Larry Pileggi

Amritanshu Pandey, Marko Jereminov, Martin R. Wagner et al.

Robust solving of critical large power flow cases (with 50k or greater buses) forms the backbone of planning and operation of any large connected power grid. At present, reliable convergence with applications of existing power flow tools to large power systems is contingent upon a good initial guess for the system state. To enable robust convergence for large scale systems starting with an arbitrary initial guess, we extend our equivalent circuit formulation for power flow analysis to include a novel continuation method based on transmission line (Tx) stepping. While various continuation methods have been proposed for use with the traditional PQV power flow formulation, these methods have either failed to completely solve the problem or have resulted in convergence to a low voltage solution. The proposed Tx Stepping method in this paper demonstrates robust convergence to the high voltage solution from an arbitrary initial guess. Example systems, including 75k+ bus test cases representing different loading and operating conditions for Eastern Interconnection of the U.S. power grid, are solved from arbitrary initial guesses.Interconnection of the U.S. power grid, are solved from arbitrary initial guesses.

Amritanshu Pandey, Marko Jereminov, Gabriela Hug et al.

Recent advances in power system simulation have included the use of complex rectangular current and voltage (I-V) variables for solving the power flow and three-phase power flow problems. This formulation has demonstrated superior convergence properties over conventional polar coordinate based formulations for three-phase power flow, but has failed to replicate the same advantages for power flow in general due to convergence issues with systems containing PV buses. In this paper, we demonstrate how circuit simulation techniques can provide robust convergence for any complex I-V formulation that is derived from our split equivalent circuit representation. Application to power grid test systems with up to 10000 buses demonstrates consistent global convergence to the correct physical solution from arbitrary initial conditions.

Amritanshu Pandey, Marko Jereminov, Xin Li et al.

In this paper we propose a semi-empirical modeling framework for aggregated electrical load and generation using an equivalent circuit formulation. The proposed models are based on complex rectangular voltage and current state variables that provide a generalized form for accurately representing any transmission and distribution components. The model is based on the split equivalent circuit formulation that was previously shown to unify power flow, three phase power flow, harmonic power flow, and transient analyses. Importantly, this formulation establishes variables that are analytical and are compatible with model fitting and machine learning approaches. The parameters for the proposed semi-empirical load and generation models are synthesized from measurement data and can enable real-time simulations for time varying aggregated loads and generation.

Carmel Fiscko, Aayushya Agarwal, Yihan Ruan et al.

We present a stochastic first-order optimization method specialized for deep neural networks (DNNs), ECCO-DNN. This method models the optimization variable trajectory as a dynamical system and develops a discretization algorithm that adaptively selects step sizes based on the trajectory's shape. This provides two key insights: designing the dynamical system for fast continuous-time convergence and developing a time-stepping algorithm to adaptively select step sizes based on principles of numerical integration and neural network structure. The result is an optimizer with performance that is insensitive to hyperparameter variations and that achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art optimizers including ADAM, SGD, RMSProp, and AdaGrad. We demonstrate this in training DNN models and datasets, including CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 using ECCO-DNN and find that ECCO-DNN's single hyperparameter can be changed by three orders of magnitude without affecting the trained models' accuracies. ECCO-DNN's insensitivity reduces the data and computation needed for hyperparameter tuning, making it advantageous for rapid prototyping and for applications with new datasets. To validate the efficacy of our proposed optimizer, we train an LSTM architecture on a household power consumption dataset with ECCO-DNN and achieve an optimal mean-square-error without tuning hyperparameters.

Shimiao Li, Amritanshu Pandey, Larry Pileggi

When applied to a real-world safety critical system like the power grid, general machine learning methods suffer from expensive training, non-physical solutions, and limited interpretability. To address these challenges for power grids, many recent works have explored the inclusion of grid physics (i.e., domain expertise) into their method design, primarily through including system constraints and technical limits, reducing search space and defining meaningful features in latent space. Yet, there is no general methodology to evaluate the practicality of these approaches in power grid tasks, and limitations exist regarding scalability, generalization, interpretability, etc. This work formalizes a new concept of physical interpretability which assesses how a ML model makes predictions in a physically meaningful way and introduces an evaluation methodology that identifies a set of attributes that a practical method should satisfy. Inspired by the evaluation attributes, the paper further develops a novel contingency analysis warm starter for MadIoT cyberattack, based on a conditional Gaussian random field. This method serves as an instance of an ML model that can incorporate diverse domain knowledge and improve on these identified attributes. Experiments validate that the warm starter significantly boosts the efficiency of contingency analysis for MadIoT attack even with shallow NN architectures.

Shimiao Li, Aaron Tuor, Draguna Vrabie et al.

Learning to optimize (L2O) parametric approximations of AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF) solutions offers the potential for fast, reusable decision-making in real-time power system operations. However, the inherent nonconvexity of AC-OPF results in challenging optimization landscapes, and standard learning approaches often fail to converge to feasible, high-quality solutions. This work introduces a \textit{homotopy-guided self-supervised L2O method} for parametric AC-OPF problems. The key idea is to construct a continuous deformation of the objective and constraints during training, beginning from a relaxed problem with a broad basin of attraction and gradually transforming it toward the original problem. The resulting learning process improves convergence stability and promotes feasibility without requiring labeled optimal solutions or external solvers. We evaluate the proposed method on standard IEEE AC-OPF benchmarks and show that homotopy-guided L2O significantly increases feasibility rates compared to non-homotopy baselines, while achieving objective values comparable to full OPF solvers. These findings demonstrate the promise of homotopy-based heuristics for scalable, constraint-aware L2O in power system optimization.

Shimiao Li, Jan Drgona, Shrirang Abhyankar et al.

Recent years have seen a rich literature of data-driven approaches designed for power grid applications. However, insufficient consideration of domain knowledge can impose a high risk to the practicality of the methods. Specifically, ignoring the grid-specific spatiotemporal patterns (in load, generation, and topology, etc.) can lead to outputting infeasible, unrealizable, or completely meaningless predictions on new inputs. To address this concern, this paper investigates real-world operational data to provide insights into power grid behavioral patterns, including the time-varying topology, load, and generation, as well as the spatial differences (in peak hours, diverse styles) between individual loads and generations. Then based on these observations, we evaluate the generalization risks in some existing ML works causedby ignoring these grid-specific patterns in model design and training.

Martin R. Wagner, Amritanshu Pandey, Marko Jereminov et al.

Recent advances in steady-state analysis of power systems have introduced the equivalent split-circuit approach and corresponding continuation methods that can reliably find the correct physical solution of large-scale power system problems. The improvement in robustness provided by these developments are the basis for improvements in other fields of power system research. Probabilistic Power Flow studies are one of the areas of impact. This paper will describe a Simple Random Sampling Monte Carlo approach for probabilistic contingency analyses of transmission line power systems. The results are compared with those from Monte Carlo simulations using a standard power flow tool. Lastly, probabilistic contingency studies on two publicly available power system cases are presented.

Shimiao Li, Guannan Qu, Bryan Hooi et al.

Power grids increasingly need real-time situational awareness under the ever-evolving cyberthreat landscape. Advances in snapshot-based system identification approaches have enabled accurately estimating states and topology from a snapshot of measurement data, under random bad data and topology errors. However, modern interactive, targeted false data can stay undetectable to these methods, and significantly compromise estimation accuracy. This work advances system identification that combines snapshot-based method with time-series model via Bayesian Integration, to advance cyber resiliency against both random and targeted false data. Using a distance-based time-series model, this work can leverage historical data of different distributions induced by changes in grid topology and other settings. The normal system behavior captured from historical data is integrated into system identification through a Bayesian treatment, to make solutions robust to targeted false data. We experiment on mixed random anomalies (bad data, topology error) and targeted false data injection attack (FDIA) to demonstrate our method's 1) cyber resilience: achieving over 70% reduction in estimation error under FDIA; 2) anomalous data identification: being able to alarm and locate anomalous data; 3) almost linear scalability: achieving comparable speed with the snapshot-based baseline, both taking <1min per time tick on the large 2,383-bus system using a laptop CPU.

Aayushya Agarwal, Gauri Joshi, Larry Pileggi

Federated learning harnesses the power of distributed optimization to train a unified machine learning model across separate clients. However, heterogeneous data distributions and computational workloads can lead to inconsistent updates and limit model performance. This work tackles these challenges by proposing FedECADO, a new algorithm inspired by a dynamical system representation of the federated learning process. FedECADO addresses non-IID data distribution through an aggregate sensitivity model that reflects the amount of data processed by each client. To tackle heterogeneous computing, we design a multi-rate integration method with adaptive step-size selections that synchronizes active client updates in continuous time. Compared to prominent techniques, including FedProx and FedNova, FedECADO achieves higher classification accuracies in numerous heterogeneous scenarios.

