Robin Karlsson

Robin Karlsson, Alexander Carballo, Keisuke Fujii et al.

Cognitive scientists believe adaptable intelligent agents like humans perform reasoning through learned causal mental simulations of agents and environments. The problem of learning such simulations is called predictive world modeling. Recently, reinforcement learning (RL) agents leveraging world models have achieved SOTA performance in game environments. However, understanding how to apply the world modeling approach in complex real-world environments relevant to mobile robots remains an open question. In this paper, we present a framework for learning a probabilistic predictive world model for real-world road environments. We implement the model using a hierarchical VAE (HVAE) capable of predicting a diverse set of fully observed plausible worlds from accumulated sensor observations. While prior HVAE methods require complete states as ground truth for learning, we present a novel sequential training method to allow HVAEs to learn to predict complete states from partially observed states only. We experimentally demonstrate accurate spatial structure prediction of deterministic regions achieving 96.21 IoU, and close the gap to perfect prediction by 62% for stochastic regions using the best prediction. By extending HVAEs to cases where complete ground truth states do not exist, we facilitate continual learning of spatial prediction as a step towards realizing explainable and comprehensive predictive world models for real-world mobile robotics applications. Code is available at https://github.com/robin-karlsson0/predictive-world-models.

Robin Karlsson, Alexander Carballo, Francisco Lepe-Salazar et al.

Human beings cooperatively navigate rule-constrained environments by adhering to mutually known navigational patterns, which may be represented as directional pathways or road lanes. Inferring these navigational patterns from incompletely observed environments is required for intelligent mobile robots operating in unmapped locations. However, algorithmically defining these navigational patterns is nontrivial. This paper presents the first self-supervised learning (SSL) method for learning to infer navigational patterns in real-world environments from partial observations only. We explain how geometric data augmentation, predictive world modeling, and an information-theoretic regularizer enables our model to predict an unbiased local directional soft lane probability (DSLP) field in the limit of infinite data. We demonstrate how to infer global navigational patterns by fitting a maximum likelihood graph to the DSLP field. Experiments show that our SSL model outperforms two SOTA supervised lane graph prediction models on the nuScenes dataset. We propose our SSL method as a scalable and interpretable continual learning paradigm for navigation by perception. Code is available at https://github.com/robin-karlsson0/dslp.

Yingjie Niu, Ming Ding, Maoning Ge et al.

Transformer-based models have gained popularity in the field of natural language processing (NLP) and are extensively utilized in computer vision tasks and multi-modal models such as GPT4. This paper presents a novel method to enhance the explainability of Transformer-based image classification models. Our method aims to improve trust in classification results and empower users to gain a deeper understanding of the model for downstream tasks by providing visualizations of class-specific maps. We introduce two modules: the ``Relationship Weighted Out" and the ``Cut" modules. The ``Relationship Weighted Out" module focuses on extracting class-specific information from intermediate layers, enabling us to highlight relevant features. Additionally, the ``Cut" module performs fine-grained feature decomposition, taking into account factors such as position, texture, and color. By integrating these modules, we generate dense class-specific visual explainability maps. We validate our method with extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments on the ImageNet dataset. Furthermore, we conduct a large number of experiments on the LRN dataset, specifically designed for automatic driving danger alerts, to evaluate the explainability of our method in complex backgrounds. The results demonstrate a significant improvement over previous methods. Moreover, we conduct ablation experiments to validate the effectiveness of each module. Through these experiments, we are able to confirm the respective contributions of each module, thus solidifying the overall effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Robin Karlsson, Francisco Lepe-Salazar, Kazuya Takeda

General-purpose mobile robots need to complete tasks without exact human instructions. Large language models (LLMs) is a promising direction for realizing commonsense world knowledge and reasoning-based planning. Vision-language models (VLMs) transform environment percepts into vision-language semantics interpretable by LLMs. However, completing complex tasks often requires reasoning about information beyond what is currently perceived. We propose latent compositional semantic embeddings z* as a principled learning-based knowledge representation for queryable spatio-semantic memories. We mathematically prove that z* can always be found, and the optimal z* is the centroid for any set Z. We derive a probabilistic bound for estimating separability of related and unrelated semantics. We prove that z* is discoverable by iterative optimization by gradient descent from visual appearance and singular descriptions. We experimentally verify our findings on four embedding spaces incl. CLIP and SBERT. Our results show that z* can represent up to 10 semantics encoded by SBERT, and up to 100 semantics for ideal uniformly distributed high-dimensional embeddings. We demonstrate that a simple dense VLM trained on the COCO-Stuff dataset can learn z* for 181 overlapping semantics by 42.23 mIoU, while improving conventional non-overlapping open-vocabulary segmentation performance by +3.48 mIoU compared with a popular SOTA model.

Yan Feng, Alexander Carballo, Keisuke Fujii et al.

Pedestrian action prediction is of great significance for many applications such as autonomous driving. However, state-of-the-art methods lack explainability to make trustworthy predictions. In this paper, a novel framework called MulCPred is proposed that explains its predictions based on multi-modal concepts represented by training samples. Previous concept-based methods have limitations including: 1) they cannot directly apply to multi-modal cases; 2) they lack locality to attend to details in the inputs; 3) they suffer from mode collapse. These limitations are tackled accordingly through the following approaches: 1) a linear aggregator to integrate the activation results of the concepts into predictions, which associates concepts of different modalities and provides ante-hoc explanations of the relevance between the concepts and the predictions; 2) a channel-wise recalibration module that attends to local spatiotemporal regions, which enables the concepts with locality; 3) a feature regularization loss that encourages the concepts to learn diverse patterns. MulCPred is evaluated on multiple datasets and tasks. Both qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate that MulCPred is promising in improving the explainability of pedestrian action prediction without obvious performance degradation. Furthermore, by removing unrecognizable concepts from MulCPred, the cross-dataset prediction performance is improved, indicating the feasibility of further generalizability of MulCPred.

