Nicolas Langrené

René Aïd, Luciano Campi, Nicolas Langrené et al.

In this paper, we present a probabilistic numerical algorithm combining dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulations and local basis regressions to solve non-stationary optimal multiple switching problems in infinite horizon. We provide the rate of convergence of the method in terms of the time step used to discretize the problem, of the size of the local hypercubes involved in the regressions, and of the truncating time horizon. To make the method viable for problems in high dimension and long time horizon, we extend a memory reduction method to the general Euler scheme, so that, when performing the numerical resolution, the storage of the Monte Carlo simulation paths is not needed. Then, we apply this algorithm to a model of optimal investment in power plants. This model takes into account electricity demand, cointegrated fuel prices, carbon price and random outages of power plants. It computes the optimal level of investment in each generation technology, considered as a whole, w.r.t. the electricity spot price. This electricity price is itself built according to a new extended structural model. In particular, it is a function of several factors, among which the installed capacities. The evolution of the optimal generation mix is illustrated on a realistic numerical problem in dimension eight, i.e. with two different technologies and six random factors.

Othmane Zarhali, Nicolas Langrené

A fast simulation framework for stochastic Volterra processes based on Random Fourier Features (RFF) approximation of the kernel is developed. After recalling the main properties of Volterra processes and reviewing existing numerical simulation methods, an accelerated scheme is introduced that relies on a spectral representation of the kernel. A particular attention is devoted to sampling from the kernel spectral density using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, whose efficiency and stability bring more convenience than alternative sampling procedures. Quantitative guarantees for the proposed method are established, including moment estimates and strong error bounds. The approach is further compared with the kernel approximation by sum of exponentials commonly used in the literature, emphasizing the broader generality of the present framework. As a primary application, Volterra processes associated with the Stationary fractional Brownian Motion (S-fBM) kernel are investigated. A spectral density representation is derived in closed form using hypergeometric functions, a condition for positive definiteness is established and explicit truncation as well as Monte Carlo error bounds are provided for the RFF approximation in this setting. Numerical experiments in dimensions one and two illustrate the accuracy of the kernel approximation, the reliable recovery of model parameters and the competitiveness of the accelerated simulation scheme in terms of computational efficiency and both weak and strong error performance.

Banghao Chen, Zhaofeng Zhang, Nicolas Langrené et al.

This comprehensive review delves into the pivotal role of prompt engineering in unleashing the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). The development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), from its inception in the 1950s to the emergence of advanced neural networks and deep learning architectures, has made a breakthrough in LLMs, with models such as GPT-4o and Claude-3, and in Vision-Language Models (VLMs), with models such as CLIP and ALIGN. Prompt engineering is the process of structuring inputs, which has emerged as a crucial technique to maximize the utility and accuracy of these models. This paper explores both foundational and advanced methodologies of prompt engineering, including techniques such as self-consistency, chain-of-thought, and generated knowledge, which significantly enhance model performance. Additionally, it examines the prompt method of VLMs through innovative approaches such as Context Optimization (CoOp), Conditional Context Optimization (CoCoOp), and Multimodal Prompt Learning (MaPLe). Critical to this discussion is the aspect of AI security, particularly adversarial attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in prompt engineering. Strategies to mitigate these risks and enhance model robustness are thoroughly reviewed. The evaluation of prompt methods is also addressed through both subjective and objective metrics, ensuring a robust analysis of their efficacy. This review also reflects the essential role of prompt engineering in advancing AI capabilities, providing a structured framework for future research and application.

Achref Bachouch, Côme Huré, Nicolas Langrené et al.

This paper presents several numerical applications of deep learning-based algorithms that have been introduced in [HPBL18]. Numerical and comparative tests using TensorFlow illustrate the performance of our different algorithms, namely control learning by performance iteration (algorithms NNcontPI and ClassifPI), control learning by hybrid iteration (algorithms Hybrid-Now and Hybrid-LaterQ), on the 100-dimensional nonlinear PDEs examples from [EHJ17] and on quadratic backward stochastic differential equations as in [CR16]. We also performed tests on low-dimension control problems such as an option hedging problem in finance, as well as energy storage problems arising in the valuation of gas storage and in microgrid management. Numerical results and comparisons to quantization-type algorithms Qknn, as an efficient algorithm to numerically solve low-dimensional control problems, are also provided; and some corresponding codes are available on https://github.com/comeh/.

Zhaofeng Zhang, Banghao Chen, Shengxin Zhu et al.

In traditional quantitative trading practice, navigating the complicated and dynamic financial market presents a persistent challenge. Fully capturing various market variables, including long-term information, as well as essential signals that may lead to profit remains a difficult task for learning algorithms. In order to tackle this challenge, this paper introduces quantformer, an enhanced neural network architecture based on transformer, to build investment factors. By transfer learning from sentiment analysis, quantformer not only exploits its original inherent advantages in capturing long-range dependencies and modeling complex data relationships, but is also able to solve tasks with numerical inputs and accurately forecast future returns over a given period. This work collects more than 5,000,000 rolling data of 4,601 stocks in the Chinese capital market from 2010 to 2023. The results of this study demonstrate the model's superior performance in predicting stock trends compared with other 100-factor-based quantitative strategies. Notably, the model's innovative use of transformer-like model to establish factors, in conjunction with market sentiment information, has been shown to enhance the accuracy of trading signals significantly, thereby offering promising implications for the future of quantitative trading strategies.