Aayushya Agarwal, Larry Pileggi, Gauri Joshi

Hyperparameter selection is critical for stable and efficient convergence of heterogeneous federated learning, where clients differ in computational capabilities, and data distributions are non-IID. Tuning hyperparameters is a manual and computationally expensive process as the hyperparameter space grows combinatorially with the number of clients. To address this, we introduce an end-to-end adaptive federated learning method in which both clients and central agents adaptively select their local learning rates and momentum parameters. Our approach models federated learning as a dynamical system, allowing us to draw on principles from numerical simulation and physical design. Through this perspective, selecting momentum parameters equates to critically damping the system for fast, stable convergence, while learning rates for clients and central servers are adaptively selected to satisfy accuracy properties from numerical simulation. The result is an adaptive, momentum-based federated learning algorithm in which the learning rates for clients and servers are dynamically adjusted and controlled by a single, global hyperparameter. By designing a fully integrated solution for both adaptive client updates and central agent aggregation, our method is capable of handling key challenges of heterogeneous federated learning, including objective inconsistency and client drift. Importantly, our approach achieves fast convergence while being insensitive to the choice of the global hyperparameter, making it well-suited for rapid prototyping and scalable deployment. Compared to state-of-the-art adaptive methods, our framework is shown to deliver superior convergence for heterogeneous federated learning while eliminating the need for hyperparameter tuning both client and server updates.

Priya L. Donti, Aayushya Agarwal, Neeraj Vijay Bedmutha et al.

In recent years, the ML community has seen surges of interest in both adversarially robust learning and implicit layers, but connections between these two areas have seldom been explored. In this work, we combine innovations from these areas to tackle the problem of N-k security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF). N-k SCOPF is a core problem for the operation of electrical grids, and aims to schedule power generation in a manner that is robust to potentially k simultaneous equipment outages. Inspired by methods in adversarially robust training, we frame N-k SCOPF as a minimax optimization problem - viewing power generation settings as adjustable parameters and equipment outages as (adversarial) attacks - and solve this problem via gradient-based techniques. The loss function of this minimax problem involves resolving implicit equations representing grid physics and operational decisions, which we differentiate through via the implicit function theorem. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework in solving N-3 SCOPF, which has traditionally been considered as prohibitively expensive to solve given that the problem size depends combinatorially on the number of potential outages.

Shimiao Li, Amritanshu Pandey, Bryan Hooi et al.

Given sensor readings over time from a power grid, how can we accurately detect when an anomaly occurs? A key part of achieving this goal is to use the network of power grid sensors to quickly detect, in real-time, when any unusual events, whether natural faults or malicious, occur on the power grid. Existing bad-data detectors in the industry lack the sophistication to robustly detect broad types of anomalies, especially those due to emerging cyber-attacks, since they operate on a single measurement snapshot of the grid at a time. New ML methods are more widely applicable, but generally do not consider the impact of topology change on sensor measurements and thus cannot accommodate regular topology adjustments in historical data. Hence, we propose DYNWATCH, a domain knowledge based and topology-aware algorithm for anomaly detection using sensors placed on a dynamic grid. Our approach is accurate, outperforming existing approaches by 20% or more (F-measure) in experiments; and fast, running in less than 1.7ms on average per time tick per sensor on a 60K+ branch case using a laptop computer, and scaling linearly in the size of the graph.

Marko Jereminov, Bryan Hooi, Amritanshu Pandey et al.

Aggregated load models, such as PQ and ZIP, are used to represent the approximated load demand at specific buses in grid simulation and optimization problems. In this paper we examine the impact of model choice on the optimal power flow solution and demonstrate that it is possible for different load models to represent the same amount of real and reactive power at the optimal solution yet correspond to completely different grid operating points. We introduce the metric derived from the maximum power transfer theorem to identify the behavior of an aggregated model in the OPF formulation to indicate its possible limitations. A dataset from the Carnegie Mellon campus is used to characterize three types of load models using a time-series machine learning algorithm, from which the optimal power flow results demonstrate that the choice of load model type has a significant impact on the solution set points. For example, our results show that the PQ load accurately characterizes the CMU data behavior correctly for only 16.7% of the cases.