Robin Karlsson, Go Suzui

Deploying massive large language models (LLMs) as continuous cognitive engines for robotics is bottlenecked by the time-to-first-token (TTFT) latency required to process extensive state histories. Existing solutions like RAG or sliding windows compromise global context or incur prohibitive re-computation costs. We formalize the optimal task structure for minimizing latency and theoretically prove that prefix stability, incremental extensibility, and asynchronous state reconciliation are necessary conditions for real-time performance. Building on these proofs, we introduce the Cached State Representation (CSR) framework as the practical instantiation of these properties, ensuring optimal KV-cache reuse. To sustain these properties over infinite horizons, we further propose an Asynchronous State Reconciliation (ASR) algorithm that offloads state memory eviction to a parallel computational resource to eliminate latency spikes. On a physical robot wirelessly connected to an on-premise GPU server, CSR achieves a 26-fold latency reduction (14.67s to 0.56s) for 120K token contexts with a 235B parameter model compared to a standard baseline. On an embodied AI benchmark, we achieve SOTA recall (0.836 vs. 0.459) while maintaining RAG-level latency. ASR is validated to sustain bounded, spike-free TTFT over 10 eviction cycles in continuous real-world operation. Together, CSR and ASR enable massive LLMs to function as continuously operating, high-frequency (> 2 Hz) embodied policies.

Robin Karlsson, Tomoki Hayashi, Keisuke Fujii et al.

Recent self-supervised models have demonstrated equal or better performance than supervised methods, opening for AI systems to learn visual representations from practically unlimited data. However, these methods are typically classification-based and thus ineffective for learning high-resolution feature maps that preserve precise spatial information. This work introduces superpixels to improve self-supervised learning of dense semantically rich visual concept embeddings. Decomposing images into a small set of visually coherent regions reduces the computational complexity by $\mathcal{O}(1000)$ while preserving detail. We experimentally show that contrasting over regions improves the effectiveness of contrastive learning methods, extends their applicability to high-resolution images, improves overclustering performance, superpixels are better than grids, and regional masking improves performance. The expressiveness of our dense embeddings is demonstrated by improving the SOTA unsupervised semantic segmentation benchmark on Cityscapes, and for convolutional models on COCO.

Robin Karlsson, David Robert Wong, Simon Thompson et al.

Interconnected road lanes are a central concept for navigating urban roads. Currently, most autonomous vehicles rely on preconstructed lane maps as designing an algorithmic model is difficult. However, the generation and maintenance of such maps is costly and hinders large-scale adoption of autonomous vehicle technology. This paper presents the first self-supervised learning method to train a model to infer a spatially grounded lane-level road network graph based on a dense segmented representation of the road scene generated from onboard sensors. A formal road lane network model is presented and proves that any structured road scene can be represented by a directed acyclic graph of at most depth three while retaining the notion of intersection regions, and that this is the most compressed representation. The formal model is implemented by a hybrid neural and search-based model, utilizing a novel barrier function loss formulation for robust learning from partial labels. Experiments are conducted for all common road intersection layouts. Results show that the model can generalize to new road layouts, unlike previous approaches, demonstrating its potential for real-world application as a practical learning-based lane-level map generator.

Robin Karlsson, David Robert Wong, Kazunari Kawabata et al.

Robust sensing and perception in adverse weather conditions remain one of the biggest challenges for realizing reliable autonomous vehicle mobility services. Prior work has established that rainfall rate is a useful measure for the adversity of atmospheric weather conditions. This work presents a probabilistic hierarchical Bayesian model that infers rainfall rate from automotive lidar point cloud sequences with high accuracy and reliability. The model is a hierarchical mixture of experts model, or a probabilistic decision tree, with gating and expert nodes consisting of variational logistic and linear regression models. Experimental data used to train and evaluate the model is collected in a large-scale rainfall experiment facility from both stationary and moving vehicle platforms. The results show prediction accuracy comparable to the measurement resolution of a disdrometer, and the soundness and usefulness of the uncertainty estimation. The model achieves RMSE 2.42\,mm/h after filtering out uncertain predictions. The error is comparable to the mean rainfall rate change of 3.5\,mm/h between measurements. Model parameter studies show how predictive performance changes with tree depth, sampling duration, and crop box dimension. A second experiment demonstrates the predictability of higher rainfall above 300\,mm/h using a different lidar sensor, demonstrating sensor independence.

Robin Karlsson, Erik Sjoberg

Humans navigate complex environments in an organized yet flexible manner, adapting to the context and implicit social rules. Understanding these naturally learned patterns of behavior is essential for applications such as autonomous vehicles. However, algorithmically defining these implicit rules of human behavior remains difficult. This work proposes a novel self-supervised method for training a probabilistic network model to estimate the regions humans are most likely to drive in as well as a multimodal representation of the inferred direction of travel at each point. The model is trained on individual human trajectories conditioned on a representation of the driving environment. The model is shown to successfully generalize to new road scenes, demonstrating potential for real-world application as a prior for socially acceptable driving behavior in challenging or ambiguous scenarios which are poorly handled by explicit traffic rules.