconditionally as in randomized control trials. In the latter case, our approach produces efficient estimators and honest bands for (functional) average treatment effects (ATE) and quantile treatment effects (QTE). To make informative inference possible, we assume that key reduced form predictive relationships are approximately sparse. This assumption allows the use of regularization and selection methods to estimate those relations, and we provide methods for post-regularization and post-selection inference that are uniformly valid (honest) across a wide-range of models. We show that a key ingredient enabling honest inference is the use of orthogonal or doubly robust moment conditions in estimating certain reduced form functional parameters. We illustrate the use of the proposed methods with an application to estimating the effect of 401(k) eligibility and participation on accumulated assets.