Nicolas Langrené, Xavier Warin, Pierre Gruet

Rahimi and Recht (2007) introduced the idea of decomposing positive definite shift-invariant kernels by randomly sampling from their spectral distribution. This famous technique, known as Random Fourier Features (RFF), is in principle applicable to any such kernel whose spectral distribution can be identified and simulated. In practice, however, it is usually applied to the Gaussian kernel because of its simplicity, since its spectral distribution is also Gaussian. Clearly, simple spectral sampling formulas would be desirable for broader classes of kernels. In this paper, we show that the spectral distribution of positive definite isotropic kernels in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ for all $d\geq1$ can be decomposed as a scale mixture of $α$-stable random vectors, and we identify the mixing distribution as a function of the kernel. This constructive decomposition provides a simple and ready-to-use spectral sampling formula for many multivariate positive definite shift-invariant kernels, including exponential power kernels, generalized Matérn kernels, generalized Cauchy kernels, as well as newly introduced kernels such as the Beta, Kummer, and Tricomi kernels. In particular, we retrieve the fact that the spectral distributions of these kernels are scale mixtures of the multivariate Gaussian distribution, along with an explicit mixing distribution formula. This result has broad applications for support vector machines, kernel ridge regression, Gaussian processes, and other kernel-based machine learning techniques for which the random Fourier features technique is applicable.

Nicolas Langrené, Xavier Warin, Pierre Gruet

To speed up Gaussian process inference, a number of fast kernel matrix-vector multiplication (MVM) approximation algorithms have been proposed over the years. In this paper, we establish an exact fast kernel MVM algorithm based on exact kernel decomposition into weighted empirical cumulative distribution functions, compatible with a class of kernels which includes multivariate Matérn kernels with half-integer smoothness parameter. This algorithm uses a divide-and-conquer approach, during which sorting outputs are stored in a data structure. We also propose a new algorithm to take into account some linear fixed effects predictor function. Our numerical experiments confirm that our algorithm is very effective for low-dimensional Gaussian process inference problems with hundreds of thousands of data points. An implementation of our algorithm is available at https://gitlab.com/warin/fastgaussiankernelregression.git.

Seyedali Meghdadi, Guido Tack, Ariel Liebman et al.

To support N-1 pre-fault transient stability assessment, this paper introduces a new data collection method in a data-driven algorithm incorporating the knowledge of power system dynamics. The domain knowledge on how the disturbance effect will propagate from the fault location to the rest of the network is leveraged to recognise the dominant conditions that determine the stability of a system. Accordingly, we introduce a new concept called Fault-Affected Area, which provides crucial information regarding the unstable region of operation. This information is embedded in an augmented dataset to train an ensemble model using an instance transfer learning framework. The test results on the IEEE 39-bus system verify that this model can accurately predict the stability of previously unseen operational scenarios while reducing the risk of false prediction of unstable instances compared to standard approaches.

Wen Chen, Nicolas Langrené

In this paper, we develop a deep neural network approach to solve a lifetime expected mortality-weighted utility-based model for optimal consumption in the decumulation phase of a defined contribution pension system. We formulate this problem as a multi-period finite-horizon stochastic control problem and train a deep neural network policy representing consumption decisions. The optimal consumption policy is determined by personal information about the retiree such as age, wealth, risk aversion and bequest motive, as well as a series of economic and financial variables including inflation rates and asset returns jointly simulated from a proposed seven-factor economic scenario generator calibrated from market data. We use the Australian pension system as an example, with consideration of the government-funded means-tested Age Pension and other practical aspects such as fund management fees. The key findings from our numerical tests are as follows. First, our deep neural network optimal consumption policy, which adapts to changes in market conditions, outperforms deterministic drawdown rules proposed in the literature. Moreover, the out-of-sample outperformance ratios increase as the number of training iterations increases, eventually reaching outperformance on all testing scenarios after less than 10 minutes of training. Second, a sensitivity analysis is performed to reveal how risk aversion and bequest motives change the consumption over a retiree's lifetime under this utility framework. Third, we provide the optimal consumption rate with different starting wealth balances. We observe that optimal consumption rates are not proportional to initial wealth due to the Age Pension payment. Forth, with the same initial wealth balance and utility parameter settings, the optimal consumption level is different between males and females due to gender differences in mortality.

Côme Huré, Huyên Pham, Achref Bachouch et al.

This paper develops algorithms for high-dimensional stochastic control problems based on deep learning and dynamic programming. Unlike classical approximate dynamic programming approaches, we first approximate the optimal policy by means of neural networks in the spirit of deep reinforcement learning, and then the value function by Monte Carlo regression. This is achieved in the dynamic programming recursion by performance or hybrid iteration, and regress now methods from numerical probabilities. We provide a theoretical justification of these algorithms. Consistency and rate of convergence for the control and value function estimates are analyzed and expressed in terms of the universal approximation error of the neural networks, and of the statistical error when estimating network function, leaving aside the optimization error. Numerical results on various applications are presented in a companion paper (arxiv.org/abs/1812.05916) and illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithms.